HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

Shenzhen Kinwong Electronic / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-kinwong-electronic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:58633:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Kinwong Electronic (3228 HK)</a>'s IPO is seeking HK$4.96bn, though priced at a steep 45.9% discount to the A-share, the absolute PER is not cheap.</li>
<li>The key strengths lie in its comprehensive product portfolio, strong market reputation, and strategic partnerships with global customers. </li>
<li>We value it at 32.7x PER for FY26, in line with the global peer average, meaning a price of HK$80.15. But this is not without risks, given potential earnings disappointment.</li>
</ul>



Shenzhen Kinwong Electronic (3228 HK)'s IPO is seeking HK$4.96bn, though priced at a steep 45.9% discount to the A-share, the absolute PER is not cheap.
The key strengths lie in its comprehensive product portfolio, strong market reputation, and strategic partnerships with global customers. 
We value it at 32.7x PER for FY26, in line with the global peer average, meaning a price of HK$80.15. But this is not without risks, given potential earnings disappointment.


Shenzhen Kinwong (3228 HK) IPO: Marginally Attractive

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
Our Q3-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market-cap-weighted average price return of 2% and a simple average decline of 0.2%.</li>
<li>
Out of the 34 stocks that appeared in our Q3-2021 screen, 15 stocks saw an average share price decline of 11.5%, whilst 19 stocks appreciated on average by 14%. The two biggest declining stock  were down 25% and 19% respectively.</li>
<li>Our Q4 2021 screen, with 38 names (up from 34 seen in Q3 and Q2 2021) delivers an interesting composition this quarter, </li>
<li>
As in the previous few quarters, we anticipate the possibility of a risk of deteriorating credit metrics during the next few quarters: Q4 2021’s Altman Z score rests at 1.23, which is just up on Q3 2021’s level of 1.19.</li>
</ul>



Our Q3-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market-cap-weighted average price return of 2% and a simple average decline of 0.2%.

Out of the 34 stocks that appeared in our Q3-2021 screen, 15 stocks saw an average share price decline of 11.5%, whilst 19 stocks appreciated on average by 14%. The two biggest declining stock  were down 25% and 19% respectively.
Our Q4 2021 screen, with 38 names (up from 34 seen in Q3 and Q2 2021) delivers an interesting composition this quarter, 

As in the previous few quarters, we anticipate the possibility of a risk of deteriorating credit metrics during the next few quarters: Q4 2021’s Altman Z score rests at 1.23, which is just up on Q3 2021’s level of 1.19.


Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

<h2>Eight new names, SoftBank remains for the 3rd quarter running</h2>
<ul>
<li>
OurQ2-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market cap-weighted average price decline of 2%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted a decline of 1.7% over the same period. The stock quality of our Q2 2021 decreased 2.4 points or 3.8% over the period. Within the mix of 34 stocks in our Q2 2021 (May) list 19 posted negative performance, with an average decline of 14.1%.</li>
<li>
At a static number of 34 stocks our Q3 2021 screen, delivers an interesting composition this quarter, with eight (8) new names and strong representation from Hong Kong in terms of geography and Industrials and Basic Materials from a sector perspective. This suggests that the “reopening of the economy” trade may have run its course for now.</li>
<li>Our Q3 2021 screen shows a further reduction in average stock rank (a reading on relative quality amongst the broad market peers with 100 being the highest) to 61 from 65.18 in Q2 2021.</li>
<li>
Stock specific focus: We discuss why SoftBank stands out as a stock that presents with additional risk. We also discuss the fact that whilst there is a high representation of Industrials in the list, within this list, there are several names that may warrant not being too bearish towards.</li>
</ul>

Eight new names, SoftBank remains for the 3rd quarter running


OurQ2-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market cap-weighted average price decline of 2%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted a decline of 1.7% over the same period. The stock quality of our Q2 2021 decreased 2.4 points or 3.8% over the period. Within the mix of 34 stocks in our Q2 2021 (May) list 19 posted negative performance, with an average decline of 14.1%.

