'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/266/original/2020-07-28_06-42-44.png?1595886197" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148266"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/267/original/2020-07-28_06-47-55.png?1595886499" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148267"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/koei-tecmo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20277:1" rel="noopener">Koei Tecmo (3635 JP)</a> - Koei Tecmo produced the most-improved Results Score among large-cap companies yesterday. Colleague <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio Kato</a>'s April Insight<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/koei-tecmo-plenty-of-headroom-to-play-with" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:38880" rel="noopener"> Plenty of Headroom to Play With</a> called this correctly - <em>"the strength of Sangokushi Senryaku Ban and a strong game pipeline should help the company continue to outperform significantly."</em> The shares are now Overbought, and the valuation has never been as extreme. A Results Score of 30 is 'perfection'. We would trim into any results-induced move above ¥3,500.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>40 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 14 Positive / 0 Neutral / 26 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change: -</strong>3.3</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -10.6% Quarter YoY / -3.0% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.1ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 18%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>19 Annual • 12 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 6 Positive / 0 Neutral / 13 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 2 Positive / 0 Neutral / 10 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -11.5</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
Koei Tecmo (3635 JP) - Koei Tecmo produced the most-improved Results Score among large-cap companies yesterday. Colleague Mio Kato's April Insight Plenty of Headroom to Play With called this correctly - "the strength of Sangokushi Senryaku Ban and a strong game pipeline should help the company continue to outperform significantly." The shares are now Overbought, and the valuation has never been as extreme. A Results Score of 30 is 'perfection'. We would trim into any results-induced move above ¥3,500.
DAILY STATS
40 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 14 Positive / 0 Neutral / 26 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -3.3

Average % Change in Revenue: -10.6% Quarter YoY / -3.0% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.1ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 18%
 19 Annual • 12 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 6 Positive / 0 Neutral / 13 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 2 Positive / 0 Neutral / 10 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -11.5


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 27th July - Koei Tecmo, Nitto Denko, MMC, Stanley Electric, Exedy

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/136/651/original/2020-05-29_06-37-52.png?1590701909" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="136651"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>LIMPING HOME</strong> - 42 companies reported results on Thursday of which 32 were for the full-year. Of these, 38% made FY2021 forecasts of which only three scored positively. Seventy more companies will announce today, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olympus-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:356:1" rel="noopener">Olympus Corp (7733 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamaha-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7411:1" rel="noopener">Yamaha Motor (7272 JP)</a>, leaving only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a> from the 'trillion yen club' for next week. </p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsLIMPING HOME - 42 companies reported results on Thursday of which 32 were for the full-year. Of these, 38% made FY2021 forecasts of which only three scored positively. Seventy more companies will announce today, including Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP), Olympus Corp (7733 JP), and Yamaha Motor (7272 JP), leaving only Toshiba (6502 JP) from the 'trillion yen club' for next week. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 28th May - Nissan, Nikon & Toray

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/531/original/2020-02-06_03-39-10.png?1580933731" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116531"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>5TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP</strong> - Wednesday saw 171 Results and 65 Forecast/Revision announcements. The Results Score set another new three-year low losing 16bps to reach 0.35, while the Forecast/Revision Score shed 7bps to reach 0.08. The sogo shosha trading company results were weak, with the exception of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu (8001 JP)</a>. Amongst large caps, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marubeni-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7463:1" rel="noopener">Marubeni (8002 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dena-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:747:1" rel="noopener">DeNA(2432 JP)</a> had Operating Losses, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mazda-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20528:1" rel="noopener">Mazda Motor (7261 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujikura-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10768:1" rel="noopener">Fujikura (5803 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daicel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10533:1" rel="noopener">Daicel (4202 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/furukawa-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5193:1" rel="noopener">Furukawa Electric (5801 JP)</a> saw steep quarterly year-on-year OP declines. Amongst the 'winners' were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-enix-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15003:1" rel="noopener">Square Enix (9684 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rengo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20278:1" rel="noopener">Rengo (3941 JP)</a>.</p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• SECTOR TIMELINE •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/532/original/2020-02-06_03-42-28.png?1580934310" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116532"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>SECTOR TIMELINE</strong> - The <strong>Wholesale</strong> Sector was the largest loser yesterday with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi (8058 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kanematsu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5810:1" rel="noopener">Kanematsu (8020 JP)</a> joining Marubeni in posting poor results. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-nippon-sanso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15756:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Nippon Sanso (4091 JP)</a> slowing momentum and downward revision saw the <strong>Chemical</strong> Sector move lower again. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2167:1" rel="noopener">AGC (5201 JP)</a> initial forecast for FY2020 helped the <strong>Other Materials</strong> Sector recover some ground. </p>

