New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The generator-retailer 1H26 reporting season is upon us.</li><li>Meridian Energy (MEL) bore the brunt of the pain in 1H25, and we anticipate it will almost double EBITDAF.</li><li>All companies are expected to report healthy operating performance increases relative to 1H25, mainly because 1H25 included the effects of the dry 2024 winter.</li></ul>

The generator-retailer 1H26 reporting season is upon us.Meridian Energy (MEL) bore the brunt of the pain in 1H25, and we anticipate it will almost double EBITDAF.All companies are expected to report healthy operating performance increases relative to 1H25, mainly because 1H25 included the effects of the dry 2024 winter.

Electricity Sector Swimming With the Current—1H26 Preview

<ul><li>Meridian Energy (MEL) finished 1H26 with another solid month and is set to report a record half-year result.</li><li>MEL’s retail performance was a key driver, with strong customer growth allowing MEL to receive a greater benefit from record hydro generation, despite consequently low wholesale prices.</li><li>We expect pricing momentum, further retail growth, and high hydro storage to lead to another strong half in 2H26.</li></ul>

Meridian Energy (MEL) finished 1H26 with another solid month and is set to report a record half-year result.MEL’s retail performance was a key driver, with strong customer growth allowing MEL to receive a greater benefit from record hydro generation, despite consequently low wholesale prices.We expect pricing momentum, further retail growth, and high hydro storage to lead to another strong half in 2H26.

Meridian Energy Water, Water Everywhere—Dec 25 Op Stats

<ul><li>December 2025 was the third month in a row with renewable generation above 97%, highlighting the strong hydro position, but also the development of new generation in recent years.</li><li>Meridian Energy (MEL) broke hydro generation records, albeit, we do not expect that to translate into an earnings uplift as wholesale electricity prices were at near-record lows.</li><li>Heading into 2026 we are cautiously optimistic.</li></ul>

December 2025 was the third month in a row with renewable generation above 97%, highlighting the strong hydro position, but also the development of new generation in recent years.Meridian Energy (MEL) broke hydro generation records, albeit, we do not expect that to translate into an earnings uplift as wholesale electricity prices were at near-record lows.Heading into 2026 we are cautiously optimistic.

Power Points Energised For 2026—January 2026

<ul><li>Meridian Energy's (MEL) investor day was a mixture of the good and the bad.</li><li>The net effect—a modest -10cps (-1.6%) reduction in our target price.</li><li>The potential upside is material, but it is too early to ascribe any value to these opportunities.</li></ul>

Meridian Energy's (MEL) investor day was a mixture of the good and the bad.The net effect—a modest -10cps (-1.6%) reduction in our target price.The potential upside is material, but it is too early to ascribe any value to these opportunities.

Meridian Energy Capex Inflation Before Hydro Hope

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>July 2026 was a strong start to FY27 for the NZ electricity sector.</li><li>Very cold weather across the country saw electricity demand reach a new all-time peak of 7,463MW during the morning of 6 August.</li><li>Part of the reason record demand peaks have been met is +200MW of additional grid-scale battery capacity entering the market in the last 12 months, with another +100MW being commissioned, and +300MW under construction, in addition to numerous residential battery systems being installed.</li></ul>

July 2026 was a strong start to FY27 for the NZ electricity sector.Very cold weather across the country saw electricity demand reach a new all-time peak of 7,463MW during the morning of 6 August.Part of the reason record demand peaks have been met is +200MW of additional grid-scale battery capacity entering the market in the last 12 months, with another +100MW being commissioned, and +300MW under construction, in addition to numerous residential battery systems being installed.

Power Points: Battery Powered Shape Shifting—August 2026

New Zealand

Meridian Energy Ltd. operates as a state-owned electricity generator. The Company produces hydro-electric power and supplies electricity to residential, business, and rural customers. Meridian Energy provides services throughout New Zealand.

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Meridian Energy (MEL NZ)

Electricity Sector Swimming With the Current—1H26 Preview

The generator-retailer 1H26 reporting season is upon us. Meridian Energy (MEL) bore the brunt of the pain in 1H25, and we anticipate it will almost...

Forsyth Barr

Meridian Energy Water, Water Everywhere—Dec 25 Op Stats

MEL’s retail performance was a key driver, with strong customer growth allowing MEL to receive a greater benefit from record hydro generation,...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points Energised For 2026—January 2026

December 2025 was the third month in a row with renewable generation above 97%, highlighting the strong hydro position, but also the development of...

Forsyth Barr

Meridian Energy Capex Inflation Before Hydro Hope

Meridian Energy's (MEL) investor day was a mixture of the good and the bad. The net effect—a modest -10cps (-1.6%) reduction in our target price.

Forsyth Barr

Power Points: Battery Powered Shape Shifting—August 2026

July 2026 was a strong start to FY27 for the NZ electricity sector. Very cold weather across the country saw electricity demand reach a new...

Forsyth Barr

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