New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Meridian Energy's (MEL) investor day was a mixture of the good and the bad.</li><li>The net effect—a modest -10cps (-1.6%) reduction in our target price.</li><li>The potential upside is material, but it is too early to ascribe any value to these opportunities.</li></ul>

Meridian Energy's (MEL) investor day was a mixture of the good and the bad.The net effect—a modest -10cps (-1.6%) reduction in our target price.The potential upside is material, but it is too early to ascribe any value to these opportunities.

Meridian Energy Capex Inflation Before Hydro Hope

<ul><li>1Q26 was a solid quarter for Meridian Energy (MEL), in line with expectations, but made to look very strong relative to the very weak 1Q25.</li><li>Retail was the stand-out segment as MEL continues to grow its customer base, mainly organically but also through the acquisition of Flick Electric.</li><li>While the near-term operating outlook is strong, with hydro storage above average in all its catchments, there is an increasing chance summer could be impacted by La Niña, which is often a negative.</li></ul>

1Q26 was a solid quarter for Meridian Energy (MEL), in line with expectations, but made to look very strong relative to the very weak 1Q25.Retail was the stand-out segment as MEL continues to grow its customer base, mainly organically but also through the acquisition of Flick Electric.While the near-term operating outlook is strong, with hydro storage above average in all its catchments, there is an increasing chance summer could be impacted by La Niña, which is often a negative.

Meridian Energy Retail On A Roll—1Q26 Op Stats

<ul><li>We upgrade Meridian Energy (MEL) to OUTPERFORM.</li><li>In addition, in a low-interest-rate environment, electricity stocks should perform well.</li><li>While the FY25 result was terrible (for a low-risk electricity stock), a repeat is highly unlikely—particularly if MEL is successful in obtaining access to contingent hydro storage that currently can only be accessed in extreme situations.</li></ul>

We upgrade Meridian Energy (MEL) to OUTPERFORM.In addition, in a low-interest-rate environment, electricity stocks should perform well.While the FY25 result was terrible (for a low-risk electricity stock), a repeat is highly unlikely—particularly if MEL is successful in obtaining access to contingent hydro storage that currently can only be accessed in extreme situations.

Meridian Energy Ready For The Next Dry Spell—FY25 Result

<ul><li>Meridian Energy (MEL) closed out a difficult FY25 with a solid June 2025 performance but confirmed FY25 is a year to put behind it.</li><li>Positives during the year include MEL’s strong retail performance, with +76k connections added; opex coming in below the low end of guidance; and solid progress on its development pipeline—albeit two projects expected to reach financial close by year end have not.</li><li>While we forecast a significant recovery in FY26 earnings, this is priced in and we retain our NEUTRAL rating.</li></ul>

Meridian Energy (MEL) closed out a difficult FY25 with a solid June 2025 performance but confirmed FY25 is a year to put behind it.Positives during the year include MEL’s strong retail performance, with +76k connections added; opex coming in below the low end of guidance; and solid progress on its development pipeline—albeit two projects expected to reach financial close by year end have not.While we forecast a significant recovery in FY26 earnings, this is priced in and we retain our NEUTRAL rating.

Meridian Energy The Only Way Is Up—June 2025 Op Stats

<ul><li>FY25 is expected to be Meridian Energy's worst operating result in over a decade, driven by extreme hydro conditions and high-cost replacement generation.</li><li>Despite a challenging FY25, operational improvements and the Flick Electric acquisition are expected to boost earnings for FY26 and beyond.</li><li>The NEUTRAL rating is maintained due to premium trading against peers and sector uncertainties from regulatory and political reviews.</li></ul>

FY25 is expected to be Meridian Energy's worst operating result in over a decade, driven by extreme hydro conditions and high-cost replacement generation.Despite a challenging FY25, operational improvements and the Flick Electric acquisition are expected to boost earnings for FY26 and beyond.The NEUTRAL rating is maintained due to premium trading against peers and sector uncertainties from regulatory and political reviews.

Meridian Energy - Closing Out Its Annus Horribilis

New Zealand

Meridian Energy Ltd. operates as a state-owned electricity generator. The Company produces hydro-electric power and supplies electricity to residential, business, and rural customers. Meridian Energy provides services throughout New Zealand.

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Meridian Energy (MEL NZ)

Meridian Energy Capex Inflation Before Hydro Hope

Meridian Energy's (MEL) investor day was a mixture of the good and the bad. The net effect—a modest -10cps (-1.6%) reduction in our target price.

Forsyth Barr

Meridian Energy Retail On A Roll—1Q26 Op Stats

1Q26 was a solid quarter for Meridian Energy (MEL), in line with expectations, but made to look very strong relative to the very weak 1Q25.

Forsyth Barr

Meridian Energy Ready For The Next Dry Spell—FY25 Result

We upgrade Meridian Energy (MEL) to OUTPERFORM.In addition, in a low-interest-rate environment, electricity stocks should perform well.

Forsyth Barr

Meridian Energy The Only Way Is Up—June 2025 Op Stats

Meridian Energy (MEL) closed out a difficult FY25 with a solid June 2025 performance but confirmed FY25 is a year to put behind it.

Forsyth Barr

Meridian Energy - Closing Out Its Annus Horribilis

FY25 is expected to be Meridian Energy's worst operating result in over a decade, driven by extreme hydro conditions and high-cost replacement...

Forsyth Barr

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