Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>Argentina’s Economy Grows Above Expectations in February / Vista 1Q25: Strategic Petronas Acquisition Strengthens Credit and Growth Outlook</li>
<li>Fitch Affirms Cemex at 'BBB-'; Stable Outlook Reflects Resilient Credit Profile</li>
<li>Pemex Rig Suspensions Highlight Ongoing Operational and Financial Risks / MercadoLibre CEO Sees U.S.-China Trade War as Major Opportunity</li>
</ul>


Argentina’s Economy Grows Above Expectations in February / Vista 1Q25: Strategic Petronas Acquisition Strengthens Credit and Growth Outlook
Fitch Affirms Cemex at 'BBB-'; Stable Outlook Reflects Resilient Credit Profile
Pemex Rig Suspensions Highlight Ongoing Operational and Financial Risks / MercadoLibre CEO Sees U.S.-China Trade War as Major Opportunity


<ul>
<li>Argentina Secures US$20bn IMF Deal with Currency Controls Eased / Argentina: March CPI Surprise Adds Pressure</li>
<li>Initiating Coverage on Telecom Argentina: Solid Market Position but Uncertain Outlook / Mercado Libre Expands Regional Footprint with $9 Billion in 2025 Investments Across Brazil, Argentina, and Chile</li>
<li>Minerva Announces Capital increase Backed by Sponsors / Mercado Libre Expands Regional Footprint with $9 Billion in 2025 Investments Across Brazil, Argentina, and Chile</li>
</ul>


Argentina Secures US$20bn IMF Deal with Currency Controls Eased / Argentina: March CPI Surprise Adds Pressure
Initiating Coverage on Telecom Argentina: Solid Market Position but Uncertain Outlook / Mercado Libre Expands Regional Footprint with $9 Billion in 2025 Investments Across Brazil, Argentina, and Chile
Minerva Announces Capital increase Backed by Sponsors / Mercado Libre Expands Regional Footprint with $9 Billion in 2025 Investments Across Brazil, Argentina, and Chile


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>MercadoLibre, a dominant e-commerce and financial technology player in Latin America, presented a mixed picture in the latest earnings call.</li><li>The company showcased notable advancements in key geographical markets like Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina, thereby reinforcing its leadership position in the region's e-commerce and fintech sectors.</li><li>As of 2024, MercadoLibre surpassed 100 million unique buyers on its marketplace and achieved over 60 million monthly active users on its fintech platform, indicating considerable user trust and ecosystem integration.</li></ul>

MercadoLibre, a dominant e-commerce and financial technology player in Latin America, presented a mixed picture in the latest earnings call.The company showcased notable advancements in key geographical markets like Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina, thereby reinforcing its leadership position in the region's e-commerce and fintech sectors.As of 2024, MercadoLibre surpassed 100 million unique buyers on its marketplace and achieved over 60 million monthly active users on its fintech platform, indicating considerable user trust and ecosystem integration.

MercadoLibre Inc.: Here Are The 6 Key Drivers Shaping Its Performance for 2025 & Beyond!

<ul>
<li>Vista Energy - Mercado Libre - Telecom Argentina - Suzano - Cemex</li>
<li>The LatAm Aggregate Index expanded by 14 bps to 331 bps in the week ending Friday, February 28, 2025. </li>
<li>U.S. Treasuries saw significant declines. The 10-year yield fell 22 bps to 4.21%, while the 5-year yield declined 25 bps to 4.02%.</li>
</ul>


Vista Energy - Mercado Libre - Telecom Argentina - Suzano - Cemex
The LatAm Aggregate Index expanded by 14 bps to 331 bps in the week ending Friday, February 28, 2025. 
U.S. Treasuries saw significant declines. The 10-year yield fell 22 bps to 4.21%, while the 5-year yield declined 25 bps to 4.02%.


<ul>
<li>Operating metrics exceeded expectations, while credit-fueled growth increased debt. Leverage remained unchanged.</li>
<li>We remain optimistic about MELI’s financial and business risk profile. </li>
<li>If the company achieves IG status, we believe its fundamental strengths are already reflected in current spreads. However, we estimate ~10 basis points of incremental upside from a technical bid.</li>
</ul>


Operating metrics exceeded expectations, while credit-fueled growth increased debt. Leverage remained unchanged.
We remain optimistic about MELI’s financial and business risk profile. 
If the company achieves IG status, we believe its fundamental strengths are already reflected in current spreads. However, we estimate ~10 basis points of incremental upside from a technical bid.


MELI 4Q24: Strong Results, While Leverage Remains Stable Amid Higher Debt

Brazil

MercadoLibre, Inc. operates an online trading site for the Latin American markets. The Company's website allows businesses and individuals to list items, conduct sales, and purchases online in either a fixed-price and auction format. MercadoLibre offers classified advertisements for motor vehicles, vessels, aircraft, and real estate, as well as online payment services.

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MercadoLibre (MELI US)

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

Argentina's economy grows above expectations in February, Fitch affirms Cemex's credit rating, Pemex rig suspensions highlight risks, MercadoLibre...

Leandro Gubler

Weekly News & Views

Argentina secures IMF deal with eased currency controls, Telecom Argentina has solid market position but uncertain outlook, Mercado Libre expands...

Leandro Gubler

MercadoLibre Inc.: Here Are The 6 Key Drivers Shaping Its Performance for 2025 & Beyond!

MercadoLibre, a dominant e-commerce and financial technology player in Latin America, presented a mixed picture in the latest earnings call. The...

Baptista Research

Weekly News & Views - Feb 28, 2025

The LatAm Aggregate Index expanded by 14 bps to 331 bps in the week ending Friday, February 28, 2025. Meanwhile, the broader Emerging Market Index...

Leandro Gubler

MELI 4Q24: Strong Results, While Leverage Remains Stable Amid Higher Debt

MELI's operating metrics exceeded expectations, but credit-fueled growth increased debt. Analysts are optimistic about the company's financial and...

Leandro Gubler

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​Argentina's economy grows above expectations in February, Fitch affirms Cemex's credit rating, Pemex rig suspensions highlight risks, MercadoLibre...

Leandro Gubler

Weekly News & Views

​Argentina secures IMF deal with eased currency controls, Telecom Argentina has solid market position but uncertain outlook, Mercado Libre expands...

Leandro Gubler

MercadoLibre Inc.: Here Are The 6 Key Drivers Shaping Its Performance for 2025 & Beyond!

MercadoLibre, a dominant e-commerce and financial technology player in Latin America, presented a mixed picture in the latest earnings call. The...

Baptista Research

Weekly News & Views - Feb 28, 2025

The LatAm Aggregate Index expanded by 14 bps to 331 bps in the week ending Friday, February 28, 2025. Meanwhile, the broader Emerging Market Index...

Leandro Gubler

MELI 4Q24: Strong Results, While Leverage Remains Stable Amid Higher Debt

​MELI's operating metrics exceeded expectations, but credit-fueled growth increased debt. Analysts are optimistic about the company's financial and...

Leandro Gubler

Argentina's economy grows above expectations in February, Fitch affirms Cemex's credit rating, Pemex rig suspensions highlight risks, MercadoLibre...

Argentina secures IMF deal with eased currency controls, Telecom Argentina has solid market position but uncertain outlook, Mercado Libre expands...

MELI's operating metrics exceeded expectations, but credit-fueled growth increased debt. Analysts are optimistic about the company's financial and...