Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pfizer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1131:1" rel="noopener">Pfizer Inc (PFE US)</a> reported 13% operational revenue growth in Q4, driven by strong performance of the COVID products and ongoing launch of Prevnar 20 for adults in U.S.</li>
<li>Pfizer has provided full-year 2023 revenue guidance of $67.0–71.0B (-31% YoY at mid-point) and adjusted EPS guidance of $3.25–3.45 (-49% YoY at mid-point).</li>
<li>The company is in the midst of an 18-month period during which Pfizer expects to have up to an unprecedented 19 new products or indications in the market.</li>
</ul>



Pfizer Inc (PFE US) reported 13% operational revenue growth in Q4, driven by strong performance of the COVID products and ongoing launch of Prevnar 20 for adults in U.S.
Pfizer has provided full-year 2023 revenue guidance of $67.0–71.0B (-31% YoY at mid-point) and adjusted EPS guidance of $3.25–3.45 (-49% YoY at mid-point).
The company is in the midst of an 18-month period during which Pfizer expects to have up to an unprecedented 19 new products or indications in the market.


Pfizer Inc (PFE US): Q4 Result- In-Line Revenue & EPS Ahead of Guidance; Initiates 2023 Guidance

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We previously discussed our belief that equities were in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on S&amp;P 500</li>
<li>And, as you will see below, countless other indexes and Sectors are testing important resistance levels. We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500 to cap upside</li>
<li>Buy ideas highlighted within defensives, including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Communications: CMCSA, CHTR, UL, KHC, CAG, SJM, CPB, LLY, MRK, and NVO</li>
</ul>


We previously discussed our belief that equities were in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on S&amp;P 500
And, as you will see below, countless other indexes and Sectors are testing important resistance levels. We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500 to cap upside
Buy ideas highlighted within defensives, including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Communications: CMCSA, CHTR, UL, KHC, CAG, SJM, CPB, LLY, MRK, and NVO


Many Indexes/Sectors Testing Resistance; Limited Upside From Here; Buys in Staples and Health Care

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peptidream-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13514:1" rel="noopener">Peptidream Inc (4587 JP)</a> aspires to be a world leader in drug discovery and development to address unmet medical needs by leveraging on proprietary PDPS technology, a peptide discovery platform.</li>
<li>Driven by expanding research collaboration programs and progressing pipelines, Peptidream guided for revenue of ¥13–15B from drug discovery and development business in 2022, up from ¥9.4B in 2021.</li>
<li>Foray into Radiopharma adds a regular revenue stream. Peptidream expects the business to report revenue of ~¥11.5B and remain marginally profitable for 2022.</li>
</ul>



Peptidream Inc (4587 JP) aspires to be a world leader in drug discovery and development to address unmet medical needs by leveraging on proprietary PDPS technology, a peptide discovery platform.
Driven by expanding research collaboration programs and progressing pipelines, Peptidream guided for revenue of ¥13–15B from drug discovery and development business in 2022, up from ¥9.4B in 2021.
Foray into Radiopharma adds a regular revenue stream. Peptidream expects the business to report revenue of ~¥11.5B and remain marginally profitable for 2022.


Peptidream (4587 JP): Rising Drug Discovery Collaborations To Drive Growth; New Revenue Stream Added

Sinopharm Group Co Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinopharm-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32:1" rel="noopener">Sinopharm Group Co Ltd H (1099 HK)</a> remains a beneficiary of both VBP and China reopening. Consensus expects double-digit revenue and earnings growth for the company in 2023 and 2024.</li>
<li>SinoPharm’s acquisition of VBP varieties constantly stood in the leading position in the industry. Through June 2022, China carried out seven batches of VBP, with 294 categories being included.</li>
<li>With China gradually re-opening, SinoPharm should record accelerated growth in its pharma distribution business. With subsiding COVID-19 cases in Q3, SinoPharm reported 10% YoY and 8% QoQ revenue growth.</li>
</ul>



Sinopharm Group Co Ltd H (1099 HK) remains a beneficiary of both VBP and China reopening. Consensus expects double-digit revenue and earnings growth for the company in 2023 and 2024.
SinoPharm’s acquisition of VBP varieties constantly stood in the leading position in the industry. Through June 2022, China carried out seven batches of VBP, with 294 categories being included.
With China gradually re-opening, SinoPharm should record accelerated growth in its pharma distribution business. With subsiding COVID-19 cases in Q3, SinoPharm reported 10% YoY and 8% QoQ revenue growth.


Sinopharm Group (1099 HK): Industry Tailwind and China Reopening To Drive Growth

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ono-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8979:1" rel="noopener">Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP)</a> is an innovation driven pharmaceutical company, with major focus on oncology. Opdivo, Forxiga, and Orencia are the top three products, together contributing ~75% of product revenue.</li>
<li>While the competition intensified, use of Opdivo for malignant tumors was expanded to first-line treatment for NSCLC, esophageal cancer, and gastric cancer, resulting in FY22 sales of ¥112.4B (+14% y/y).</li>
<li>Ono’s second largest drug Forxiga is also on a double-digit growth path. The company has been expanding its pipeline beyond Opdivo by reinforcement of in-house research and in-licensing activities.</li>
</ul>



Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP) is an innovation driven pharmaceutical company, with major focus on oncology. Opdivo, Forxiga, and Orencia are the top three products, together contributing ~75% of product revenue.
While the competition intensified, use of Opdivo for malignant tumors was expanded to first-line treatment for NSCLC, esophageal cancer, and gastric cancer, resulting in FY22 sales of ¥112.4B (+14% y/y).
Ono’s second largest drug Forxiga is also on a double-digit growth path. The company has been expanding its pipeline beyond Opdivo by reinforcement of in-house research and in-licensing activities.


Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP): Key Drugs On High Growth Trajectory; Pipeline Expands Beyond Opdivo

United States

Merck & Co., Inc.  is a global health care company that delivers health solutions through its prescription medicines, vaccines, biologic therapies, animal health, and consumer care products, which it markets directly and through its joint ventures. The Company has operations in pharmaceutical, animal health, and consumer care.

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Merck & Co (MRK US)

Pfizer Inc (PFE US): Q4 Result- In-Line Revenue & EPS Ahead of Guidance; Initiates 2023 Guidance

Pfizer’s Q4 revenue grew 13% operationally, primarily driven by Comirnaty, Paxlovid, and Prevnar 20. 2023 revenue excluding COVID-19 products is...

Tina Banerjee

Many Indexes/Sectors Testing Resistance; Limited Upside From Here; Buys in Staples and Health Care

We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the $SPX to cap upside. Many other indexes and Sectors are also testing important resistance levels dating back...

Vermilion Research

Peptidream (4587 JP): Rising Drug Discovery Collaborations To Drive Growth; New Revenue Stream Added

In long-term, Peptidream targets ¥100B revenue from ¥9.4B in 2021. While base business is poised for steady growth via expansion of collaboration...

Tina Banerjee

Sinopharm Group (1099 HK): Industry Tailwind and China Reopening To Drive Growth

SinoPharm’s acquisition of VBP varieties is in the leading position in the industry. As depicted by accelerating revenues in the first three...

Tina Banerjee

Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP): Key Drugs On High Growth Trajectory; Pipeline Expands Beyond Opdivo

Driven by indication expansion, Ono expects Opdivo sales to reach ¥155B in FY23, up 38% y/y. The company is developing clinical pipeline beyond...

Tina Banerjee

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