Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>We expect a 12.5bp hike in the policy rate in Sep'24, as CPI inflation (2.52%YoY in Jul'24) remains well above the 2% target amid CBC concerns about overheated property markets. </li>
<li>Real GDP grew 5.1%YoY in Q2CY24, following 6.6%YoY growth in Q1 (both faster than mainland China). Exports grew 10%YoY in Jan-Jul'24, and export orders growth is at a 2-year high.</li>
<li>The market's trailing P/E ratio (23.56x) is well above its 20-year mean (19.84x). But we recommend a mild Overweight in Taiwan equities, with a focus on the largest tech stocks. </li>
</ul>


We expect a 12.5bp hike in the policy rate in Sep'24, as CPI inflation (2.52%YoY in Jul'24) remains well above the 2% target amid CBC concerns about overheated property markets. 
Real GDP grew 5.1%YoY in Q2CY24, following 6.6%YoY growth in Q1 (both faster than mainland China). Exports grew 10%YoY in Jan-Jul'24, and export orders growth is at a 2-year high.
The market's trailing P/E ratio (23.56x) is well above its 20-year mean (19.84x). But we recommend a mild Overweight in Taiwan equities, with a focus on the largest tech stocks. 


Taiwan: Rates to Buck Global Loosening as Growth Stays Robust and Inflation Too High

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Consumer Industry Update:Hubei province takes the lead in implementing the home appliance replacement policy (+)</li>
<li>ATAT US/TCOM US:The year-on-year decline in hotel RevPAR narrowed in the second week of August, showing resilient in hotel demand.(+/+)</li>
<li>ATAT US/TCOM US: MCT plans to cut the prices of scenic spot tickets, bodes well to tourism demand. (+/+)</li>
</ul>


Consumer Industry Update:Hubei province takes the lead in implementing the home appliance replacement policy (+)
ATAT US/TCOM US:The year-on-year decline in hotel RevPAR narrowed in the second week of August, showing resilient in hotel demand.(+/+)
ATAT US/TCOM US: MCT plans to cut the prices of scenic spot tickets, bodes well to tourism demand. (+/+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:ATAT US/TCOM US/1810 HK/AAPL US/1519 HK/ZTO US/XPEV US/2454 TT/QCOM US/LKNCY US

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Foxconn Industrial Internet / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Not much has changed since our latest Int'l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled "Buy the Pullback." </li>
<li>We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.</li>
<li>Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.</li>
</ul>


Not much has changed since our latest Int'l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled "Buy the Pullback." 
We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.
Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.


Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Four stock remains, 10 stocks added into portfolio</li>
<li>Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 187% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 78%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology
Portfolio changes: Four stock remains, 10 stocks added into portfolio
Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 187% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 78%


<ul>
<li>Global MSCI indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) are pulling back following recent breakouts to multi-year highs. Europe, Japan also pulling back to uptrend supports.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch-discussed in our May 23, 2024 Int'l Compass-include $110.50 on ACWI-US, $53.50 on ACWX-US, $80 on EFA-US, and $41-42 on EEM-US; buy this pullback. </li>
<li>As long as these supports hold, we anticipate significantly higher prices ahead. Combination of supports holding and healthy market dynamics continues to validate our bullish outlook on global equities.</li>
</ul>


Global MSCI indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) are pulling back following recent breakouts to multi-year highs. Europe, Japan also pulling back to uptrend supports.
Short-Term supports to watch-discussed in our May 23, 2024 Int'l Compass-include $110.50 on ACWI-US, $53.50 on ACWX-US, $80 on EFA-US, and $41-42 on EEM-US; buy this pullback. 
As long as these supports hold, we anticipate significantly higher prices ahead. Combination of supports holding and healthy market dynamics continues to validate our bullish outlook on global equities.


Buy the Pullback; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy; Buys in Tech, Discretionary, Healthcare, Utilities

Taiwan

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

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Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)

Taiwan: Rates to Buck Global Loosening as Growth Stays Robust and Inflation Too High

Taiwan's RGDP growth outpaced the PRC's for the past 3 quarters, and inflation (2.52%YoY in Jul'24) will require a 12.5bp rate hike. Despite rich...

Prasenjit K. Basu

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ATAT US/TCOM US/1810 HK/AAPL US/1519 HK/ZTO US/XPEV US/2454 TT/QCOM US/LKNCY US

Hubei province leads in home appliance replacement policy; hotel RevPAR decline narrows in August; MCT cuts scenic spot ticket prices to boost...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight $FEZ $STOXX; Europe Still Bullish From a Price Perspective; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI $EEM; Supports...

Vermilion Research

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 45

We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology. Portfolio changes: Four stock remains, 10 stocks added.

A. Stotz Investment Research

Buy the Pullback; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy; Buys in Tech, Discretionary, Healthcare, Utilities

Buy the Pullbacks in $EFA $ACWX as they hold above $80 and $53.50 supports; Europe and Japan also buyable pullbacks to uptrend supports; Market...

Vermilion Research

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Taiwan: Rates to Buck Global Loosening as Growth Stays Robust and Inflation Too High

Taiwan's RGDP growth outpaced the PRC's for the past 3 quarters, and inflation (2.52%YoY in Jul'24) will require a 12.5bp rate hike. Despite rich...

Prasenjit K. Basu

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ATAT US/TCOM US/1810 HK/AAPL US/1519 HK/ZTO US/XPEV US/2454 TT/QCOM US/LKNCY US

​Hubei province leads in home appliance replacement policy; hotel RevPAR decline narrows in August; MCT cuts scenic spot ticket prices to boost...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight $FEZ $STOXX; Europe Still Bullish From a Price Perspective; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI $EEM; Supports...

Vermilion Research

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 45

We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology. Portfolio changes: Four stock remains, 10 stocks added.

A. Stotz Investment Research

Buy the Pullback; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy; Buys in Tech, Discretionary, Healthcare, Utilities

Buy the Pullbacks in $EFA $ACWX as they hold above $80 and $53.50 supports; Europe and Japan also buyable pullbacks to uptrend supports; Market...

Vermilion Research

Hubei province leads in home appliance replacement policy; hotel RevPAR decline narrows in August; MCT cuts scenic spot ticket prices to boost...