Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Weak 3Q reported, weak 4Q guidance (Operating Margin) due to wafer price, some TSMC tightness (5-3nm), Opex increase. This should continue into 2026. Consensus too high. That should be negative.</li>
<li>But Management provides a very upbeat ASIC guidance: $1bn revenue in ’26, several bn in ‘27 , OP margin accretive at some point. Short-term pain, long-term gain.</li>
<li>MTK posits itself as the next ASIC disruptor, has several codesigns with Nvidia. But that’s material in ’27. The stock is down -8% YTD. Underperformance continues at least in 1H26.</li>
</ul>


Weak 3Q reported, weak 4Q guidance (Operating Margin) due to wafer price, some TSMC tightness (5-3nm), Opex increase. This should continue into 2026. Consensus too high. That should be negative.
But Management provides a very upbeat ASIC guidance: $1bn revenue in ’26, several bn in ‘27 , OP margin accretive at some point. Short-term pain, long-term gain.
MTK posits itself as the next ASIC disruptor, has several codesigns with Nvidia. But that’s material in ’27. The stock is down -8% YTD. Underperformance continues at least in 1H26.


Mediatek 3Q25: Good News (ASIC Revenue) But Weak Margins Getting Weaker. Stock Not Attractive.

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>4Q25 Guidance: Revenue is NT$142.1 – 150.1 bn (+0 – 6% QoQ, +3 – 9% YoY); Gross margin is 46% ± 1.5ppt; Opex ratio is 31% ± 2ppt.</li>
<li>Cloud ASIC TAM: Raised from US$40bn → ≥ US$50bn by 2028; MediaTek targeting ≥ 10–15% share; Gross Margin: 4Q dip from mix; 2026 to benefit from repricing + high-value allocation</li>
<li>MediaTek continues to execute on a dual-engine AI strategy. Despite near-term margin pressure from mix and FX, the company is building a foundation for sustainable profit growth.</li>
</ul>


4Q25 Guidance: Revenue is NT$142.1 – 150.1 bn (+0 – 6% QoQ, +3 – 9% YoY); Gross margin is 46% ± 1.5ppt; Opex ratio is 31% ± 2ppt.
Cloud ASIC TAM: Raised from US$40bn → ≥ US$50bn by 2028; MediaTek targeting ≥ 10–15% share; Gross Margin: 4Q dip from mix; 2026 to benefit from repricing + high-value allocation
MediaTek continues to execute on a dual-engine AI strategy. Despite near-term margin pressure from mix and FX, the company is building a foundation for sustainable profit growth.


MediaTek (2454.TT): 4Q25 GM Eases on Mix; 2025 Record Revenue; 2026 AI Upswing Begins

<ul>
<li>Smartphone units increase ~3% YoY, that’s slightly better than 1H26 at ~1.5%, but still low growth.   </li>
<li>Premium replacement demand is solid (Samsung, iPhone 17).  Improvements in Emerging Markets (Xiaomi, Transsion, vivo).   </li>
<li>Mediatek reports on 31 Oct, Qualcomm on 5 Nov.  Their Smartphone business isn’t a driver given tepid growth. New ventures revenue timeline is the question.</li>
</ul>


Smartphone units increase ~3% YoY, that’s slightly better than 1H26 at ~1.5%, but still low growth.   
Premium replacement demand is solid (Samsung, iPhone 17).  Improvements in Emerging Markets (Xiaomi, Transsion, vivo).   
Mediatek reports on 31 Oct, Qualcomm on 5 Nov.  Their Smartphone business isn’t a driver given tepid growth. New ventures revenue timeline is the question.


Smartphone 3Q25: A Little Bit Better, Just a Little

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a>’s 4Q25 performance is expected to remain roughly flat QoQ, compared with 3Q25.  </li>
<li>Based on the product launch cycles of major smartphone manufacturers, by the end of 2026, the 2nm process will be adopted in multiple flagship chips</li>
<li>At the China Mobile Global Partner Conference on October 10, MediaTek showcased a range of its latest products</li>
</ul>



Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)’s 4Q25 performance is expected to remain roughly flat QoQ, compared with 3Q25.  
Based on the product launch cycles of major smartphone manufacturers, by the end of 2026, the 2nm process will be adopted in multiple flagship chips
At the China Mobile Global Partner Conference on October 10, MediaTek showcased a range of its latest products


