Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>On April 22, 2026, Thoma Bravo reached an agreement to hand software firm Medallia to its lenders, wiping out $5.1 billion in equity on a $6.4 billion 2021 take-private.</li>
<li>Lender syndicate (Blackstone at $1.5B, KKR, Apollo Global, and Antares Capital) will take control in a debt-for-equity swap. For Thoma Bravo, it is the largest equity write-off in their history</li>
<li>Being stress-tested right now, is the question as to which of the 1,900+ PE-owned software companies can generate enough cash to service $440B in debt at current rates. Let's see</li>
</ul>


On April 22, 2026, Thoma Bravo reached an agreement to hand software firm Medallia to its lenders, wiping out $5.1 billion in equity on a $6.4 billion 2021 take-private.
Lender syndicate (Blackstone at $1.5B, KKR, Apollo Global, and Antares Capital) will take control in a debt-for-equity swap. For Thoma Bravo, it is the largest equity write-off in their history
Being stress-tested right now, is the question as to which of the 1,900+ PE-owned software companies can generate enough cash to service $440B in debt at current rates. Let's see


Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

Equity Bottom-Up

Qualtrics International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualtrics-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27731:1" rel="noopener">Qualtrics International (XM US)</a>  is the largest XM provider and pioneer in Experience Management. The company was founded in 2002 by Ryan Smith, Jared Smith, and their dad, Scott Smith.</li>
<li>In 2018, SAP acquired Qualtrics for ~$8B in an all-cash deal, one of the largest-ever acquisitions of a SaaS company.</li>
<li>We view <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualtrics-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27731:1" rel="noopener">Qualtrics International (XM US)</a>  as well-positioned to continue to take market share with additional growth drivers such as new products and international expansion. </li>
</ul>



Qualtrics International (XM US)  is the largest XM provider and pioneer in Experience Management. The company was founded in 2002 by Ryan Smith, Jared Smith, and their dad, Scott Smith.
In 2018, SAP acquired Qualtrics for ~$8B in an all-cash deal, one of the largest-ever acquisitions of a SaaS company.
We view Qualtrics International (XM US)  as well-positioned to continue to take market share with additional growth drivers such as new products and international expansion. 


Qualtrics: Leading Pure-Play XM Provider. A Solid Risk-Reward Opportunity

Equity Capital Markets

San Francisco-based <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amplitude-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34148:1" rel="noopener">Amplitude (AMPL US)</a> , best-in-class product analytics and digital optimization technology unicorn, filed for a direct listing and expects their Class A common stock to begin trading on September 28, 2021. The company has registered up to ~35.4M shares to sell in the direct listing with the reference price to be announced. Amplitude plans to list their Class A shares on the Nasdaq Capital Market under the symbol “AMPL”. Direct listing means that there will be no book building process and none of the existing shareholders will be subject to 180-day contractual lock-up agreement. Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, KeyBanc Capital Markets, Baird, UBS and William Blair will serve as financial advisors.

San Francisco-based Amplitude (AMPL US) , best-in-class product analytics and digital optimization technology unicorn, filed for a direct listing and expects their Class A common stock to begin trading on September 28, 2021. The company has registered up to ~35.4M shares to sell in the direct listing with the reference price to be announced. Amplitude plans to list their Class A shares on the Nasdaq Capital Market under the symbol “AMPL”. Direct listing means that there will be no book building process and none of the existing shareholders will be subject to 180-day contractual lock-up agreement. Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, KeyBanc Capital Markets, Baird, UBS and William Blair will serve as financial advisors.

Founder-Led Unicorn And Leader In Product Analytics

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Qualtrics International / Equity Capital Markets

Our base case valuation of Qualtrics is $19.0 billion in terms of implied market cap or $31.6 per share, which represents a 32% upside from the high end of the initial IPO price range of $24 per share. Given the solid upside, we have a positive view of the Qualtrics IPO.

Our base case valuation of Qualtrics is $19.0 billion in terms of implied market cap or $31.6 per share, which represents a 32% upside from the high end of the initial IPO price range of $24 per share. Given the solid upside, we have a positive view of the Qualtrics IPO.  

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

As a reminder, we advocated buying Coupa around the bottom back in early April as it was a good entry point for a permanently expensive Adobe/ServiceNow like compounder (15x back then). We decided to step to the sidelines last quarter as the company didn’t offer much new disclosures around Pay and an oddly conservative guidance for this quarter….which not so shockingly they blew out. This quarters’ guidance for 4Q21 is equally conservative, and if you strip out its Llamasoft acquisition, you get the same sandbagged guidance as last quarter.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

As a reminder, we advocated buying Coupa around the bottom back in early April as it was a good entry point for a permanently expensive Adobe/ServiceNow like compounder (15x back then). We decided to step to the sidelines last quarter as the company didn’t offer much new disclosures around Pay and an oddly conservative guidance for this quarter….which not so shockingly they blew out. This quarters’ guidance for 4Q21 is equally conservative, and if you strip out its Llamasoft acquisition, you get the same sandbagged guidance as last quarter.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Coupa 3Q21 Earnings: The Boy Who Cried Wolf

United States

Medallia, Inc. provides software as a services. The Company offers cloud for marketing management, digital solutions, and research activities. Medallia serves customers worldwide.

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Medallia Inc (MDLA US)

Medallia. Canary In The Coal Mine?

Being stress-tested right now, is the question as to which of the 1,900+ PE-owned software companies can generate enough cash to service $440B in...

William Keating

Qualtrics: Leading Pure-Play XM Provider. A Solid Risk-Reward Opportunity

We are initiating coverage on Qualtrics and believe that fundamentals have always been attractive. The company is well positioned as a leader at scale

Andrei Zakharov

Founder-Led Unicorn And Leader In Product Analytics

Amplitude, the growth engine for digital products, will go public via direct listing and we think its fully SaaS, cloud-native product with...

Andrei Zakharov

Qualtrics Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Qualtrics is $19.0 billion in terms of market cap or $31.6 per share, which represents a 32% upside from the high end of...

Douglas Kim

Coupa 3Q21 Earnings: The Boy Who Cried Wolf

A great quarter vs. a overly conservative guide...and another overly conservative guide. We are long biased but at 40x forward sales for 11%...

Aaron Gabin

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