Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alfresa-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10610:1" rel="noopener">Alfresa Holdings (2784 JP)</a> reported better-than-expected H1FY23 results, with sales growth of 3% to ¥1,332 billion, 2% ahead of guidance of ¥1,304 billion, mainly driven by pharmaceutical wholesaling business.</li>
<li>With a revenue growth of 4.3% y/y, pharmaceutical wholesaling business outpaced the broad market growth of 2.7% and improved its market share to 23.3% at the end of H1FY23.</li>
<li>The company has announced an interim dividend of ¥28 per share. Despite reporting encouraging H1FY23 performance, Alfresa has reiterated its FY23 guidance, implying accelerated growth in H2FY23.</li>
</ul>



Alfresa Holdings (2784 JP) reported better-than-expected H1FY23 results, with sales growth of 3% to ¥1,332 billion, 2% ahead of guidance of ¥1,304 billion, mainly driven by pharmaceutical wholesaling business.
With a revenue growth of 4.3% y/y, pharmaceutical wholesaling business outpaced the broad market growth of 2.7% and improved its market share to 23.3% at the end of H1FY23.
The company has announced an interim dividend of ¥28 per share. Despite reporting encouraging H1FY23 performance, Alfresa has reiterated its FY23 guidance, implying accelerated growth in H2FY23.


Alfresa Holdings (2784 JP): H1FY23 Review- Better-Than-Expected Performance; Outlook Is Positive

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuken-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14996:1" rel="noopener">Suzuken Co Ltd (9987 JP)</a> last Friday announced earnings which beat expectations and raised forecasts well above consensus. But Implied H2 did not change, suggesting full-year is lowballed.</li>
<li>The company announced a buyback over 5 months, but today (Tuesday) announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback for the full size (6% or so) that morning. </li>
<li>It looks like insider selling, which in addition to being accretive would be bullish on a governance basis.</li>
</ul>



Suzuken Co Ltd (9987 JP) last Friday announced earnings which beat expectations and raised forecasts well above consensus. But Implied H2 did not change, suggesting full-year is lowballed.
The company announced a buyback over 5 months, but today (Tuesday) announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback for the full size (6% or so) that morning. 
It looks like insider selling, which in addition to being accretive would be bullish on a governance basis.


Suzuken Buyback (9987 JP) - The Best News In Years

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medipal-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18394:1" rel="noopener">Medipal Holdings (7459 JP)</a> reported strong revenue growth in pharmaceutical wholesale business, while its cosmetics distribution business reported lower-than-expected revenue in FY22. FY23 operating profit target was set below consensus.</li>
<li>Lower demand for hygiene-related products in domestic market and lesser foreign tourists arrival in Japan are expected to negatively impact Medipal’s cosmetics distribution business.</li>
<li>NHI drug price revisions are the biggest challenge in pharmaceutical wholesale business. Medipal’s largest revenue contributing drug, Takecab saw a 15.8% price reduction effective April 1.</li>
</ul>



Medipal Holdings (7459 JP) reported strong revenue growth in pharmaceutical wholesale business, while its cosmetics distribution business reported lower-than-expected revenue in FY22. FY23 operating profit target was set below consensus.
Lower demand for hygiene-related products in domestic market and lesser foreign tourists arrival in Japan are expected to negatively impact Medipal’s cosmetics distribution business.
NHI drug price revisions are the biggest challenge in pharmaceutical wholesale business. Medipal’s largest revenue contributing drug, Takecab saw a 15.8% price reduction effective April 1.


Medipal Holdings (7459 JP): Disappointing FY23 Guidance and Challenging Business Environment

