Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P revised MELI’s credit rating outlook to positive from stable and affirmed its BB+ issuer credit rating.</li>
<li>MELI's credit metrics are considerably stronger than its peers in the high-yield rating category</li>
<li>MELI’s bonds have arguably already been trading at the investment grade level, supported by the company’s solid credit metrics for the rating category.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P revised MELI’s credit rating outlook to positive from stable and affirmed its BB+ issuer credit rating.
MELI's credit metrics are considerably stronger than its peers in the high-yield rating category
MELI’s bonds have arguably already been trading at the investment grade level, supported by the company’s solid credit metrics for the rating category.


MercadoLibre: Analyzing the Market Reaction to S&P’s Outlook Change

<ul>
<li>
Key Outcome: Ecosystem growth remained exceptional, with revenues increasing 49.0% YoY, but profitability weakened as investment intensity weighed on margins.</li>
<li>
Risk/Volatility: Credit expansion, provisions, free shipping, fulfillment, 1P, CBT, and AI investments keep margin recovery gradual and adjusted FCF sensitive.</li>
<li>
Valuation Driver: Neutral remains appropriate as MELI’s 2031s and 2033s trade near EM BBB YTW, with 2033s the preferred exposure.</li>
</ul>



Key Outcome: Ecosystem growth remained exceptional, with revenues increasing 49.0% YoY, but profitability weakened as investment intensity weighed on margins.

Risk/Volatility: Credit expansion, provisions, free shipping, fulfillment, 1P, CBT, and AI investments keep margin recovery gradual and adjusted FCF sensitive.

Valuation Driver: Neutral remains appropriate as MELI’s 2031s and 2033s trade near EM BBB YTW, with 2033s the preferred exposure.


MercadoLibre 1Q26: Full Cart, Thinner Margins

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>MercadoLibre reported robust results for the first quarter of 2026, driven by strategic investments that contributed to its highest revenue growth rate since mid-2022.</li><li>Net revenue rose 49% year-over-year, supported notably by efforts in Brazil, where the company lowered the free shipping threshold, increasing buyer engagement and volume.</li><li>Brazil’s gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew 38% year-over-year with a 56% rise in items sold, reflecting accelerated growth post pricing adjustments.</li></ul>

MercadoLibre reported robust results for the first quarter of 2026, driven by strategic investments that contributed to its highest revenue growth rate since mid-2022.Net revenue rose 49% year-over-year, supported notably by efforts in Brazil, where the company lowered the free shipping threshold, increasing buyer engagement and volume.Brazil’s gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew 38% year-over-year with a 56% rise in items sold, reflecting accelerated growth post pricing adjustments.

MercadoLibre’s AI Search Push: Can Large Language Models Lift Commerce And Ads?

<ul><li>MercadoLibre is often described as the Amazon of Latin America, but that comparison now feels too narrow.</li><li>The company is no longer just a marketplace where buyers find products and sellers list inventory.</li><li>It is increasingly becoming a digital infrastructure layer across Latin America, combining commerce, payments, credit, logistics, advertising, merchant tools, and artificial intelligence inside one ecosystem.</li></ul>

MercadoLibre is often described as the Amazon of Latin America, but that comparison now feels too narrow.The company is no longer just a marketplace where buyers find products and sellers list inventory.It is increasingly becoming a digital infrastructure layer across Latin America, combining commerce, payments, credit, logistics, advertising, merchant tools, and artificial intelligence inside one ecosystem.

MercadoLibre Is Building Something Far Bigger Than Amazon Ever Did In Latin America!

Market Intelligence, ORTEX

ORTEX Market Intel

Market Intelligence

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Equity Derivatives

<ul><li>Sentiment read: Options flow split sharply this week.</li><li>Momentum and ETF names drew aggressive call buying, pushing put-call ratios to historic lows.</li><li>At the same time, traders loaded up on puts ahead of several October and November earnings dates, a pattern that dominated the high-severity alerts.</li></ul>

Sentiment read: Options flow split sharply this week.Momentum and ETF names drew aggressive call buying, pushing put-call ratios to historic lows.At the same time, traders loaded up on puts ahead of several October and November earnings dates, a pattern that dominated the high-severity alerts.

Options Weekly: Bears Circle Earnings Names as Call Fever Grips Momentum Stocks

Brazil

MercadoLibre, Inc. operates an online trading site for the Latin American markets. The Company's website allows businesses and individuals to list items, conduct sales, and purchases online in either a fixed-price and auction format. MercadoLibre offers classified advertisements for motor vehicles, vessels, aircraft, and real estate, as well as online payment services.

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MercadoLibre (MELI US)

MercadoLibre: Analyzing the Market Reaction to S&P’s Outlook Change

S&P upgrades MELI's credit rating outlook to positive, citing strong credit metrics and potential investment grade status for bonds.

Leandro Gubler

MercadoLibre 1Q26: Full Cart, Thinner Margins

MercadoLibre’s growth engine keeps accelerating, but thinner margins, credit expansion, and fair valuation keep bond upside limited. 🚀

Leandro Gubler

MercadoLibre’s AI Search Push: Can Large Language Models Lift Commerce And Ads?

MercadoLibre reported robust results for the first quarter of 2026, driven by strategic investments that contributed to its highest revenue growth...

Baptista Research

MercadoLibre Is Building Something Far Bigger Than Amazon Ever Did In Latin America!

MercadoLibre is often described as the Amazon of Latin America, but that comparison now feels too narrow. The company is no longer just a...

Baptista Research

Options Weekly: Bears Circle Earnings Names as Call Fever Grips Momentum Stocks

Sentiment read: Options flow split sharply this week. Momentum and ETF names drew aggressive call buying, pushing put-call ratios to historic...

ORTEX Market Intel

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MercadoLibre: Analyzing the Market Reaction to S&P’s Outlook Change

​S&P upgrades MELI's credit rating outlook to positive, citing strong credit metrics and potential investment grade status for bonds.

Leandro Gubler

MercadoLibre 1Q26: Full Cart, Thinner Margins

MercadoLibre’s growth engine keeps accelerating, but thinner margins, credit expansion, and fair valuation keep bond upside limited. 🚀

Leandro Gubler

MercadoLibre’s AI Search Push: Can Large Language Models Lift Commerce And Ads?

MercadoLibre reported robust results for the first quarter of 2026, driven by strategic investments that contributed to its highest revenue growth...

Baptista Research

MercadoLibre Is Building Something Far Bigger Than Amazon Ever Did In Latin America!

MercadoLibre is often described as the Amazon of Latin America, but that comparison now feels too narrow. The company is no longer just a...

Baptista Research

Options Weekly: Bears Circle Earnings Names as Call Fever Grips Momentum Stocks

Sentiment read: Options flow split sharply this week. Momentum and ETF names drew aggressive call buying, pushing put-call ratios to historic...

ORTEX Market Intel

S&P upgrades MELI's credit rating outlook to positive, citing strong credit metrics and potential investment grade status for bonds.