Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 2020 and 2021 we had nine conviction calls, four of which returned over 50% within just over a year.</li>
<li>Three more returned close to 40%, one returned 15% and just one was an abject failure returning -39%. </li>
<li>On average, alpha generation was 24.3% and our 2022 names are off to a good start putting up 14.7% in alpha in just over a month and a half.</li>
</ul>


In 2020 and 2021 we had nine conviction calls, four of which returned over 50% within just over a year.
Three more returned close to 40%, one returned 15% and just one was an abject failure returning -39%. 
On average, alpha generation was 24.3% and our 2022 names are off to a good start putting up 14.7% in alpha in just over a month and a half.


A Belated Look Back at Our 2020 and 2021 Conviction Calls and a Look Ahead to 2022

<ul>
<li>In keeping with its penchant for developing every type of technology imaginable, Toyota has been working on not just fuel cells but also hydrogen engines.</li>
<li>Now it is partnering with Mazda, Subaru, Yamaha and KHI to further expand on this concept and add synthetic carbon neutral fuels to the mix.</li>
<li>These efforts could potentially provide alternative zero carbon transition paths and are worth understanding.</li>
</ul>


In keeping with its penchant for developing every type of technology imaginable, Toyota has been working on not just fuel cells but also hydrogen engines.
Now it is partnering with Mazda, Subaru, Yamaha and KHI to further expand on this concept and add synthetic carbon neutral fuels to the mix.
These efforts could potentially provide alternative zero carbon transition paths and are worth understanding.


Toyota – Revving Up the Hydrogen Engine

Mazda 2Q easily beat consensus at the OP line with OP generation of ¥13.6bn significantly above consensus’ ¥4.1bn. What should be taken notice of though is that it did so while missing on the top line by 10%. This underscores what we have been saying for some time – the sellside is completely clueless about Mazda’s evolving profit structure. In our view even the buyside underestimates just how much it has improved.

Mazda 2Q easily beat consensus at the OP line with OP generation of ¥13.6bn significantly above consensus’ ¥4.1bn. What should be taken notice of though is that it did so while missing on the top line by 10%. This underscores what we have been saying for some time – the sellside is completely clueless about Mazda’s evolving profit structure. In our view even the buyside underestimates just how much it has improved.

Mazda – Stealth Upgrade and On Track to Blowout

Mazda is continuing to implement its take on the Subaru revival playbook that once took Subaru’s stock from a GFC low around ¥250 all the way above ¥5,000 while it briefly led the automotive world in OPM.

Mazda is continuing to implement its take on the Subaru revival playbook that once took Subaru’s stock from a GFC low around ¥250 all the way above ¥5,000 while it briefly led the automotive world in OPM.

Mazda – Moving Upmarket With a RWD Is a Straight Six

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Equity Bottom-Up

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH)

<a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Electric-cars-in-China/CATL-goes-all-in-on-next-gen-sodium-ion-EV-batteries" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CATL continues to invest heavily in material diversification</a>. We warned as far back as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/a-common-concern-is-there-enough-lithium-to-support-the-expected-growth-in-evs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">three and a half years ago</a> that investors were too complacent about lithium supply and as we head towards the middle of this decade with the prospect of supply crunches for battery grade lithium and nickel looking increasingly likely, CATL appears to be hedging its bets.

CATL continues to invest heavily in material diversification. We warned as far back as three and a half years ago that investors were too complacent about lithium supply and as we head towards the middle of this decade with the prospect of supply crunches for battery grade lithium and nickel looking increasingly likely, CATL appears to be hedging its bets.

CATL – Sodium-Ion Battery Development Highlights the Issues with Lithium

Japan

Mazda Motor Corporation manufactures and sells automobiles, trucks, auto parts, and its accessories.  The Company operates its business worldwide.

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Mazda Motor (7261 JP)

A Belated Look Back at Our 2020 and 2021 Conviction Calls and a Look Ahead to 2022

We take a look back at our conviction calls from 2020 and 2021 to assess performance and put the strong start to our 2022 names in context.

Mio Kato

Toyota – Revving Up the Hydrogen Engine

Toyota has been working on not just fuel cells but also hydrogen engines and is now partnering with Mazda, Subaru, Yamaha and KHI to potentially...

Mio Kato

Mazda – Stealth Upgrade and On Track to Blowout

Mazda 2Q easily beat consensus OP by 230% despite missing on the top line by 10%. This underscores Mazda’s evolving profit structure which the...

Mio Kato

Mazda – Moving Upmarket With a RWD Is a Straight Six

Mazda is continuing to implement its take on the Subaru revival playbook that took Subaru’s stock from a GFC low around ¥250 all the way above...

Mio Kato

CATL – Sodium-Ion Battery Development Highlights the Issues with Lithium

As we head towards the middle of this decade the prospect of supply crunches for battery grade lithium and nickel looking increasingly likely and...

Mio Kato

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