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

The merger of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/matsumotokiyoshi-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2259:1" rel="noopener">Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd. (3088 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cocokara-fine-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15447:1" rel="noopener">Cocokara Fine (3098 JP)</a> is just one symptom of the growing concentration of market share in the drugstore sector.But the sector's leaders are no longer just battling for dominance in drugstore retailing; increasingly drugstores are evolving far behind this niche sector.Drugstore retailing is growing faster than any sector other than e-commerce because drugstores are positioned to meet customer needs for well-being, health and, nowadays, a broad range of daily necessities including food, and so becoming ever more integrated into consumers’ daily shopping experience.Their eclectic ranges also mean they perform well in the middle of natural disasters and crises of various forms and many chains have seen good results thanks to earthquakes, extreme weather and especially thanks to Covid, but this doesn’t fully explain the sector’s success.Crises may have helped, but Japan’s top drugstores are today some of the country’s best retailers in their own right.The following is a complete, in-depth review of the drugstore sector, including rankings, KPIs, and future trends on the sector and the potential winners.Jun Tsuruha, the current <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> CEO, was widely quoted last year as saying the sector would soon be dominated by just “four or five” major firms. This is far from fantasy, with Tsuruha, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a>, Matsukiyo-Cocokara, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmos-pharmaceutical-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3797:1" rel="noopener">Cosmos Pharmaceutical (3349 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sugi-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9255:1" rel="noopener">Sugi Holdings (7649 JP)</a> the most likely contenders.

The merger of Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd. (3088 JP) and Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) is just one symptom of the growing concentration of market share in the drugstore sector.But the sector's leaders are no longer just battling for dominance in drugstore retailing; increasingly drugstores are evolving far behind this niche sector.Drugstore retailing is growing faster than any sector other than e-commerce because drugstores are positioned to meet customer needs for well-being, health and, nowadays, a broad range of daily necessities including food, and so becoming ever more integrated into consumers’ daily shopping experience.Their eclectic ranges also mean they perform well in the middle of natural disasters and crises of various forms and many chains have seen good results thanks to earthquakes, extreme weather and especially thanks to Covid, but this doesn’t fully explain the sector’s success.Crises may have helped, but Japan’s top drugstores are today some of the country’s best retailers in their own right.The following is a complete, in-depth review of the drugstore sector, including rankings, KPIs, and future trends on the sector and the potential winners.Jun Tsuruha, the current Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) CEO, was widely quoted last year as saying the sector would soon be dominated by just “four or five” major firms. This is far from fantasy, with Tsuruha, Welcia Holdings (3141 JP), Matsukiyo-Cocokara, Cosmos Pharmaceutical (3349 JP) and Sugi Holdings (7649 JP) the most likely contenders.

Japan Drugstores: Growing Leadership in Food, Household, Cosmetics – and the Odd Medicine Too

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medipal-holdings-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18394:1">Medipal Holdings (7459 JP)</a> shows a clear up trend with upside momentum concerns brewing given non confirmation of recent highs by trending models.Our more tactical view is bullish off of noted trendline support at 2,300-50 for a try on a minor new high. Buying weakness is the game plan for a new high with a stop below trendline support. A new high shows projection to 2,890 and risk to a marginally higher level.It is this minor new high that we envision a potential intermediate cycle peak that would lead to a break below the current trendline support as bear divergence matures. It is this primary trendline support that will inflect the macro cycle and seek out secondary support if broken.

Medipal Holdings (7459 JP) shows a clear up trend with upside momentum concerns brewing given non confirmation of recent highs by trending models.Our more tactical view is bullish off of noted trendline support at 2,300-50 for a try on a minor new high. Buying weakness is the game plan for a new high with a stop below trendline support. A new high shows projection to 2,890 and risk to a marginally higher level.It is this minor new high that we envision a potential intermediate cycle peak that would lead to a break below the current trendline support as bear divergence matures. It is this primary trendline support that will inflect the macro cycle and seek out secondary support if broken.

Medipal Holdings Upside to New High with Trend Non Confirmations Maturing

Japan

MEDIPAL HOLDINGS CORPORATION manufactures and sells medical tools and equipment, nursing equipment, and wholesales pharmaceuticals.

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Medipal Holdings (7459 JP)

Alfresa Holdings (2784 JP): H1FY23 Review- Better-Than-Expected Performance; Outlook Is Positive

Alfresa reported revenue growth of 3% in H1FY23, driven by pharmaceutical wholesaling business, which is on an accelerated growth path due to...

Tina Banerjee

Suzuken Buyback (9987 JP) - The Best News In Years

Suzuken' earnings were good. Forecasts only reflect the past. H2 implieds were unch'd. Buyback announced = ToSTNeT-3 tomorrow should finish....

Travis Lundy