Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>As long as market dynamics remain largely positive and the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US) indexes are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we believe a constructive outlook is warranted. To reiterate, support levels to watch include $90 on ACWI-US, $53 on ACWX-US, and $52 on EEM-US. Open the attached file to read our complete International Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.</p>

As long as market dynamics remain largely positive and the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US) indexes are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we believe a constructive outlook is warranted. To reiterate, support levels to watch include $90 on ACWI-US, $53 on ACWX-US, and $52 on EEM-US. Open the attached file to read our complete International Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Pullback; Overweight Value

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>After Japan's earthquake automobile makers had a lot to worry about, since they were already faced with critical semiconductor shortages.  Now unusually bad weather has hit much of the US, and has stopped chip production in three important fabs in Austin, Texas.  This Insight explores the winners and losers in this series of events.</p>

After Japan's earthquake automobile makers had a lot to worry about, since they were already faced with critical semiconductor shortages.  Now unusually bad weather has hit much of the US, and has stopped chip production in three important fabs in Austin, Texas.  This Insight explores the winners and losers in this series of events.

Texas Weather Deals Second Blow to Automotive Chip Supply Chain

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS •</strong></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/304/original/2021-01-18_07-21-17.png?1611015356" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183304"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/305/original/2021-01-19_09-18-35.png?1611015525" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183305"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></section><p><strong>POLES APART</strong><strong>&amp; ECHOES OF 2000</strong>- As the Japanese equity market continues to rise the 'spread' between the percentage of listed companies that are OverSold (Relative Price Score &lt;-2.0) and those that are OverBought (RPS &gt; 4.0) remains at extreme levels as does the spread in terms of market weight. 7.2% of listed companies are Oversold; while 2.2% are OverBought, but the latter account for 13.7% of market value; the former just 5.4%. The last time both pairs of metrics were at these levels was the 2000 technology bubble.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/321/original/2021-01-19_10-25-51.png?1611019564" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183321"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/323/original/2021-01-19_10-27-10.png?1611019660" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183323"></figure></section><p><strong>BLOW OUT</strong> - As was the case in 2000, the total number of Sectors either OverBought or Oversold is also at an extreme level having peaked at 13 in December. This number has been exceeded only twice in the last fifty years  - in December 1999 (16) and February 2000 (14).   </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/363/original/2021-01-19_12-45-46.png?1611027961" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183363"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/367/original/2021-01-19_13-09-06.png?1611029374" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183367"></figure></section><div><p>In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below, we provide an update on  Sector, Peer Group and individual company Relative Price Score trends and outliers and make some stock-specific recommendations.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>THE JAPAN ANALYTICS RELATIVE PRICE SCORE</strong> -  The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can offer some trading opportunities. The data for all 3,919 currently-listed Companies is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our 328 Peer Groups and 30 Sectors. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at +4 &amp; -2 for Companies, +3 &amp; -1.5 for Peer Groups and +2 and -1 for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of over 3.2 million observations.</p></div></div></div>

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS •Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsPOLES APART&amp; ECHOES OF 2000- As the Japanese equity market continues to rise the 'spread' between the percentage of listed companies that are OverSold (Relative Price Score &lt;-2.0) and those that are OverBought (RPS &gt; 4.0) remains at extreme levels as does the spread in terms of market weight. 7.2% of listed companies are Oversold; while 2.2% are OverBought, but the latter account for 13.7% of market value; the former just 5.4%. The last time both pairs of metrics were at these levels was the 2000 technology bubble.BLOW OUT - As was the case in 2000, the total number of Sectors either OverBought or Oversold is also at an extreme level having peaked at 13 in December. This number has been exceeded only twice in the last fifty years  - in December 1999 (16) and February 2000 (14).   In the DETAIL section below, we provide an update on  Sector, Peer Group and individual company Relative Price Score trends and outliers and make some stock-specific recommendations.THE JAPAN ANALYTICS RELATIVE PRICE SCORE -  The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can offer some trading opportunities. The data for all 3,919 currently-listed Companies is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our 328 Peer Groups and 30 Sectors. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at +4 &amp; -2 for Companies, +3 &amp; -1.5 for Peer Groups and +2 and -1 for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of over 3.2 million observations.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • January Relative Price Scores -  Actionable Mean Reversion Trades

