Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Starlink’s Direct-to-Phone Semiconductor Integration Push Signals a Major Shift Coming for Telecom</li>
<li>Direct-To-Satellite Connectivity Could Become Critical for a Market-Competitive Smartphone SoC Design</li>
<li>Leadership in Satellite Connectivity Will Soon Mean Leadership in Smartphone SoCs</li>
</ul>


Starlink’s Direct-to-Phone Semiconductor Integration Push Signals a Major Shift Coming for Telecom
Direct-To-Satellite Connectivity Could Become Critical for a Market-Competitive Smartphone SoC Design
Leadership in Satellite Connectivity Will Soon Mean Leadership in Smartphone SoCs


MediaTek: Satellite Connectivity the Next Strategic Battleground for Mobile SoCs (Structural Long)

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Mediatek beats in 1Q, good guidance for 2Q, but close to Consensus. Several positives in 2025: flagship smartphone gains, smartphone AI upgrades, strong WiFi and Connectivity growth, progress in Auto.</li>
<li>How large is the “sizable revenue” opportunity of data center custom ASICs from 2026? Management sounds increasingly positive / confident. The stock valuations reflect this.</li>
<li>The stock trades at 18.5x 2025 EPS, 15.5x 2026 EPS, not extravagant but on the high-end. If you have the stock, keep it. If you don’t, TSMC looks more interesting.  </li>
</ul>


Mediatek beats in 1Q, good guidance for 2Q, but close to Consensus. Several positives in 2025: flagship smartphone gains, smartphone AI upgrades, strong WiFi and Connectivity growth, progress in Auto.
How large is the “sizable revenue” opportunity of data center custom ASICs from 2026? Management sounds increasingly positive / confident. The stock valuations reflect this.
The stock trades at 18.5x 2025 EPS, 15.5x 2026 EPS, not extravagant but on the high-end. If you have the stock, keep it. If you don’t, TSMC looks more interesting.  


Mediatek 1Q25 6% Beat, Growth Accelerating in 2Q, Large Revenue Opportunity for Data Center ASIC

<ul>
<li>Q25: inline with a GP one-off.  3Q25: FX impact but still revenue decline QoQ. Add margins compression and 3Q guidance is a large miss: OP -20% below Consensus.</li>
<li>Management continues to provide very bullish “indications” on growth from 2026-27: AI ASIC, collaboration with Nvidia, Automotive. Multiple analysts questions on risk of hyperscalers projects delayed or cancelled.</li>
<li>Mediatek is entering very large markets (AI ASIC, Auto) that will provide new growth beyond the exhausted Mobile market. You want to buy into this after a ~20% correction.</li>
</ul>


Q25: inline with a GP one-off.  3Q25: FX impact but still revenue decline QoQ. Add margins compression and 3Q guidance is a large miss: OP -20% below Consensus.
Management continues to provide very bullish “indications” on growth from 2026-27: AI ASIC, collaboration with Nvidia, Automotive. Multiple analysts questions on risk of hyperscalers projects delayed or cancelled.
Mediatek is entering very large markets (AI ASIC, Auto) that will provide new growth beyond the exhausted Mobile market. You want to buy into this after a ~20% correction.


MTK 2Q25: Inline but Positive One-Off. Weak 3Q with Revenue Decline QoQ and Margins Compression.

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>3Q25 Guidance: Sales: NT$130.1–140B, down 7–13% QoQ / down 1% to up 6% YoY; (In USD: down 1–8% QoQ / up 8–18% YoY).</li>
<li>Strong flagship sales expected in 3Q25, and market demand for Smartphone (SP) expected to remain healthy, while Flagship model ramp-up being expected from 3Q25 to 1Q26.</li>
<li>ASIC business scale may impact chip lifespan, affecting post-2027 sales.</li>
</ul>


3Q25 Guidance: Sales: NT$130.1–140B, down 7–13% QoQ / down 1% to up 6% YoY; (In USD: down 1–8% QoQ / up 8–18% YoY).
Strong flagship sales expected in 3Q25, and market demand for Smartphone (SP) expected to remain healthy, while Flagship model ramp-up being expected from 3Q25 to 1Q26.
ASIC business scale may impact chip lifespan, affecting post-2027 sales.


