'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>Thursday's best and worst pairing is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcdonald-s-holdings-co-japan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:985:1" rel="noopener">Mcdonald's Japan (2702 JP)</a> and ad agency <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hakuhodo-dy-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8736:1" rel="noopener">Hakuhodo (2433 JP)</a>.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/166/original/2020-11-13_06-23-39.png?1605216232" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171166"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/167/original/2020-11-13_06-24-59.png?1605216326" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171167"></figure></section>
</div><div><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>384 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 42% Positive / 8% Neutral / 49% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -0.9 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -6.9% Quarter YoY / -3.2% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -3.7 ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 23%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>142 Annual • 15 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score</strong>: 41% Positive / 13% Neutral / 46% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 47% Positive / 13% Neutral / 40% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -1.9 points</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •
Thursday's best and worst pairing is Mcdonald's Japan (2702 JP) and ad agency Hakuhodo (2433 JP).

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS384 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 42% Positive / 8% Neutral / 49% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -0.9 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -6.9% Quarter YoY / -3.2% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -3.7 ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 23%
142 Annual • 15 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 41% Positive / 13% Neutral / 46% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 47% Positive / 13% Neutral / 40% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -1.9 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​12 McDonald's, Nissan, Hikari, H'hodo

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>•BEST &amp; WORST 11th AUGUST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>The 'best' of Tuesday's large-cap announcements came from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiko-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11127:1" rel="noopener">Taiko Pharmaceutical (4574 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaoko-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1419:1" rel="noopener">,</a> the worst from railway group <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankyu-hanshin-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13058:1" rel="noopener">Hankyu Hanshin (9042 JP)</a>.  More extensive coverage follows in the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/152/180/original/2020-08-13_05-28-00.png?1597264094" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="152180"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/152/181/original/2020-08-13_05-28-38.png?1597264139" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="152181"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div>
<hr>
<div><p><strong>(BACK TO WEAK) PERCENTAGES</strong> -<strong> 63%</strong> of quarterly results, <strong>61%</strong> of annual forecasts/revisions and<strong> 71%</strong> of interim forecasts have negative Scores and 30% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.</p></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>218 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div>
<div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 28% Positive / 9% Neutral / 63% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -3.8 points</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -7.2% Quarter YoY / -0.0% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> +2.5 ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 30%</li>
</ul></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>80 Annual • 35 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div>
<div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 29% Positive / 10% Neutral / 61% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 23% Positive / 6% Neutral / 71% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -7.4 points</li>
</ul></div>
</div>

•BEST &amp; WORST 11th AUGUST •
The 'best' of Tuesday's large-cap announcements came from Taiko Pharmaceutical (4574 JP), the worst from railway group Hankyu Hanshin (9042 JP).  More extensive coverage follows in the DETAIL section below.
Source • Japan Analytics

DAILY STATS

(BACK TO WEAK) PERCENTAGES - 63% of quarterly results, 61% of annual forecasts/revisions and 71% of interim forecasts have negative Scores and 30% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.

218 Quarterly Results


Results Score: 28% Positive / 9% Neutral / 63% Negative

Average Results Score Change: -3.8 points

Average % Change in Revenue: -7.2% Quarter YoY / -0.0% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: +2.5 ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 30%


80 Annual • 35 Interim Forecasts/Revisions


Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 29% Positive / 10% Neutral / 61% Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 23% Positive / 6% Neutral / 71% Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -7.4 points



🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12th August - PPI, Toshiba, McDonald's, ENEOS

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 19th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD31,695m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Skylark, Taiyo Yuden, SoftBank, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, McDonald's, Murata Manufacturing, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 19th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD31,695m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Skylark, Taiyo Yuden, SoftBank, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, McDonald's, Murata Manufacturing, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 19th): Kioxia, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Skylark, Taiyo Yuden

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 12th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD29,582m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Disco, Advantest, Lasertec, Skylark, Murata Manufacturing, Iida, JX Advanced Metals, Hitachi, McDonald's.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 12th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD29,582m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Disco, Advantest, Lasertec, Skylark, Murata Manufacturing, Iida, JX Advanced Metals, Hitachi, McDonald's.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 12th): Kioxia, Disco, Advantest, Lasertec, Skylark, Iida, Hitachi

