Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

There is risk that banks will have to cancel, suspend or cut dividends. During a period of low-cost or free loans from governments and regulators to banks, it is difficult to envisage that regulators would sanction these very same banks to provide most of their earnings to shareholders. There are varying degrees of risk depending on payout ratios. Several banks around the world have reported dividend payout ratios at 70% or higher. There is more to lose at these banks, than others and this could be another source of concern, other than credit and liquidity risk. Australia’s banks seem to have all of these risks, in spades.

There is risk that banks will have to cancel, suspend or cut dividends. During a period of low-cost or free loans from governments and regulators to banks, it is difficult to envisage that regulators would sanction these very same banks to provide most of their earnings to shareholders. There are varying degrees of risk depending on payout ratios. Several banks around the world have reported dividend payout ratios at 70% or higher. There is more to lose at these banks, than others and this could be another source of concern, other than credit and liquidity risk. Australia’s banks seem to have all of these risks, in spades.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements throughout most of Europe and the UK, along with strength in China over the past 2-3 months. We believe these positive developments are supportive of higher equity prices moving forward. We provide a technical appraisal of all major markets.The STOXX 600 Banks and Insurance Sectors are exhibiting bullish price inflections and RS indicates these areas may be emerging as leadership. In today’s report we highlight actionable stocks throughout the int’l Financial Sector.

The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements throughout most of Europe and the UK, along with strength in China over the past 2-3 months. We believe these positive developments are supportive of higher equity prices moving forward. We provide a technical appraisal of all major markets.The STOXX 600 Banks and Insurance Sectors are exhibiting bullish price inflections and RS indicates these areas may be emerging as leadership. In today’s report we highlight actionable stocks throughout the int’l Financial Sector.

MSCI ACWI Ex-U.S. Breaking Topside Its Downtrend: Europe & The UK Look Attractive

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

LR Research

Note:  The weekend edition of '21 things' tends to be lighter with less analysis.<div class="content-highlight">1.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6290" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6290:1">Li &amp; Fung Ltd (494 HK)</a> parent the Fung Group is revamping its <a href="https://www.fungacademy.com/stories/innovation-experimentation/explorium-%E2%80%93-playground-future-retail" target="_blank">Explorium project</a> in Shanghai - a space that allows tech startups that focus on supply chain management and fashion to experiment.  Despite a recent recovery, the Li &amp; Fung share price remains well below its highs.  The revamp has been labeled as a soft launch, but a new push in this direction could be beneficial to Fung group companies.  Li &amp; Fung…</div>

Note:  The weekend edition of '21 things' tends to be lighter with less analysis.1.  Li &amp; Fung Ltd (494 HK) parent the Fung Group is revamping its Explorium project in Shanghai - a space that allows tech startups that focus on supply chain management and fashion to experiment.  Despite a recent recovery, the Li &amp; Fung share price remains well below its highs.  The revamp has been labeled as a soft launch, but a new push in this direction could be beneficial to Fung group companies.  Li &amp; Fung…

Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

King Cnute (995-1035) is largely recognized as one of the most effective of kings in the Anglo-Saxon period. His name is most often associated with his commanding the sea to retreat and ending up with wet feet. The tide, it turned out, would obey none, not even a successful King and empire builder. The story is often represented as one of human folly and hubris. The power- mad ruler who thought he could command nature. In fact the reverse is true. Cnut was specifically setting out to teach his…

King Cnute (995-1035) is largely recognized as one of the most effective of kings in the Anglo-Saxon period. His name is most often associated with his commanding the sea to retreat and ending up with wet feet. The tide, it turned out, would obey none, not even a successful King and empire builder. The story is often represented as one of human folly and hubris. The power- mad ruler who thought he could command nature. In fact the reverse is true. Cnut was specifically setting out to teach his…

Inflation data released in Turkey today is not encouraging. PPI rose nearly 3% MoM and now stands at 9.94% YoY. Oil price inflation will likely peak in January / February but will likely not moderate much until May/June.  CPI rose from 7% YoY to 8.53% YoY in December but perhaps most alarmingly core CPI rose from 6.99% to 7.48%. In consequence bond yields have started to widen again in Turkey and given the heavy reliance on foreign bond purchases to fund the stock of debt, the currency has come…

Inflation data released in Turkey today is not encouraging. PPI rose nearly 3% MoM and now stands at 9.94% YoY. Oil price inflation will likely peak in January / February but will likely not moderate much until May/June.  CPI rose from 7% YoY to 8.53% YoY in December but perhaps most alarmingly core CPI rose from 6.99% to 7.48%. In consequence bond yields have started to widen again in Turkey and given the heavy reliance on foreign bond purchases to fund the stock of debt, the currency has come…

Taiwan

Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company accepts deposits, issues financial debentures, provides medium and long term loans to enterprises, as well as provides brokerage, dealer and insurance services.

Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd (2886 TT)

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Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd (2886 TT)

Global Banks – Dividend Risk

There is risk that banks will have to cancel, suspend or cut dividends. During a period of low-cost or free loans from governments and regulators...

Daniel Tabbush

MSCI ACWI Ex-U.S. Breaking Topside Its Downtrend: Europe & The UK Look Attractive

The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements...

Vermilion Research

21 Things Worth Knowing Today (Issue 3)

Note: The weekend edition of '21 things' tends to be lighter with less analysis.1. Li & Fung Ltd (494 HK) parent the Fung Group is revamping...

Mark Artherton

Money Matters: King Cnut and the PBOC.

King Cnute (995-1035) is largely recognized as one of the most effective of kings in the Anglo-Saxon period. His name is most often associated with...

Stewart Paterson

Money Matters: Turkey on the Brink?

Inflation data released in Turkey today is not encouraging. PPI rose nearly 3% MoM and now stands at 9.94% YoY. Oil price inflation will likely...

Stewart Paterson

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