Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">BABA US)</a> will announce FY2026 results on 13 May, three trading days before the 15 May US-listed options expiry.</li>
<li>Options markets price an earnings move above the historical range, while elevated straddle break-evens set a high bar for long-volatility strategies.</li>
<li>Gain insight into Alibaba’s earnings-day price history, upside/downside reaction pattern, and volatility term structure ahead of the upcoming results announcement.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba (9988 HK / BABA US) will announce FY2026 results on 13 May, three trading days before the 15 May US-listed options expiry.
Options markets price an earnings move above the historical range, while elevated straddle break-evens set a high bar for long-volatility strategies.
Gain insight into Alibaba’s earnings-day price history, upside/downside reaction pattern, and volatility term structure ahead of the upcoming results announcement.


Alibaba (BABA US): Options Price a Big Earnings Move on 13 May

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (BABA US)</a> will announce quarterly results on Thursday, March 19, 7:30 p.m. HKT (7:30 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time).</li>
<li>Options markets anticipate a significant price move, in-line with history. Implied volatility is expected to drop significantly after the event.</li>
<li>Gain insight into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba's (9988 HK)</a> earnings-day price history, volatility setup, and volatility dynamics to be ready for the upcoming announcement.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba (9988 HK) / Alibaba (BABA US) will announce quarterly results on Thursday, March 19, 7:30 p.m. HKT (7:30 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time).
Options markets anticipate a significant price move, in-line with history. Implied volatility is expected to drop significantly after the event.
Gain insight into Alibaba's (9988 HK) earnings-day price history, volatility setup, and volatility dynamics to be ready for the upcoming announcement.


Alibaba (9988 HK / BABA US) Earnings on 19 March: Price Dynamics and Expected Moves

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paypay-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35269:1" rel="noopener">PayPay (PAYP US)</a> (PP), a payments and financial services platform, is now looking to raise up to US$1.1bn in its upcoming US IPO.</li>
<li>PP operates a digital finance platform that serves as a payment solution for users and merchants, along with offering additional services.</li>
<li>We have looked at its past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our earlier notes. In this note, we provide our thoughts on valuations.</li>
</ul>



PayPay (PAYP US) (PP), a payments and financial services platform, is now looking to raise up to US$1.1bn in its upcoming US IPO.
PP operates a digital finance platform that serves as a payment solution for users and merchants, along with offering additional services.
We have looked at its past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our earlier notes. In this note, we provide our thoughts on valuations.


Aequitas: PayPay IPO - Thoughts on Valuations

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paypay-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35269:1" rel="noopener">PayPay (PAYP US)</a> (PP), a Japanese payments and financial services platform, is looking to raise up to US$2bn in its upcoming US IPO.</li>
<li>PP operates a digital finance platform that serves as a payment solution for users and merchants, along with offering additional services.</li>
<li>We have looked at its past performance in our earlier note. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.</li>
</ul>



PayPay (PAYP US) (PP), a Japanese payments and financial services platform, is looking to raise up to US$2bn in its upcoming US IPO.
PP operates a digital finance platform that serves as a payment solution for users and merchants, along with offering additional services.
We have looked at its past performance in our earlier note. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.


Aequitas: PayPay Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison

Equity Research Analyst - Long-Short

Raj S, CA, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Sea Ltd’s current margin pressure is investment-driven, not price-war driven, with logistics expansion and loyalty programs weighing short-term but strengthening long-term platform economics.</li>
<li>Shopee monetization remains intact with scaling ads and stable take-rates, while Gaming and DFS provide stable earnings and growth support, reducing reliance on near-term e-commerce margin recovery.</li>
<li>At ~0.8x forward sales for Shopee, valuation is depressed; normalization toward 2.0x–2.8x supports ~60% base-case and ~90% upside potential.</li>
</ul>


Sea Ltd’s current margin pressure is investment-driven, not price-war driven, with logistics expansion and loyalty programs weighing short-term but strengthening long-term platform economics.
Shopee monetization remains intact with scaling ads and stable take-rates, while Gaming and DFS provide stable earnings and growth support, reducing reliance on near-term e-commerce margin recovery.
At ~0.8x forward sales for Shopee, valuation is depressed; normalization toward 2.0x–2.8x supports ~60% base-case and ~90% upside potential.


Sea Ltd (SE US): Shopee Trading at Trough Valuations

Brazil

MercadoLibre, Inc. operates an online trading site for the Latin American markets. The Company's website allows businesses and individuals to list items, conduct sales, and purchases online in either a fixed-price and auction format. MercadoLibre offers classified advertisements for motor vehicles, vessels, aircraft, and real estate, as well as online payment services.

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MercadoLibre (MELI US)

Alibaba (BABA US): Options Price a Big Earnings Move on 13 May

Alibaba reports FY2026 results on 13 May, with options pricing a larger-than-usual move and volatility strategies facing a high break-even hurdle.

Gaudenz Schneider

Alibaba (9988 HK / BABA US) Earnings on 19 March: Price Dynamics and Expected Moves

This Insight examines historical earnings reactions, options-implied moves, volatility crush dynamics, HK/US implied volatility comparison, and the...

Gaudenz Schneider

Aequitas: PayPay IPO - Thoughts on Valuations

PayPay (PAYP US) (PP), a payments and financial services platform, is now looking to raise up to US$1.1bn in its upcoming US IPO. In this note, we...

Sumeet Singh

Aequitas: PayPay Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison

PayPay (PAYP US) (PP), a Japanese payments and financial services platform, is looking to raise up to US$2bn in its upcoming US IPO. In this note,...

Sumeet Singh

Sea Ltd (SE US): Shopee Trading at Trough Valuations

Sea Ltd's margin pressure is due to investment in logistics and loyalty programs, not price wars. Valuation for Shopee will re-rate as this margin...

Raj S, CA, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Alibaba (BABA US): Options Price a Big Earnings Move on 13 May

Alibaba reports FY2026 results on 13 May, with options pricing a larger-than-usual move and volatility strategies facing a high break-even hurdle.

Gaudenz Schneider

Alibaba (9988 HK / BABA US) Earnings on 19 March: Price Dynamics and Expected Moves

This Insight examines historical earnings reactions, options-implied moves, volatility crush dynamics, HK/US implied volatility comparison, and the...

Gaudenz Schneider

Aequitas: PayPay IPO - Thoughts on Valuations

PayPay (PAYP US) (PP), a payments and financial services platform, is now looking to raise up to US$1.1bn in its upcoming US IPO. In this note, we...

Sumeet Singh

Aequitas: PayPay Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison

PayPay (PAYP US) (PP), a Japanese payments and financial services platform, is looking to raise up to US$2bn in its upcoming US IPO. In this note,...

Sumeet Singh

Sea Ltd (SE US): Shopee Trading at Trough Valuations

​Sea Ltd's margin pressure is due to investment in logistics and loyalty programs, not price wars. Valuation for Shopee will re-rate as this margin...

Raj S, CA, CFA

Sea Ltd's margin pressure is due to investment in logistics and loyalty programs, not price wars. Valuation for Shopee will re-rate as this margin...