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/117/756/original/2020-02-14_05-11-41.png?1581624901" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="117756"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/117/760/original/2020-02-14_05-38-10.png?1581626321" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="117760"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>13TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP</strong> - The penultimate day of this results 'season' saw 402 results and 224 forecast or revision announcements.  Our results Score lost another 7 basis points; however, positive initial annual forecasts from several December year-end companies including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dentsu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12434:1" rel="noopener">Dentsu  (4324 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unicharm-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6246:1" rel="noopener">Unicharm (8113 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10482:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Group (2502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coca-cola-bottlers-japan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20051:1" rel="noopener">Coca Cola Bottlers Japan (2579 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suntory-beverage-food-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8218:1" rel="noopener">Suntory Beverage &amp; Food (2587 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcdonald-s-holdings-co-japan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:985:1" rel="noopener">Mcdonald's Japan (2702 JP)</a> added 34 bps to the Forecast/Revision Score. <strong>The 'gap' between the two Scores is the largest since mid-2016, and a large gap is a precondition for setting a cycle low. </strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/117/757/original/2020-02-14_05-14-40.png?1581625349" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="117757"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>SECTOR TIMELINE</strong> - These initial forecasts were the prime driver of the on-day changes in our Sector Timeline, which saw gains for <strong>Restaurants,</strong><strong>Media</strong>, <strong>Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco</strong>, and <strong>Other Consumer Products</strong>. Time will tell if this optimism is well-founded or not.</p>

Source • Japan Analytics13TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - The penultimate day of this results 'season' saw 402 results and 224 forecast or revision announcements.  Our results Score lost another 7 basis points; however, positive initial annual forecasts from several December year-end companies including Dentsu  (4324 JP), Unicharm (8113 JP), Asahi Group (2502 JP), Coca Cola Bottlers Japan (2579 JP), Suntory Beverage &amp; Food (2587 JP), and Mcdonald's Japan (2702 JP) added 34 bps to the Forecast/Revision Score. The 'gap' between the two Scores is the largest since mid-2016, and a large gap is a precondition for setting a cycle low. Source • Japan AnalyticsSECTOR TIMELINE - These initial forecasts were the prime driver of the on-day changes in our Sector Timeline, which saw gains for Restaurants,Media, Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, and Other Consumer Products. Time will tell if this optimism is well-founded or not.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 13th February ▲2587 4612 8113 ▼ 7201 4004 4912

Japan

McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan), Ltd. operates a hamburger fast food restaurant chain throughout Japan.  The Company operates its own stores and franchise stores.

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Mcdonald's Japan (2702 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/12 McDonald's, Nissan, Hikari, H'hodo

• BEST & WORST • Thursday's best and worst pairing is Mcdonald's Japan (2702 JP) and ad agency Hakuhodo (2433 JP)..................

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12th August - PPI, Toshiba, McDonald's, ENEOS

•BEST & WORST 11th AUGUST • The 'best' of Tuesday's large-cap announcements came from Taiko Pharmaceutical (4574 JP), the worst from railway...

Campbell Gunn

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 19th): Kioxia, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Skylark, Taiyo Yuden

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), Advantest (6857 JP), Tokyo Electron (8035 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 12th): Kioxia, Disco, Advantest, Lasertec, Skylark, Iida, Hitachi

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia, Disco, Advantest, Lasertec, Skylark, Murata...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 13th February ▲2587 4612 8113 ▼ 7201 4004 4912

13TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - The penultimate day of this results 'season' saw 402 results and 224 forecast or revision announcements. Our results Score...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​12 McDonald's, Nissan, Hikari, H'hodo

• BEST & WORST • Thursday's best and worst pairing is Mcdonald's Japan (2702 JP) and ad agency Hakuhodo (2433 JP)..................

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12th August - PPI, Toshiba, McDonald's, ENEOS

•BEST & WORST 11th AUGUST • The 'best' of Tuesday's large-cap announcements came from Taiko Pharmaceutical (4574 JP), the worst from railway...

Campbell Gunn

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 19th): Kioxia, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Skylark, Taiyo Yuden

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), Advantest (6857 JP), Tokyo Electron (8035 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 12th): Kioxia, Disco, Advantest, Lasertec, Skylark, Iida, Hitachi

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia, Disco, Advantest, Lasertec, Skylark, Murata...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 13th February ▲2587 4612 8113 ▼ 7201 4004 4912

13TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - The penultimate day of this results 'season' saw 402 results and 224 forecast or revision announcements. Our results Score...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/12 McDonald's, Nissan, Hikari, H'hodo