Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>US Eyes New AI Chip Restrictions on Malaysia and Thailand</li>
<li>Chip and AI Boom Driving Taiwan's Offshore Wind Expansion -- Local Stocks to Watch</li>
<li>China Set to Become World’s Largest Semiconductor Foundry Hub by 2030 -- But One Needs to Consider Leading Edge Capacity vs. Mature Capacity</li>
</ul>


US Eyes New AI Chip Restrictions on Malaysia and Thailand
Chip and AI Boom Driving Taiwan's Offshore Wind Expansion -- Local Stocks to Watch
China Set to Become World’s Largest Semiconductor Foundry Hub by 2030 -- But One Needs to Consider Leading Edge Capacity vs. Mature Capacity


Taiwan Tech Weekly: US Targets Malaysia & Thailand; Wind Power Fuels Taiwan's AI Infrastructure Push

<ul>
<li>Intel Down But Not Out -- Reportedly Wins Major Microsoft Foundry Contract; Significant Interest from Nvidia and Google</li>
<li>AMD CEO Lisa Su Presents to U.S. Senate -- Taiwan is America’s Key Ally in the AI Chip Race</li>
<li>Mediatek Approaching Potential Share Catalyst at Computex Taiwan; Nvidia PC PC Announcement Expected</li>
</ul>


Intel Down But Not Out -- Reportedly Wins Major Microsoft Foundry Contract; Significant Interest from Nvidia and Google
AMD CEO Lisa Su Presents to U.S. Senate -- Taiwan is America’s Key Ally in the AI Chip Race
Mediatek Approaching Potential Share Catalyst at Computex Taiwan; Nvidia PC PC Announcement Expected


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Foundry Gains Big Tech Interest; AMD CEO Champions Taiwan in D.C

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>From mid-Feb-25 to yesterday, MTK's stock has declined -18% versus TSM -25%. Similar enough.  But Mediatek is trading at average forward PEx 16.6x whereas TSMC is cheap at 12.8x. </li>
<li>Consensus forecasts more growth for TSM over 2025-27, a strong 2025 with EPS up 33%. Less growth for MTK, a slow 2025 with EPS up 9%. Why MTK more expensive? </li>
<li>Higher growth but lower PEx, how much risk in TSM earnings? Low valuations could reflect a misunderstanding on the impact of US import tariffs. </li>
</ul>


From mid-Feb-25 to yesterday, MTK's stock has declined -18% versus TSM -25%. Similar enough.  But Mediatek is trading at average forward PEx 16.6x whereas TSMC is cheap at 12.8x. 
Consensus forecasts more growth for TSM over 2025-27, a strong 2025 with EPS up 33%. Less growth for MTK, a slow 2025 with EPS up 9%. Why MTK more expensive? 
Higher growth but lower PEx, how much risk in TSM earnings? Low valuations could reflect a misunderstanding on the impact of US import tariffs. 


Is the Valuations Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC

<ul>
<li>News or rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting down CoWoS orders at TSMC have been flying around since last week (Taiwan media, some sell-side analysts).</li>
<li>TSMC guided for AI revenues doubling in 2025. Nvidia’s CEO clarified that CoWoS-S orders are declining because CoWoS-L is increasing. This transition has been known for over 1 year.</li>
<li>TSMC is converting CoWoS-S to L and adding capacity in Tainan Science Park phase 2 &amp; 3. In 2024, CoWoS-L was ~10% of CoWoS output, increasing to 50-60% in 2025.</li>
</ul>


News or rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting down CoWoS orders at TSMC have been flying around since last week (Taiwan media, some sell-side analysts).
TSMC guided for AI revenues doubling in 2025. Nvidia’s CEO clarified that CoWoS-S orders are declining because CoWoS-L is increasing. This transition has been known for over 1 year.
TSMC is converting CoWoS-S to L and adding capacity in Tainan Science Park phase 2 &amp; 3. In 2024, CoWoS-L was ~10% of CoWoS output, increasing to 50-60% in 2025.