At a static number of 34 stocks our Q3 2021 screen, delivers an interesting composition this quarter, with eight (8) new names and strong representation from Hong Kong in terms of geography and Industrials and Basic Materials from a sector perspective. This suggests that the “reopening of the economy” trade may have run its course for now.
Our Q3 2021 screen shows a further reduction in average stock rank (a reading on relative quality amongst the broad market peers with 100 being the highest) to 61 from 65.18 in Q2 2021.

Stock specific focus: We discuss why SoftBank stands out as a stock that presents with additional risk. We also discuss the fact that whilst there is a high representation of Industrials in the list, within this list, there are several names that may warrant not being too bearish towards.


Screening the Silk Road: Q3 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/848/original/2020-04-21_07-03-22.png?1587420235" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128848"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/851/original/2020-04-21_07-07-10.png?1587420481" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128851"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
</div>LATE ORDERS - All three of yesterday's results announcements were from Restaurants with February year-ends. These 'tail-enders' all swung into losses for the fourth quarter and did not make forecasts for the current year, which is becoming more the norm. The Sector as a whole still has a positive Results &amp; Revision Score supported by the Chinese and Take Out &amp; Delivery Peer Groups.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/853/original/2020-04-21_07-18-49.png?1587421152" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128853"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>In the DETAIL below, we shall briefly review Monday's ten revisions announcements.  The positive/neutral/negative balance was 3:1:6. Coating Machinery specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hirano-tecseed-co-kinzoku" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11356:1" rel="noopener">Hirano Tecseed (6245 JP)</a> raised its dividend and now yields 4.2% while sporting a negative Enterprise Value (EV) of ¥-2.2b.


Source • Japan Analytics
LATE ORDERS - All three of yesterday's results announcements were from Restaurants with February year-ends. These 'tail-enders' all swung into losses for the fourth quarter and did not make forecasts for the current year, which is becoming more the norm. The Sector as a whole still has a positive Results &amp; Revision Score supported by the Chinese and Take Out &amp; Delivery Peer Groups.Source • Japan AnalyticsIn the DETAIL below, we shall briefly review Monday's ten revisions announcements.  The positive/neutral/negative balance was 3:1:6. Coating Machinery specialist Hirano Tecseed (6245 JP) raised its dividend and now yields 4.2% while sporting a negative Enterprise Value (EV) of ¥-2.2b. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 20th April - Take Aways and LI(Not)FULL

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our outlook remains neutral for global ex-U.S. markets while horizontal consolidation continues on the MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index.  In today’s report we take a bottoms-up view on developed ex-U.S. equities, highlighting stocks that present attractive buy opportunities within the Communications, Health Care, Manufacturing, Materials, Technology, Transportation, and Utilities Sectors

Our outlook remains neutral for global ex-U.S. markets while horizontal consolidation continues on the MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index.  In today’s report we take a bottoms-up view on developed ex-U.S. equities, highlighting stocks that present attractive buy opportunities within the Communications, Health Care, Manufacturing, Materials, Technology, Transportation, and Utilities Sectors

Bottoms-Up View on Developed Markets: Actionable Stocks, Part 2

Japan

Meiko Electronics Co., Ltd. designs, manufactures, and markets printed circuit boards.  The Company also produces populated boards, board testing devices, and multi-video processors.

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Meiko Electronics (6787 JP)

Shenzhen Kinwong (3228 HK) IPO: Marginally Attractive

Shenzhen Kinwong's IPO is seeking HK$4.96bn, though priced at a steep 45.9% discount to the A-share, the absolute PER is not cheap. We are also...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

As we move through into Q1 2022, we expect to see volatility around highly priced & leveraged names. This screen is a key starting point towards...

David Lepper

Screening the Silk Road: Q3 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

Screening the Silk Road Q3 2021: Asia Pac High-risk names to avoid screening is out now. Eight new names, despite being down 23%, SoftBank remains...

David Lepper

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 20th April - Take Aways and LI(Not)FULL

LATE ORDERS - All three of yesterday's results announcements were from Restaurants with February year-ends. These 'tail-enders' all swung into...

Campbell Gunn

Bottoms-Up View on Developed Markets: Actionable Stocks, Part 2

Our outlook remains neutral for global ex-U.S. markets while horizontal consolidation continues on the MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index. In today’s report...

Vermilion Research

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