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We compile our selection of companies across Japan, China and India based on bottom-up triggers in each company.</li>
<li>In Japan its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732:1" rel="noopener">Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)&amp;</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mazda-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20528:1" rel="noopener">Mazda Motor (7261 JP).</a>In Indian auto its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a> &amp;<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland (AL IN)</a>
</li>
<li>In China it is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43993:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group (300 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yadea-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22706:1" rel="noopener">Yadea (1585 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


We compile our selection of companies across Japan, China and India based on bottom-up triggers in each company.
In Japan its ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP),Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)&amp;Mazda Motor (7261 JP).In Indian auto its Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN),Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN) &amp;Ashok Leyland (AL IN)

In China it is Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK), Midea Group (300 HK) and Yadea (1585 HK).


Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas Across Japan, China, India - June 2026

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/490/original/2020-07-29_05-46-56.png?1595972235" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148490"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/491/original/2020-07-29_05-47-39.png?1595972270" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148491"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>OUTLIERS</strong> - This quarter's results are highlighting the wide variances in performance between companies in the same thematic basket - in yesterday's case - the SPE business of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:280:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)</a> and the FA business of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fanuc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1" rel="noopener">Fanuc (6954 JP)</a>.  The latter's forecast, if achieved, would take their incremental operating profit margin to -2,631. While the market has over-reacted to TEL's stability, many, including this writer, have been overly complacent about the pace Fanuc's recovery. The SPE and FAA business cycles are no longer synchronised, and Fanuc's valuations have yet to adjust to that new reality.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/493/original/2020-07-29_06-48-44.png?1595972935" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148493"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/494/original/2020-07-29_06-49-07.png?1595972973" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148494"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>55 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 14 Positive / 1 Neutral / 40 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -3.4</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -11.8% Quarter YoY / -2.4% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.0ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 31%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>23 Annual • 17 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score</strong>: 7 Positive / 0 Neutral / 16 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 4 Positive / 0 Neutral / 13 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -9.8</li>
</ul></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsOUTLIERS - This quarter's results are highlighting the wide variances in performance between companies in the same thematic basket - in yesterday's case - the SPE business of Tokyo Electron (8035 JP) and the FA business of Fanuc (6954 JP).  The latter's forecast, if achieved, would take their incremental operating profit margin to -2,631. While the market has over-reacted to TEL's stability, many, including this writer, have been overly complacent about the pace Fanuc's recovery. The SPE and FAA business cycles are no longer synchronised, and Fanuc's valuations have yet to adjust to that new reality.Source • Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS55 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 14 Positive / 1 Neutral / 40 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -3.4

Average % Change in Revenue: -11.8% Quarter YoY / -2.4% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.0ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 31%
 23 Annual • 17 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 7 Positive / 0 Neutral / 16 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 4 Positive / 0 Neutral / 13 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -9.8


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 28th July - TEL, Fanuc, Canon, Nissan, Shin-Etsu, Omron

Japan

Mazda Motor Corporation manufactures and sells automobiles, trucks, auto parts, and its accessories.  The Company operates its business worldwide.

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Mazda Motor (7261 JP)

Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Pullback; Overweight Value

As long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US) indexes are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we...

Vermilion Research

Texas Weather Deals Second Blow to Automotive Chip Supply Chain

A chip shortage is preventing the automotive industry from returning to full volume. Meanwhile Japan's earthquake and bad weather in Texas are...

Jim Handy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • January Relative Price Scores - Actionable Mean Reversion Trades

As the Japanese equity market continues to rise the 'spread' between the percentage of listed companies that are OverSold and those that are...

Campbell Gunn

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas Across Japan, China, India - June 2026

Blowout retail sales volume growth for Maruti Suzuki (Suzuki Motor) in June. With two days still remaining in the month, retail sales volumes are...

Sreemant Dudhoria

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 28th July - TEL, Fanuc, Canon, Nissan, Shin-Etsu, Omron

OUTLIERS - This quarter's results are highlighting the wide variances in performance between companies in the same thematic basket - in yesterday's...

Campbell Gunn

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