Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1" rel="noopener">Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)</a>'s holding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boral-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1487:1" rel="noopener">Boral Ltd (BLD AU)</a> continues to increase and that could lead to an index change at the June rebalance, if not earlier.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silver-lake-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6529:1" rel="noopener">Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/red-5-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7940:1" rel="noopener">Red 5 Ltd (RED AU)</a> merger could lead to an index change early June.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cie-de-saint-gobain" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21547:1" rel="noopener">Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)</a>'s acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a> could lead to another index change just ahead of the regular June rebalance.</li>
</ul>



Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)'s holding in Boral Ltd (BLD AU) continues to increase and that could lead to an index change at the June rebalance, if not earlier.
The Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU)/ Red 5 Ltd (RED AU) merger could lead to an index change early June.

Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)'s acquisition of CSR Ltd (CSR AU) could lead to another index change just ahead of the regular June rebalance.


ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Prior to the June Rebalance

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fleetpartners-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:339:1" rel="noopener">FleetPartners Group (FPR AU)</a> has disclosed that SG Fleet, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9936:1" rel="noopener">Orix Corp (8591 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5380:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP)</a> have revised their NBIOs to A$4.55, A$4.65 and A$4.65, respectively. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/element-fleet-management-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24511:1" rel="noopener">Element Fleet Management (EFN CN)</a> has dropped out. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sg-fleet-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13984:1" rel="noopener">Sg Fleet (SGF AU)</a> is also likely to drop out, as its revised offer already factors in substantial synergies.</li>
<li>One of the Japanese strategics will win, as FleetPartners is a relatively small, strategically adjacent bolt-on. A final binding offer around A$4.90-A$5.00 per share is possible.</li>
</ul>



FleetPartners Group (FPR AU) has disclosed that SG Fleet, Orix Corp (8591 JP) and Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP) have revised their NBIOs to A$4.55, A$4.65 and A$4.65, respectively. 

Element Fleet Management (EFN CN) has dropped out. Sg Fleet (SGF AU) is also likely to drop out, as its revised offer already factors in substantial synergies.
One of the Japanese strategics will win, as FleetPartners is a relatively small, strategically adjacent bolt-on. A final binding offer around A$4.90-A$5.00 per share is possible.


FleetPartners (FPR AU): Approaching the Endgame with Materially Higher Revised Offers

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fleetpartners-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:339:1" rel="noopener">FleetPartners Group (FPR AU)</a> has disclosed that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sg-fleet-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13984:1" rel="noopener">Sg Fleet (SGF AU)</a> has increased its offer to A$4.00, and that a third bidder, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9936:1" rel="noopener">Orix Corp (8591 JP)</a>, has offered A$3.80.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/element-fleet-management-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24511:1" rel="noopener">Element Fleet Management (EFN CN)</a>’s request for hard exclusivity was denied. All three proposals were made without due diligence access, which suggests there's still room for further raises.</li>
<li>The AFR reports that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smartgroup-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19954:1" rel="noopener">Smartgroup Corp (SIQ AU)</a> is also contemplating a bid. The competitive auction could push the final winning bid towards the A$4.20 to A$4.50 range.</li>
</ul>



FleetPartners Group (FPR AU) has disclosed that Sg Fleet (SGF AU) has increased its offer to A$4.00, and that a third bidder, Orix Corp (8591 JP), has offered A$3.80.

Element Fleet Management (EFN CN)’s request for hard exclusivity was denied. All three proposals were made without due diligence access, which suggests there's still room for further raises.
The AFR reports that Smartgroup Corp (SIQ AU) is also contemplating a bid. The competitive auction could push the final winning bid towards the A$4.20 to A$4.50 range.


FleetPartners (FPR AU): A Three-Way to Potentially Four-Way Tussle

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>To an Australian individual investor, franking credits simply recognise tax already paid by a company on their earnings. These credits may reduce tax you would otherwise pay on dividend income.</li>
<li>This dividend imputation system prevents double taxation and essentially treats company tax paid as a prepayment of shareholder tax.</li>
<li>The system makes a lot of sense. It's a curious thing so few countries have adopted a similar corporate tax structure.</li>
</ul>


To an Australian individual investor, franking credits simply recognise tax already paid by a company on their earnings. These credits may reduce tax you would otherwise pay on dividend income.
This dividend imputation system prevents double taxation and essentially treats company tax paid as a prepayment of shareholder tax.
The system makes a lot of sense. It's a curious thing so few countries have adopted a similar corporate tax structure.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fleetpartners-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:339:1" rel="noopener">FleetPartners Group (FPR AU)</a> has received a non-binding indicative proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/element-fleet-management-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24511:1" rel="noopener">Element Fleet Management (EFN CN)</a> at A$3.80 per share, representing a 5.6% premium to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sg-fleet-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13984:1" rel="noopener">Sg Fleet (SGF AU)</a>'s offer.</li>
<li>Element has also offered an enhanced offer of A$4.00 if the Board grants it a three-week period of hard exclusivity by 11 August. </li>
<li>Element’s offer remains light. While the Board has rejected its offer, SG Fleet is likely to return with a revised offer supported by significant cost synergies.  </li>
</ul>



FleetPartners Group (FPR AU) has received a non-binding indicative proposal from Element Fleet Management (EFN CN) at A$3.80 per share, representing a 5.6% premium to Sg Fleet (SGF AU)'s offer.
Element has also offered an enhanced offer of A$4.00 if the Board grants it a three-week period of hard exclusivity by 11 August. 
Element’s offer remains light. While the Board has rejected its offer, SG Fleet is likely to return with a revised offer supported by significant cost synergies.  


FleetPartners (FPR AU): A Simmering Bidding War as Element Fleet Lobs an Offer

Australia

McMillan Shakespeare Limited provides salary packaging services.  The Company also offers services like procurement of motor vehicles, insurance, finance and fuel and service maintenance programs.

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Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU)

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Prior to the June Rebalance

Upcoming M&A activity will result in ad hoc inclusions to the ASX200 prior to the June rebal. There could be 2-3 adds in the first few weeks of...

Brian Freitas

FleetPartners (FPR AU): Approaching the Endgame with Materially Higher Revised Offers

One of the Japanese strategics will win, as FleetPartners is a relatively small, strategically adjacent bolt-on. A final binding offer around...

Arun George

FleetPartners (FPR AU): A Three-Way to Potentially Four-Way Tussle

The AFR reports that Element has pulled out of the auction. Element’s decision was not aided by a 14% decline in its share price since it announced...

Arun George

Let's Talk Aussie Franking Credits

Dividend imputation allows tax credits to be passed to shareholders from companies for corporate tax paid. It prevents double taxation and treats...

David Blennerhassett

FleetPartners (FPR AU): A Simmering Bidding War as Element Fleet Lobs an Offer

The AFR reports that SG Fleet has increased its offer to A$4.00, a 11.1% premium to its previous A$3.60 offer and in line with Element’s enhanced...

Arun George

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