TSMC Order Cut Rumors: Keep Calm and Ignore the Rumors.

<ul>
<li>Leaked Mediatek Chip Specs? -- Talk of a "Qualcomm Killer"</li>
<li>Hon Hai in the New York Times -- Why Foxconn is Investing in Texas &amp; Thailand</li>
<li>TSMC's Arizona 4nm Production On Track to Start 2H25E -- Still Expected to Be 30% Higher Cost vs. Taiwan and That's Okay</li>
</ul>


Leaked Mediatek Chip Specs? -- Talk of a "Qualcomm Killer"
Hon Hai in the New York Times -- Why Foxconn is Investing in Texas &amp; Thailand
TSMC's Arizona 4nm Production On Track to Start 2H25E -- Still Expected to Be 30% Higher Cost vs. Taiwan and That's Okay


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Leaked Mediatek Specs Spur Talk Of "Qualcomm Killer"'; TSMC on Track in Arizona

Taiwan

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

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Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: US Targets Malaysia & Thailand; Wind Power Fuels Taiwan's AI Infrastructure Push

US considering new AI chip restrictions on Malaysia and Thailand, Taiwan's offshore wind expansion driven by chip and AI boom, Intel should invest...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Foundry Gains Big Tech Interest; AMD CEO Champions Taiwan in D.C

Intel secures Microsoft contract, AMD emphasizes Taiwan alliance in AI chip race, Mediatek poised for growth at Computex Taiwan.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Is the Valuations Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC

MTK's stock has declined less than TSM's, but TSMC is cheaper with higher growth forecasts. Low valuations for TSM could be due to...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC Order Cut Rumors: Keep Calm and Ignore the Rumors.

Rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting CoWoS orders at TSMC are debunked as TSMC transitions to CoWoS-L, expects a doubling of AI revenues in...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Leaked Mediatek Specs Spur Talk Of "Qualcomm Killer"'; TSMC on Track in Arizona

Leaked Mediatek chip specs hint at potential rival to Qualcomm's flagship chips; Foxconn investing in Texas & Thailand; TSMC's Arizona production...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: US Targets Malaysia & Thailand; Wind Power Fuels Taiwan's AI Infrastructure Push

​US considering new AI chip restrictions on Malaysia and Thailand, Taiwan's offshore wind expansion driven by chip and AI boom, Intel should invest...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Foundry Gains Big Tech Interest; AMD CEO Champions Taiwan in D.C

​Intel secures Microsoft contract, AMD emphasizes Taiwan alliance in AI chip race, Mediatek poised for growth at Computex Taiwan.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Is the Valuations Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC

​MTK's stock has declined less than TSM's, but TSMC is cheaper with higher growth forecasts. Low valuations for TSM could be due to...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC Order Cut Rumors: Keep Calm and Ignore the Rumors.

​Rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting CoWoS orders at TSMC are debunked as TSMC transitions to CoWoS-L, expects a doubling of AI revenues in...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Leaked Mediatek Specs Spur Talk Of "Qualcomm Killer"'; TSMC on Track in Arizona

​Leaked Mediatek chip specs hint at potential rival to Qualcomm's flagship chips; Foxconn investing in Texas & Thailand; TSMC's Arizona production...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

US considering new AI chip restrictions on Malaysia and Thailand, Taiwan's offshore wind expansion driven by chip and AI boom, Intel should invest...

Intel secures Microsoft contract, AMD emphasizes Taiwan alliance in AI chip race, Mediatek poised for growth at Computex Taiwan.

MTK's stock has declined less than TSM's, but TSMC is cheaper with higher growth forecasts. Low valuations for TSM could be due to...

Rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting CoWoS orders at TSMC are debunked as TSMC transitions to CoWoS-L, expects a doubling of AI revenues in...

Leaked Mediatek chip specs hint at potential rival to Qualcomm's flagship chips; Foxconn investing in Texas & Thailand; TSMC's Arizona production...