Source • Japan Analytics5TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - Wednesday saw 171 Results and 65 Forecast/Revision announcements. The Results Score set another new three-year low losing 16bps to reach 0.35, while the Forecast/Revision Score shed 7bps to reach 0.08. The sogo shosha trading company results were weak, with the exception of Itochu (8001 JP). Amongst large caps, Marubeni (8002 JP) and DeNA(2432 JP) had Operating Losses, while Mazda Motor (7261 JP), Fujikura (5803 JP), Daicel (4202 JP), and Furukawa Electric (5801 JP) saw steep quarterly year-on-year OP declines. Amongst the 'winners' were Square Enix (9684 JP), and Rengo (3941 JP).• SECTOR TIMELINE •Source • Japan AnalyticsSECTOR TIMELINE - The Wholesale Sector was the largest loser yesterday with Mitsubishi (8058 JP) and Kanematsu (8020 JP) joining Marubeni in posting poor results. Taiyo Nippon Sanso (4091 JP) slowing momentum and downward revision saw the Chemical Sector move lower again. AGC (5201 JP) initial forecast for FY2020 helped the Other Materials Sector recover some ground. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 5th February ▲5201 4202 6269 ▼4091 9987 6869

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<div class="content-highlight"><p>In my last insight on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-paint-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7387:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Paint Holdings (4612 JP)</a> I discussed how the company is dependant on the Chinese auto sector which some may say it's bottoming out and assuming that the Japanese auto industry is just stagnant. </p></div><p>Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Subaru, Suzuki, Mazda, and Mitsubishi have all reported weaker domestic sales in October 2019. This presents an opportunity for shorting auto suppliers whose share price has recently increase despite the somber outlook. </p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10496:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Electric Industries (5802 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisin-seiki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11809:1" rel="noopener">Aisin Seiki (7259 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minth-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9232:1" rel="noopener">Minth Group Ltd (425 HK)</a> are the names for shorting. </p>

In my last insight on Nippon Paint Holdings (4612 JP) I discussed how the company is dependant on the Chinese auto sector which some may say it's bottoming out and assuming that the Japanese auto industry is just stagnant. Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Subaru, Suzuki, Mazda, and Mitsubishi have all reported weaker domestic sales in October 2019. This presents an opportunity for shorting auto suppliers whose share price has recently increase despite the somber outlook. Sumitomo Electric Industries (5802 JP) , Aisin Seiki (7259 JP) and Minth Group Ltd (425 HK) are the names for shorting. 

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>We believe the S&amp;P 500, STOXX Europe 600, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and MSCI China are pulling back to support at their prior breakout levels -- levels we believe will hold<em>. </em>Tech remains our favorite Sector globally. Additional attractive cyclical areas in which to add exposure at current levels include Financials in Europe, autos and auto parts stocks, and casinos and gaming in Macau... <em>see report for a technical appraisal of all major markets and a collection of actionable stocks.</em></p>

We believe the S&amp;P 500, STOXX Europe 600, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and MSCI China are pulling back to support at their prior breakout levels -- levels we believe will hold. Tech remains our favorite Sector globally. Additional attractive cyclical areas in which to add exposure at current levels include Financials in Europe, autos and auto parts stocks, and casinos and gaming in Macau... see report for a technical appraisal of all major markets and a collection of actionable stocks.

Global Equity Strategy: Major Indexes at Logical Support

Japan

Mazda Motor Corporation manufactures and sells automobiles, trucks, auto parts, and its accessories.  The Company operates its business worldwide.

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Mazda Motor (7261 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 27th July - Koei Tecmo, Nitto Denko, MMC, Stanley Electric, Exedy

Koei Tecmo (3635 JP) - Koei Tecmo produced the most-improved Results Score among large-cap companies yesterday. Colleague Mio Kato's April...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 28th May - Nissan, Nikon & Toray

LIMPING HOME - 42 companies reported results on Thursday of which 32 were for the full-year. Of these, 38% made FY2021 forecasts of which only...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 5th February ▲5201 4202 6269 ▼4091 9987 6869

5TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - Wednesday saw 171 Results and 65 Forecast/Revision announcements. The Results Score set another new three-year low losing...

Campbell Gunn

Auto Supplier - New Shorting Opportunity

In my last insight on Nippon Paint Holdings (4612 JP) I discussed how the company is dependant on the Chinese auto sector which some may say it's...

Henry Soediarko

Global Equity Strategy: Major Indexes at Logical Support

We believe the S&P 500, STOXX Europe 600, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and MSCI China are pulling back to support at their prior breakout levels --...

Vermilion Research

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