MediaTek (2454.TT): FX Negatively Impacts the 3Q25 Guidance.

<ul>
<li>For <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)'s</a> 3Q25 outlook, its revenue is expected to decline by approximately 0–6% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting a relative low seasonal factors and order adjustments.  </li>
<li>Regarding Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)'s partnership with Alphabet (GOOGL US), the TPU v7e is expected to begin tape-out in September 2025.  </li>
<li>Based on current project developments using TSMC’s 2nm process, MediaTek is highly likely to co-develop the next-generation MTIA v4 ASIC with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta (META US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


For Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)'s 3Q25 outlook, its revenue is expected to decline by approximately 0–6% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting a relative low seasonal factors and order adjustments.  
Regarding Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)'s partnership with Alphabet (GOOGL US), the TPU v7e is expected to begin tape-out in September 2025.  
Based on current project developments using TSMC’s 2nm process, MediaTek is highly likely to co-develop the next-generation MTIA v4 ASIC with Meta (META US).


MediaTek (2454.TT): 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected to Decline by Approximately 0–6%.

Taiwan

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)

MediaTek: Satellite Connectivity the Next Strategic Battleground for Mobile SoCs (Structural Long)

Push by Starlink to engage with chipmkers for direct to satellite technology in smartphones could revolutionize the telecom industry by making...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Mediatek 1Q25 6% Beat, Growth Accelerating in 2Q, Large Revenue Opportunity for Data Center ASIC

Mediatek's strong performance in 1Q and positive outlook for 2Q, with potential growth in flagship smartphones, AI upgrades, and connectivity, but...

Nicolas Baratte

MTK 2Q25: Inline but Positive One-Off. Weak 3Q with Revenue Decline QoQ and Margins Compression.

Mediatek 3Q guidance missing expectations by 20%. Management remains optimistic about growth from 2026-27, entry into new markets like AI ASIC and...

Nicolas Baratte

MediaTek (2454.TT): FX Negatively Impacts the 3Q25 Guidance.

3Q25 sales guidance shows potential decline, but strong flagship sales and healthy SP demand expected. ASIC business scale may impact post-2027...

Patrick Liao

MediaTek (2454.TT): 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected to Decline by Approximately 0–6%.

Mediatek Inc's 3Q25 revenue expected to decline, partnership with Alphabet for TPU v7e tape-out, potential co-development with Meta for next-gen...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MediaTek: Satellite Connectivity the Next Strategic Battleground for Mobile SoCs (Structural Long)

Push by Starlink to engage with chipmkers for direct to satellite technology in smartphones could revolutionize the telecom industry by making...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Mediatek 1Q25 6% Beat, Growth Accelerating in 2Q, Large Revenue Opportunity for Data Center ASIC

​Mediatek's strong performance in 1Q and positive outlook for 2Q, with potential growth in flagship smartphones, AI upgrades, and connectivity, but...

Nicolas Baratte

MTK 2Q25: Inline but Positive One-Off. Weak 3Q with Revenue Decline QoQ and Margins Compression.

​Mediatek 3Q guidance missing expectations by 20%. Management remains optimistic about growth from 2026-27, entry into new markets like AI ASIC and...

Nicolas Baratte

MediaTek (2454.TT): FX Negatively Impacts the 3Q25 Guidance.

​3Q25 sales guidance shows potential decline, but strong flagship sales and healthy SP demand expected. ASIC business scale may impact post-2027...

Patrick Liao

MediaTek (2454.TT): 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected to Decline by Approximately 0–6%.

​Mediatek Inc's 3Q25 revenue expected to decline, partnership with Alphabet for TPU v7e tape-out, potential co-development with Meta for next-gen...

Patrick Liao

Mediatek's strong performance in 1Q and positive outlook for 2Q, with potential growth in flagship smartphones, AI upgrades, and connectivity, but...

Mediatek 3Q guidance missing expectations by 20%. Management remains optimistic about growth from 2026-27, entry into new markets like AI ASIC and...

3Q25 sales guidance shows potential decline, but strong flagship sales and healthy SP demand expected. ASIC business scale may impact post-2027...

Mediatek Inc's 3Q25 revenue expected to decline, partnership with Alphabet for TPU v7e tape-out, potential co-development with Meta for next-gen...