New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>August 2026 was notable for record high electricity demand, near record high solar generation and the FY26 reporting season.</li><li>On the morning of 6 August 2026, electricity demand reached a new all-time high, and in a sign of the future, that demand was met without 1,000MW of thermal generation that was available in 2025.</li><li>In our view, our preferred sector exposures, Mercury (MCY) and Contact Energy (CEN), both rated OUTPERFORM, had the most positive results, followed by Meridian Energy (MEL), rated NEUTRAL.</li></ul>

August 2026 was notable for record high electricity demand, near record high solar generation and the FY26 reporting season.On the morning of 6 August 2026, electricity demand reached a new all-time high, and in a sign of the future, that demand was met without 1,000MW of thermal generation that was available in 2025.In our view, our preferred sector exposures, Mercury (MCY) and Contact Energy (CEN), both rated OUTPERFORM, had the most positive results, followed by Meridian Energy (MEL), rated NEUTRAL.

Power Points Solar Shining Brighter—September 2026

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing, Sacra

Sacra

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing

Bringing transparency to private markets so investors, founders, and employees can build on conviction. Sacra delivers deeply researched insights on the private companies shaping tomorrow's markets. By surfacing the data, context, and operator perspective that are missing from private markets today, we help secondary buyers and sellers price equity accurately and unlock liquidity for the people building these businesses.

Private Capital Markets

<ul><li>With Brex's $5.15B exit to Capital One, the private B2B finance landscape is now defined by Ramp at $1B in annualized revenue (up 110% YoY) expanding from cards &amp; expense management into treasury &amp; deposits, versus Mercury at $650M in annualized revenue expanding from startup banking into the finance backoffice with corporate cards, bill pay &amp; expense management.</li><li>Mercury has decided to transition from neobank to a bank via its December 2025 application for a national bank charter with the OCC and FDIC deposit insurance, vertically integrating to own its underlying banking infrastructure, particularly after the Synapse bankruptcy (April 2024) froze $200M in customer funds and Evolve Bank's cease-and-desist (June 2024) forced Mercury through a painful account migration to Column &amp; Choice Financial Group.</li><li>Unlike Mercury &amp; Brex (which built its own card infrastructure), Ramp has chosen to maximize customer-facing product velocity, focus exclusively on the application layer and partner with infrastructure providers like Marqeta &amp; Stripe on card issuing and Increase for banking, betting that it can transform its majority interchange revenue into a software &amp; AI-heavy revenue mix, maintain 100%+ YoY growth rate and meet &amp; surpass its $32B valuation (32x revenue) as a high-growth AI company, not as a fintech or bank.</li></ul>

With Brex's $5.15B exit to Capital One, the private B2B finance landscape is now defined by Ramp at $1B in annualized revenue (up 110% YoY) expanding from cards &amp; expense management into treasury &amp; deposits, versus Mercury at $650M in annualized revenue expanding from startup banking into the finance backoffice with corporate cards, bill pay &amp; expense management.Mercury has decided to transition from neobank to a bank via its December 2025 application for a national bank charter with the OCC and FDIC deposit insurance, vertically integrating to own its underlying banking infrastructure, particularly after the Synapse bankruptcy (April 2024) froze $200M in customer funds and Evolve Bank's cease-and-desist (June 2024) forced Mercury through a painful account migration to Column &amp; Choice Financial Group.Unlike Mercury &amp; Brex (which built its own card infrastructure), Ramp has chosen to maximize customer-facing product velocity, focus exclusively on the application layer and partner with infrastructure providers like Marqeta &amp; Stripe on card issuing and Increase for banking, betting that it can transform its majority interchange revenue into a software &amp; AI-heavy revenue mix, maintain 100%+ YoY growth rate and meet &amp; surpass its $32B valuation (32x revenue) as a high-growth AI company, not as a fintech or bank.

<ul><li>Mercury both moved customers off of its former banking partner Evolve Bank &amp; Trust and continued to grow in the face of interest rate cuts.</li><li>Sacra estimates Mercury hit $650M in annualized revenue as of September 2025, up from $500M at the end of 2024.</li><li>Two Fed interest rate cuts in the fall of 2025 impacted Mercury’s revenue growth, which centers on interest revenue from deposits, trending at 41% YoY in 2025 down from 97% YoY in 2024.</li></ul>

Mercury both moved customers off of its former banking partner Evolve Bank &amp; Trust and continued to grow in the face of interest rate cuts.Sacra estimates Mercury hit $650M in annualized revenue as of September 2025, up from $500M at the end of 2024.Two Fed interest rate cuts in the fall of 2025 impacted Mercury’s revenue growth, which centers on interest revenue from deposits, trending at 41% YoY in 2025 down from 97% YoY in 2024.

<ul><li>July 2026 was a strong start to FY27 for the NZ electricity sector.</li><li>Very cold weather across the country saw electricity demand reach a new all-time peak of 7,463MW during the morning of 6 August.</li><li>Part of the reason record demand peaks have been met is +200MW of additional grid-scale battery capacity entering the market in the last 12 months, with another +100MW being commissioned, and +300MW under construction, in addition to numerous residential battery systems being installed.</li></ul>

July 2026 was a strong start to FY27 for the NZ electricity sector.Very cold weather across the country saw electricity demand reach a new all-time peak of 7,463MW during the morning of 6 August.Part of the reason record demand peaks have been met is +200MW of additional grid-scale battery capacity entering the market in the last 12 months, with another +100MW being commissioned, and +300MW under construction, in addition to numerous residential battery systems being installed.

Power Points: Battery Powered Shape Shifting—August 2026

<ul><li>The upcoming FY26 results season will see record operating earnings (EBITDAF) reported by three of the four generator-retailers, with Genesis Energy (GNE) just missing out (on our numbers).</li><li>Contact Energy (CEN), Mercury (MCY), and Meridian Energy (MEL) have all had very strong years, in sharp contrast to the weak FY25.</li><li>Renewable generation topped 95% in FY26 across the main four generators, lowering thermal generation costs and avoiding the need for demand response payments to NZAS.</li></ul>

The upcoming FY26 results season will see record operating earnings (EBITDAF) reported by three of the four generator-retailers, with Genesis Energy (GNE) just missing out (on our numbers).Contact Energy (CEN), Mercury (MCY), and Meridian Energy (MEL) have all had very strong years, in sharp contrast to the weak FY25.Renewable generation topped 95% in FY26 across the main four generators, lowering thermal generation costs and avoiding the need for demand response payments to NZAS.

Electricity Sector Renewables Powered Results—FY26 Preview

United States

Banking software for startups offering checking accounts, cards, treasury, and venture debt

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Mercury (MERCURY US)

Power Points Solar Shining Brighter—September 2026

August 2026 was notable for record high electricity demand, near record high solar generation and the FY26 reporting season. On the morning of 6...

Forsyth Barr

Post-Brex Ramp Vs Mercury

TL;DR: While Ramp and Mercury are converging on product with treasury, bank accounts, corporate cards & expense management, they’re diverging on...

Sacra

Mercury At $650M/year

TL;DR: Confronting two major challenges in 2025, Mercury both moved customers off of its former banking partner Evolve Bank & Trust and continued...

Sacra

Power Points: Battery Powered Shape Shifting—August 2026

July 2026 was a strong start to FY27 for the NZ electricity sector. Very cold weather across the country saw electricity demand reach a new...

Forsyth Barr

Electricity Sector Renewables Powered Results—FY26 Preview

The upcoming FY26 results season will see record operating earnings (EBITDAF) reported by three of the four generator-retailers, with Genesis...

Forsyth Barr

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