Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>One-Month implied volatility for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> has decreased from recent highs to around its three-year median, while realized volatility, a lagging indicator, remains significantly higher at the 87th percentile.</li>
<li>The term structure is flat, with May and June implied volatilities nearly identical, indicating no significant impact from the upcoming earnings announcement in early June.</li>
<li>Open interest is spread over the next nine months, with April calls concentrated at strikes 145 to 150 and deep out of the money calls at strikes 180 to 200.</li>
</ul>


One-Month implied volatility for Meituan (3690 HK) has decreased from recent highs to around its three-year median, while realized volatility, a lagging indicator, remains significantly higher at the 87th percentile.
The term structure is flat, with May and June implied volatilities nearly identical, indicating no significant impact from the upcoming earnings announcement in early June.
Open interest is spread over the next nine months, with April calls concentrated at strikes 145 to 150 and deep out of the money calls at strikes 180 to 200.


Meituan (3690 HK): Options Insights and Analysis, Skew Shift Amid Earnings Calm

<ul>
<li>Over the past five trading days, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.</li>
<li>Long volatility strategies dominate, with the ratio of bearish vs. bullish positions approximately 2:1.</li>
<li>Diagonal Spreads account for 25% of all strategies and can make for near self-financing strategies. </li>
</ul>


Over the past five trading days, Meituan (3690 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
Long volatility strategies dominate, with the ratio of bearish vs. bullish positions approximately 2:1.
Diagonal Spreads account for 25% of all strategies and can make for near self-financing strategies. 


Meituan (3690 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Meituan, China Jinmao, Lenovo, AAC Technologies, China Hongqiao</li>
<li>US President Donald Trump has announced on Truth Social a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for more than 75 countries, with these countries to be charged a “substantially lowered reciprocal tariff” of 10% during this transition.</li>
<li>That said, Mr Trump raised tariffs on China to 125% (from 104%), after China raised its own tariffs on US imports to 84% (from 34%) in a retaliatory move earlier yesterday.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Meituan, China Jinmao, Lenovo, AAC Technologies, China Hongqiao
US President Donald Trump has announced on Truth Social a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for more than 75 countries, with these countries to be charged a “substantially lowered reciprocal tariff” of 10% during this transition.
That said, Mr Trump raised tariffs on China to 125% (from 104%), after China raised its own tariffs on US imports to 84% (from 34%) in a retaliatory move earlier yesterday.


Leonard Law, CFA

<ul>
<li>In the US, New York Fed President John Williams said tariffs could produce “more prolonged effects” on inflation, as indirect effects from the new duties “might not be fully felt for a couple of years”.</li>
<li>Mr Williams added that “there’s a lot of uncertainty about how the economy will evolve and a lot of uncertainty about all the policy actions”, and hence expects the US central bank to keep interest rates unchanged for “some time”.</li>
<li>Treasuries gained for a second day yesterday on continued safe-haven flows, ahead of US President Donald Trump’s expected announcement of reciprocal tariffs tomorrow.</li>
</ul>


In the US, New York Fed President John Williams said tariffs could produce “more prolonged effects” on inflation, as indirect effects from the new duties “might not be fully felt for a couple of years”.
Mr Williams added that “there’s a lot of uncertainty about how the economy will evolve and a lot of uncertainty about all the policy actions”, and hence expects the US central bank to keep interest rates unchanged for “some time”.
Treasuries gained for a second day yesterday on continued safe-haven flows, ahead of US President Donald Trump’s expected announcement of reciprocal tariffs tomorrow.


Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Meituan reported C4Q24 revenue in-line, and non-IFRS OP miss 7.9%/1.9% vs. our estimate/consensus, due to extra Opex on purchasing GPU, while core biz profitability improved.</li>
<li>We see membership initiatives and enhancing O2O penetration as the main catalyst in 2025, and the downside risk on competition, social security, and overseas investment are limited.</li>
<li>We rise TP to HK$196 to factor in the promising OP growth trajectory and keep as TOP BUY in China e-commerce.</li>
</ul>


Meituan reported C4Q24 revenue in-line, and non-IFRS OP miss 7.9%/1.9% vs. our estimate/consensus, due to extra Opex on purchasing GPU, while core biz profitability improved.
We see membership initiatives and enhancing O2O penetration as the main catalyst in 2025, and the downside risk on competition, social security, and overseas investment are limited.
We rise TP to HK$196 to factor in the promising OP growth trajectory and keep as TOP BUY in China e-commerce.


[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$196) TP Change]: Sustained Operating Profit Growth in 2025…TOP BUY

China

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

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Meituan (3690 HK)

Meituan (3690 HK): Options Insights and Analysis, Skew Shift Amid Earnings Calm

Meituan's implied volatility has dropped to median levels, but realized volatility remains high. Flat term structure suggests little impact from...

Gaudenz Schneider

Meituan (3690 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

Meituan's multi-leg option strategies show dominance of long volatility and 25% use of Diagonal Spreads, providing a variety of approaches in the...

Gaudenz Schneider

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Meituan, China Jinmao, Lenovo, AAC...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

Treasuries gained for a second day yesterday on continued safe-haven flows, ahead of US President Donald Trump’s expected announcement of...

Lucror Analytics

[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$196) TP Change]: Sustained Operating Profit Growth in 2025…TOP BUY

Meituan's revenue in-line, OP miss due to extra Opex on GPU, but core biz profitability improved. Membership initiatives and O2O penetration seen...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Meituan (3690 HK): Options Insights and Analysis, Skew Shift Amid Earnings Calm

​Meituan's implied volatility has dropped to median levels, but realized volatility remains high. Flat term structure suggests little impact from...

Gaudenz Schneider

Meituan (3690 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

​Meituan's multi-leg option strategies show dominance of long volatility and 25% use of Diagonal Spreads, providing a variety of approaches in the...

Gaudenz Schneider

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Meituan, China Jinmao, Lenovo, AAC...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

Treasuries gained for a second day yesterday on continued safe-haven flows, ahead of US President Donald Trump’s expected announcement of...

Lucror Analytics

[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$196) TP Change]: Sustained Operating Profit Growth in 2025…TOP BUY

​Meituan's revenue in-line, OP miss due to extra Opex on GPU, but core biz profitability improved. Membership initiatives and O2O penetration seen...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Meituan's implied volatility has dropped to median levels, but realized volatility remains high. Flat term structure suggests little impact from...

Meituan's multi-leg option strategies show dominance of long volatility and 25% use of Diagonal Spreads, providing a variety of approaches in the...

Meituan's revenue in-line, OP miss due to extra Opex on GPU, but core biz profitability improved. Membership initiatives and O2O penetration seen...