HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-class-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> achieved a significant QoQ narrowing down in losses, with improvements at both the Core Local Commerce and New Initiatives segments.</li>
<li>Management appears positive towards the outlook as irrational subsidies have tamed and New Initiatives achieved better efficiency and economics.</li>
<li>The stock trades on 2.8x P/B (over 1SD below average) and the turnaround in next two years means PERs of 21.6x and 14.4x for FY27 and FY28 justified.</li>
</ul>



Meituan (3690 HK) achieved a significant QoQ narrowing down in losses, with improvements at both the Core Local Commerce and New Initiatives segments.
Management appears positive towards the outlook as irrational subsidies have tamed and New Initiatives achieved better efficiency and economics.
The stock trades on 2.8x P/B (over 1SD below average) and the turnaround in next two years means PERs of 21.6x and 14.4x for FY27 and FY28 justified.


2026 High Conviction Update: Meituan (3690 HK) - Seeing Positive Signs

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Suzhou Dongshan Precision A / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzhou-dongshan-precision-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8796:1" rel="noopener">Suzhou Dongshan Precision A (002384 CH,</a> SDPM), a global PCB and other component provider, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>SDPM was the largest PCB supplier for edge AI devices, the second-largest FPC supplier and a top three PCB supplier globally by revenue in 2024, according to CIC.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.</li>
</ul>



Suzhou Dongshan Precision A (002384 CH, SDPM), a global PCB and other component provider, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
SDPM was the largest PCB supplier for edge AI devices, the second-largest FPC supplier and a top three PCB supplier globally by revenue in 2024, according to CIC.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.


Aequitas: Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manuf A/H IPO - Stock Running on AI, Despite Lacklustre Past

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>'s FY25 result is at the low end of the loss range it indicated. However, gross and operating margins have signs of stabilisation in 4Q25. </li>
<li>We have already passed the trough of the Core Local Commerce as the government has stepped up anti-involution efforts, and losses and margins have improved QoQ.</li>
<li>Loss of New Initiatives has expanded QoQ, but Keeta in Saudi Arabia is breaking even sooner than expected, which is positive.</li>
</ul>



Meituan (3690 HK)'s FY25 result is at the low end of the loss range it indicated. However, gross and operating margins have signs of stabilisation in 4Q25. 
We have already passed the trough of the Core Local Commerce as the government has stepped up anti-involution efforts, and losses and margins have improved QoQ.
Loss of New Initiatives has expanded QoQ, but Keeta in Saudi Arabia is breaking even sooner than expected, which is positive.


2026 High Conviction Update: Meituan (3690 HK) - Still Convinced

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The March rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.</li>
<li>The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$38.8bn (US$4.96bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-molybdenum-co-ltd-d9c46a67-e31f-431f-9f5f-02222265d701" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8585:1" rel="noopener">China Molybdenum</a> are the largest net buys, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">SMIC</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lenovo-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13359:1" rel="noopener">Lenovo</a> are the largest net sells.</li>
</ul>


The March rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$38.8bn (US$4.96bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.

Tencent, Xiaomi, Meituan, Alibaba, Horizon Robotics, NetEase and China Molybdenum are the largest net buys, while HSBC Holdings, BYD, SMIC, JD.com and Lenovo are the largest net sells.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$5bn of Flows Post Capping (Mar 2026)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>'s FY25 profit warning indicated its overall loss and loss for the Core Local Commerce segment have narrowed sequentially in 4Q25.   </li>
<li>While it will remain in the red in 1Q26, the government's anti-involution benefits will filter through in the next few quarters, underpinning a return to profit. </li>
<li>Its FY27 PER of 14.1x is inexpensive relative to bigger peers. With a projected ROE of 18.5%, its P/B multiple of 3.2x is also not expensive. </li>
</ul>



Meituan (3690 HK)'s FY25 profit warning indicated its overall loss and loss for the Core Local Commerce segment have narrowed sequentially in 4Q25.   
While it will remain in the red in 1Q26, the government's anti-involution benefits will filter through in the next few quarters, underpinning a return to profit. 
Its FY27 PER of 14.1x is inexpensive relative to bigger peers. With a projected ROE of 18.5%, its P/B multiple of 3.2x is also not expensive. 


2026 High Conviction Update: Meituan (3690 HK) - Clearer Skies

China

Meituan is a Chinese technology company that operates a platform for local services, including on-demand food delivery, in-store services, consumer reviews, hotel and travel bookings, and instant retail. The company also offers bike sharing, e-moped sharing, and grocery delivery services. Meituan is headquartered in Beijing, China, and was founded in 2010.

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Meituan (3690 HK)

2026 High Conviction Update: Meituan (3690 HK) - Seeing Positive Signs

Meituan sees QoQ loss reduction with positive outlook on improved efficiency and economics. The stock trades on 1SD below average P/B but this is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Aequitas: Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manuf A/H IPO - Stock Running on AI, Despite Lacklustre Past

Suzhou Dongshan Precision A (002384 CH, SDPM), a global PCB and other component provider, is now said to be looking to raise up to US$3bn. We will...

Sumeet Singh

2026 High Conviction Update: Meituan (3690 HK) - Still Convinced

Meituan's FY25 results show signs of stabilisation in margins with losses at the low end of the profit warning, indicating improvement in core...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$5bn of Flows Post Capping (Mar 2026)

The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSHKBIO indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the...

Brian Freitas

2026 High Conviction Update: Meituan (3690 HK) - Clearer Skies

Meituan's profit warning shows narrowing overall and Core Local Commerce losses in 4Q25, with potential return to profit in FY26 due to government...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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2026 High Conviction Update: Meituan (3690 HK) - Seeing Positive Signs

​Meituan sees QoQ loss reduction with positive outlook on improved efficiency and economics. The stock trades on 1SD below average P/B but this is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Aequitas: Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manuf A/H IPO - Stock Running on AI, Despite Lacklustre Past

Suzhou Dongshan Precision A (002384 CH, SDPM), a global PCB and other component provider, is now said to be looking to raise up to US$3bn. We will...

Sumeet Singh

2026 High Conviction Update: Meituan (3690 HK) - Still Convinced

​Meituan's FY25 results show signs of stabilisation in margins with losses at the low end of the profit warning, indicating improvement in core...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$5bn of Flows Post Capping (Mar 2026)

The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSHKBIO indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the...

Brian Freitas

2026 High Conviction Update: Meituan (3690 HK) - Clearer Skies

​Meituan's profit warning shows narrowing overall and Core Local Commerce losses in 4Q25, with potential return to profit in FY26 due to government...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Meituan sees QoQ loss reduction with positive outlook on improved efficiency and economics. The stock trades on 1SD below average P/B but this is...

Meituan's FY25 results show signs of stabilisation in margins with losses at the low end of the profit warning, indicating improvement in core...

Meituan's profit warning shows narrowing overall and Core Local Commerce losses in 4Q25, with potential return to profit in FY26 due to government...