Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>LatAm credit markets ended the week mixed as the LatAm Aggregate Index widened to 280 bps while EM spreads and U.S. yields remained stable.</li>
<li>In 2Q25 earnings, Vista, Minerva, and YPF delivered strong results supporting Overweight views, while Suzano, Cemex, and Telecom face spread constraints amid operational pressures.</li>
<li>MercadoLibre’s growth remains solid but limited spread compression, and Pemex benefits from government support.</li>
</ul>


LatAm credit markets ended the week mixed as the LatAm Aggregate Index widened to 280 bps while EM spreads and U.S. yields remained stable.
In 2Q25 earnings, Vista, Minerva, and YPF delivered strong results supporting Overweight views, while Suzano, Cemex, and Telecom face spread constraints amid operational pressures.
MercadoLibre’s growth remains solid but limited spread compression, and Pemex benefits from government support.


Weekly News & Views - 2Q25 Earnings Recap

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>MercadoLibre reported solid performance for the second quarter of 2025, marked by a substantial revenue increase of over 30% year-on-year and record income from operations of $825 million.</li><li>The company's strategy to lower the free shipping threshold in Brazil for the third time in five years reflects its goal of increasing online retail by minimizing transaction barriers.</li><li>This initiative reportedly attracted new users and enhanced engagement with existing ones, positively impacting gross merchandise value (GMV) growth, especially in June.</li></ul>

MercadoLibre reported solid performance for the second quarter of 2025, marked by a substantial revenue increase of over 30% year-on-year and record income from operations of $825 million.The company's strategy to lower the free shipping threshold in Brazil for the third time in five years reflects its goal of increasing online retail by minimizing transaction barriers.This initiative reportedly attracted new users and enhanced engagement with existing ones, positively impacting gross merchandise value (GMV) growth, especially in June.

MercadoLibre Inc.: E-commerce Expansion & Free Shipping Strategy to Enhance Overall Value Proposition!

<ul>
<li>U.S. Tariff Escalation: Credit Implications for Brazilian Companies in Our Coverage / MercadoLibre Achieves Full Investment Grade Status with S&amp;P Upgrade / Pemex Eyes US$8bn from Mixed Contracts</li>
<li>Initiating Coverage on Gerdau: IG Credit with US Exposure, Limited Spread Upside / Fitch Affirms Gerdau at BBB with Stable Outlook on Strong Fundamentals</li>
<li>Vista 2Q25: Results Reinforce Overweight, But Cash Burn and Liquidity Weaken Buffer / US Reinforces Argentina’s Appeal in YPF Expropriation Case</li>
</ul>


U.S. Tariff Escalation: Credit Implications for Brazilian Companies in Our Coverage / MercadoLibre Achieves Full Investment Grade Status with S&amp;P Upgrade / Pemex Eyes US$8bn from Mixed Contracts
Initiating Coverage on Gerdau: IG Credit with US Exposure, Limited Spread Upside / Fitch Affirms Gerdau at BBB with Stable Outlook on Strong Fundamentals
Vista 2Q25: Results Reinforce Overweight, But Cash Burn and Liquidity Weaken Buffer / US Reinforces Argentina’s Appeal in YPF Expropriation Case


<ul><li>MercadoLibre, the leading e-commerce and fintech company in Latin America, has reported its financial performance for the first quarter of 2025, showcasing strong growth across its major business segments.</li><li>The company continues to consolidate its position as a key player in both the e-commerce and financial services sectors in the region.</li><li>On the positive side, MercadoLibre has maintained robust growth in net revenues, reflecting the momentum achieved in 2024.</li></ul>

MercadoLibre, the leading e-commerce and fintech company in Latin America, has reported its financial performance for the first quarter of 2025, showcasing strong growth across its major business segments.The company continues to consolidate its position as a key player in both the e-commerce and financial services sectors in the region.On the positive side, MercadoLibre has maintained robust growth in net revenues, reflecting the momentum achieved in 2024.

MercadoLibre's Fintech Empire Is Growing: Credit

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>MercadoLibre is now owned by 47% of GEM funds, with average weights hitting record highs of 1.18%. </li>
<li>Activity is balanced, but high-conviction growth managers remain well invested.</li>
<li>Despite some outflows, MercadoLibre remains a core growth story in GEM portfolios, climbing the ranks to the 16th most widely owned stock in the EM universe.</li>
</ul>


MercadoLibre is now owned by 47% of GEM funds, with average weights hitting record highs of 1.18%. 
Activity is balanced, but high-conviction growth managers remain well invested.
Despite some outflows, MercadoLibre remains a core growth story in GEM portfolios, climbing the ranks to the 16th most widely owned stock in the EM universe.


MercadoLibre, Inc. – High Growth Funds Push Exposure to Record Levels

Brazil

MercadoLibre, Inc. operates an online trading site for the Latin American markets. The Company's website allows businesses and individuals to list items, conduct sales, and purchases online in either a fixed-price and auction format. MercadoLibre offers classified advertisements for motor vehicles, vessels, aircraft, and real estate, as well as online payment services.

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MercadoLibre (MELI US)

Weekly News & Views - 2Q25 Earnings Recap

LatAm credit markets show mixed results, with some companies delivering strong earnings while others face operational pressures.

Leandro Gubler

MercadoLibre Inc.: E-commerce Expansion & Free Shipping Strategy to Enhance Overall Value Proposition!

MercadoLibre reported solid performance for the second quarter of 2025, marked by a substantial revenue increase of over 30% year-on-year and...

Baptista Research

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

US tariffs impact Brazilian companies, MercadoLibre achieves investment grade, Pemex eyes $8bn, Gerdau coverage initiated, Vista 2Q25 results, US...

Leandro Gubler

MercadoLibre's Fintech Empire Is Growing: Credit

MercadoLibre, the leading e-commerce and fintech company in Latin America, has reported its financial performance for the first quarter of 2025,...

Baptista Research

MercadoLibre, Inc. – High Growth Funds Push Exposure to Record Levels

With 47% of funds invested in MercadoLibre it becomes the 16th most widely owned name across global EM, cementing MercadoLibre as a core name in...

Steven Holden

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Weekly News & Views - 2Q25 Earnings Recap

​LatAm credit markets show mixed results, with some companies delivering strong earnings while others face operational pressures.

Leandro Gubler

MercadoLibre Inc.: E-commerce Expansion & Free Shipping Strategy to Enhance Overall Value Proposition!

MercadoLibre reported solid performance for the second quarter of 2025, marked by a substantial revenue increase of over 30% year-on-year and...

Baptista Research

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​US tariffs impact Brazilian companies, MercadoLibre achieves investment grade, Pemex eyes $8bn, Gerdau coverage initiated, Vista 2Q25 results, US...

Leandro Gubler

MercadoLibre's Fintech Empire Is Growing: Credit

MercadoLibre, the leading e-commerce and fintech company in Latin America, has reported its financial performance for the first quarter of 2025,...

Baptista Research

MercadoLibre, Inc. – High Growth Funds Push Exposure to Record Levels

With 47% of funds invested in MercadoLibre it becomes the 16th most widely owned name across global EM, cementing MercadoLibre as a core name in...

Steven Holden

LatAm credit markets show mixed results, with some companies delivering strong earnings while others face operational pressures.

US tariffs impact Brazilian companies, MercadoLibre achieves investment grade, Pemex eyes $8bn, Gerdau coverage initiated, Vista 2Q25 results, US...