New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>New build was the key theme in November 2023. The month saw the completion of Mercury’s (MCY) Kaiwera Downs I wind farm, first power from Meridian Energy’s (MEL) Harapaki wind farm, and first power from Lodestone’s Kaitaia solar farm, New Zealand’s first grid scale solar farm.</li><li>The month also saw Contact Energy (CEN) announce substantial delays and cost increases at its Tauhara geothermal plant.</li><li>Looking to 2024, we expect 2.0TWh+ of generation to start construction, which is in addition to the ~3.4TWh under construction. </li></ul></div></div></div></div>

New build was the key theme in November 2023. The month saw the completion of Mercury’s (MCY) Kaiwera Downs I wind farm, first power from Meridian Energy’s (MEL) Harapaki wind farm, and first power from Lodestone’s Kaitaia solar farm, New Zealand’s first grid scale solar farm.The month also saw Contact Energy (CEN) announce substantial delays and cost increases at its Tauhara geothermal plant.Looking to 2024, we expect 2.0TWh+ of generation to start construction, which is in addition to the ~3.4TWh under construction. 

Power Points - Building Boom Set to Continue — Dec 2023

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gentrack-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2752:1" rel="noopener">Gentrack (GTK NZ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dorchester-pacific-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1854:1" rel="noopener">Turners Automotive (TRA NZ)</a> will be added to the S&amp;P/NZX 50 Index while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/synlait-milk-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16298:1" rel="noopener">Synlait Milk (SML NZ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-edge-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20261:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Edge (PEB NZ)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>There is a lot to trade on the stocks. The impact in terms of days of ADV appears high but historically there has been volume on implementation date.</li>
<li>The adds have jumped recently and there will be pre-positioning on the stocks. Not so much on the deletes.</li>
</ul>



Gentrack (GTK NZ) and Turners Automotive (TRA NZ) will be added to the S&amp;P/NZX 50 Index while Synlait Milk (SML NZ) and Pacific Edge (PEB NZ) will be deleted.
There is a lot to trade on the stocks. The impact in terms of days of ADV appears high but historically there has been volume on implementation date.
The adds have jumped recently and there will be pre-positioning on the stocks. Not so much on the deletes.


S&P/NZX 50 Index Rebalance: Two High Impact Changes Coming Up

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a> has postponed its scheme meeting to 4 December after it received a non-binding indicative proposal from Brookfield/EIG to amend the current scheme.</li>
<li>The Board admitted the current scheme was likely to be voted down if the meeting was held today. The alternative transaction structure will struggle to gain shareholder support.</li>
<li>If Brookfield/EIG walks, the share price will fall, at least in the short term. We think a reasonable deal break price is A$7.40, an 11% downside to the last close.</li>
</ul>



Origin Energy (ORG AU) has postponed its scheme meeting to 4 December after it received a non-binding indicative proposal from Brookfield/EIG to amend the current scheme.
The Board admitted the current scheme was likely to be voted down if the meeting was held today. The alternative transaction structure will struggle to gain shareholder support.
If Brookfield/EIG walks, the share price will fall, at least in the short term. We think a reasonable deal break price is A$7.40, an 11% downside to the last close.


Origin Energy (ORG AU): Brookfield/EIG’s Latest Effort Falls Flat

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a> scheme vote is on 23 November. Brookfield/EIG’s best and final offer is A$6.59 and US$1.86 per share, currently worth A$9.45.</li>
<li>With AusSuper reportedly increasing its stake past 17% on Friday, the scheme vote remains too close to call. Brookfield/EIG will need a large YES vote turnout for a successful vote.</li>
<li>If the scheme is voted down, there are mainly three Plan Bs – Brookfield/EIG’s alternate transaction structure, Board-initiated strategic review or maintaining the status quo.</li>
</ul>


The Origin Energy (ORG AU) scheme vote is on 23 November. Brookfield/EIG’s best and final offer is A$6.59 and US$1.86 per share, currently worth A$9.45.
With AusSuper reportedly increasing its stake past 17% on Friday, the scheme vote remains too close to call. Brookfield/EIG will need a large YES vote turnout for a successful vote.
If the scheme is voted down, there are mainly three Plan Bs – Brookfield/EIG’s alternate transaction structure, Board-initiated strategic review or maintaining the status quo.


Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Meridian Energy's (MEL) 1Q24 is best described as solid, with continued strong retail margins partially offset by rising opex costs that on an annualised basis are tracking above MEL's guidance range.</li><li>The news MEL is investing in NZ Windfarms (NWF) is a good outcome for NWF shareholders, but does not move the dial for MEL and only adds to growing overbuild concerns.</li><li>MEL remains expensive. UNDERPERFORM.</li></ul>

Meridian Energy's (MEL) 1Q24 is best described as solid, with continued strong retail margins partially offset by rising opex costs that on an annualised basis are tracking above MEL's guidance range.The news MEL is investing in NZ Windfarms (NWF) is a good outcome for NWF shareholders, but does not move the dial for MEL and only adds to growing overbuild concerns.MEL remains expensive. UNDERPERFORM.

Meridian Energy - Margins Beating Costs—1Q24 Op Stats

New Zealand

Meridian Energy Ltd. operates as a state-owned electricity generator. The Company produces hydro-electric power and supplies electricity to residential, business, and rural customers. Meridian Energy provides services throughout New Zealand.

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Meridian Energy (MEL NZ)

Power Points - Building Boom Set to Continue — Dec 2023

Looking to 2024, we expect 2.0TWh+ of generation to start construction, which is in addition to the ~3.4TWh under construction.

Forsyth Barr

S&P/NZX 50 Index Rebalance: Two High Impact Changes Coming Up

As expected, Gentrack and Turners Auto will replace Synlait Milk and Pacific Edge in the NZX50 Index. The adds have jumped recently and there...

Brian Freitas

Origin Energy (ORG AU): Brookfield/EIG’s Latest Effort Falls Flat

The alternative transaction structure will struggle to gain support. We think a reasonable deal break price is A$7.40, an 11% downside to the last...

Arun George

Origin Energy (ORG AU): State of Play

With AusSuper increasing its stake on Friday, the scheme vote remains too close to call. If the scheme fails, there are mainly three Plan Bs, which...

Arun George

Meridian Energy - Margins Beating Costs—1Q24 Op Stats

Meridian Energy's (MEL) 1Q24 is best described as solid, with continued strong retail margins partially offset by rising opex costs that on...

Forsyth Barr

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