Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13644" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13644:1">Coach Inc (COH US)</a> fell another -2.3% today in the US after an analyst downgrade, and the stock is down -14.4% since reporting unexciting Q4 FY16 earnings results on the morning of August 9th. We remain bearish on the stock; in our view, the Street's sales and earnings estimates for FY17 and FY18 remain far too optimistic given weaker spending by Asian tourists in the US and overly aggressive Street assumptions for Japanese and Chinese consumer spending. We also believe that COH will struggle to…

Coach Inc (COH US) fell another -2.3% today in the US after an analyst downgrade, and the stock is down -14.4% since reporting unexciting Q4 FY16 earnings results on the morning of August 9th. We remain bearish on the stock; in our view, the Street's sales and earnings estimates for FY17 and FY18 remain far too optimistic given weaker spending by Asian tourists in the US and overly aggressive Street assumptions for Japanese and Chinese consumer spending. We also believe that COH will struggle to…

July Tourism & Macro Data Suggest Coach Q1 FY17 Will Disappoint

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> will get done. Be bullish the back end too. It is theoretically possible this could still get blocked. Be bullish that outcome too.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Toyota and a quick take on Macau gaming plays, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


The Offer for Toyota Industries (6201 JP) will get done. Be bullish the back end too. It is theoretically possible this could still get blocked. Be bullish that outcome too.
Preceding my comments on Toyota and a quick take on Macau gaming plays, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Toyota Industries, Macau Gaming Plays

<ul>
<li>Investors see value in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>. Many are concerned TICO and TM will deliberately engage in bad corporate governance to punish minorities if the Offer doesn't go through.</li>
<li>It's doubtful an international tribunal has the clout to overturn <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CKH (1 HK)</a>'s Supreme Court decision. The safe takeaway here is that this entire construct won't be concluded anytime soon.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International Development (200 HK)</a>'s divergence with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-crown-entertainme-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:810:1" rel="noopener">Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US)</a> is a curious thing. Is a statutory merger in the wings?</li>
</ul>


Investors see value in Toyota Industries (6201 JP). Many are concerned TICO and TM will deliberately engage in bad corporate governance to punish minorities if the Offer doesn't go through.
It's doubtful an international tribunal has the clout to overturn CKH (1 HK)'s Supreme Court decision. The safe takeaway here is that this entire construct won't be concluded anytime soon.

Melco International Development (200 HK)'s divergence with Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US) is a curious thing. Is a statutory merger in the wings?


Last Week In Event SPACE: CKH, Toyota Industries, Melco, Rio/Glencore, Guoco

Melco International Development / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After a possible short squeeze last month, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International Development (200 HK)</a> shows no signs of retracing. There was another material move in the spread yesterday.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Melco are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


After a possible short squeeze last month, Melco International Development (200 HK) shows no signs of retracing. There was another material move in the spread yesterday.
Preceding my comments on Melco are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Musings On A Statutory Merger For Melco Resorts

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-xdc-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39917:1" rel="noopener">WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK)</a>'s Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/biodlink-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28192:1" rel="noopener">BioDlink International (1875 HK)</a> will add an additional discount layer to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">WuXi Biologics (2269 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on WuXi stable - and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International Development (200 HK)</a> - are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK)'s Offer for BioDlink International (1875 HK) will add an additional discount layer to WuXi Biologics (2269 HK). 
Preceding my comments on WuXi stable - and Melco International Development (200 HK) - are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: WuXi Biologics (2269 HK)'s Double Discounts; Melco (200 HK) Further Out Of Whack

Hong Kong

Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited is a developer, owner, and operator of integrated resorts with entertainment and casino gaming facilities across Asia and Europe. The company's portfolio includes properties such as City of Dreams Macau, Altira Macau, Studio City Macau, City of Dreams Manila, and City of Dreams Mediterranean, as well as the Mocha Clubs slot machine brand. Incorporated in 2004, the company is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO US)

July Tourism & Macro Data Suggest Coach Q1 FY17 Will Disappoint

Coach Inc (COH US) fell another -2.3% today in the US after an analyst downgrade, and the stock is down -14.4% since reporting unexciting Q4 FY16...

Daniel Hellberg

StubWorld: Toyota Industries, Macau Gaming Plays

The Offer for Toyota Industries (6201 JP) will get done. Be bullish the back end too. It is theoretically possible this could still get blocked. Be...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: CKH, Toyota Industries, Melco, Rio/Glencore, Guoco

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Musings On A Statutory Merger For Melco Resorts

Melco appears a short. But I've called this trade incorrectly lately. Melco has roughly performed in line with HK-listed peers. It is MLCO that has...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: WuXi Biologics (2269 HK)'s Double Discounts; Melco (200 HK) Further Out Of Whack

WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK)'s Offer for BioDlink International (1875 HK) will add an additional discount layer to WuXi Biologics (2269 HK). Plus...

David Blennerhassett

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