MediaTek (2454.TT): 4Q25 Expected to Be Flat QoQ; D9600 Mass Production Scheduled for Late 2026.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>GB10 Brings Nvidia AI Performance From Data Center to the Desktop</li>
<li>GB10 PCs Will Be "True" AI PCs, Their Capabilities Will Be More Evident</li>
<li>From Niche to Market Driver; Maintain Structural Long for Mediatek, Asustek, Acer</li>
</ul>


GB10 Brings Nvidia AI Performance From Data Center to the Desktop
GB10 PCs Will Be "True" AI PCs, Their Capabilities Will Be More Evident
From Niche to Market Driver; Maintain Structural Long for Mediatek, Asustek, Acer


PC Monitor: Nvidia GB10 PCs Poised to Redefine the AI PC Category

Taiwan

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

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Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)

Mediatek 3Q25: Good News (ASIC Revenue) But Weak Margins Getting Weaker. Stock Not Attractive.

Weak 3Q and 4Q guidance due to wafer price and TSMC tightness, but upbeat ASIC guidance for long-term growth. MTK positioning as next ASIC...

Nicolas Baratte

MediaTek (2454.TT): 4Q25 GM Eases on Mix; 2025 Record Revenue; 2026 AI Upswing Begins

MediaTek's 4Q25 guidance shows revenue growth and margin stability, with a focus on expanding Cloud ASIC TAM and AI strategy for long-term profit...

Patrick Liao

Smartphone 3Q25: A Little Bit Better, Just a Little

Smartphone unit growth remains low at ~3% YoY, with premium replacement demand solid and improvements in Emerging Markets.

Nicolas Baratte

MediaTek (2454.TT): 4Q25 Expected to Be Flat QoQ; D9600 Mass Production Scheduled for Late 2026.

Mediatek Inc's 4Q25 performance expected to stay flat, announces 2nm chip tape-out for late 2026 mass production. MediaTek showcased a range of...

Patrick Liao

PC Monitor: Nvidia GB10 PCs Poised to Redefine the AI PC Category

Nvidia's GB10 brings AI performance to desktop PCs, transforming them into "true" AI machines and driving market growth for Mediatek, Asustek, and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Mediatek 3Q25: Good News (ASIC Revenue) But Weak Margins Getting Weaker. Stock Not Attractive.

​Weak 3Q and 4Q guidance due to wafer price and TSMC tightness, but upbeat ASIC guidance for long-term growth. MTK positioning as next ASIC...

Nicolas Baratte

MediaTek (2454.TT): 4Q25 GM Eases on Mix; 2025 Record Revenue; 2026 AI Upswing Begins

​MediaTek's 4Q25 guidance shows revenue growth and margin stability, with a focus on expanding Cloud ASIC TAM and AI strategy for long-term profit...

Patrick Liao

Smartphone 3Q25: A Little Bit Better, Just a Little

​Smartphone unit growth remains low at ~3% YoY, with premium replacement demand solid and improvements in Emerging Markets.

Nicolas Baratte

MediaTek (2454.TT): 4Q25 Expected to Be Flat QoQ; D9600 Mass Production Scheduled for Late 2026.

​Mediatek Inc's 4Q25 performance expected to stay flat, announces 2nm chip tape-out for late 2026 mass production. MediaTek showcased a range of...

Patrick Liao

PC Monitor: Nvidia GB10 PCs Poised to Redefine the AI PC Category

​Nvidia's GB10 brings AI performance to desktop PCs, transforming them into "true" AI machines and driving market growth for Mediatek, Asustek, and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Weak 3Q and 4Q guidance due to wafer price and TSMC tightness, but upbeat ASIC guidance for long-term growth. MTK positioning as next ASIC...

MediaTek's 4Q25 guidance shows revenue growth and margin stability, with a focus on expanding Cloud ASIC TAM and AI strategy for long-term profit...

Smartphone unit growth remains low at ~3% YoY, with premium replacement demand solid and improvements in Emerging Markets.

Mediatek Inc's 4Q25 performance expected to stay flat, announces 2nm chip tape-out for late 2026 mass production. MediaTek showcased a range of...

Nvidia's GB10 brings AI performance to desktop PCs, transforming them into "true" AI machines and driving market growth for Mediatek, Asustek, and...