Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two changes for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and seven changes for ASX 200. Separately we see 8 ADDs and 6 DELs for ASX 300.</li>
<li>The Sigma Healthcare - Chemist Warehouse merger will be completed soon and there will be major inflows for Sigma Healthcare due to float percentage/share count upgrades.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two changes for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and seven changes for ASX 200. Separately we see 8 ADDs and 6 DELs for ASX 300.
The Sigma Healthcare - Chemist Warehouse merger will be completed soon and there will be major inflows for Sigma Healthcare due to float percentage/share count upgrades.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 25: LONGs up ~10% Vs SHORTs in a Month; More to Come

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mesoblast-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:769:1" rel="noopener">Mesoblast Ltd (MSB AU)</a> got FDA approval for Ryoncil for steroid-refractory acute graft versus host disease (SR-aGvHD) in pediatric patients 2 months of age and older.</li>
<li>Following approval in pediatric patients, Mesoblast intends to commence a Phase 3 trial of Ryoncil in adults and adolescents, which has larger market size.</li>
<li>FDA approval enhances conviction on the commercial prospect of the other late-stage product candidates of the company, including Revascor for advanced chronic heart failure and rexlemestrocel-L for inflammatory pain indications.</li>
</ul>



Mesoblast Ltd (MSB AU) got FDA approval for Ryoncil for steroid-refractory acute graft versus host disease (SR-aGvHD) in pediatric patients 2 months of age and older.
Following approval in pediatric patients, Mesoblast intends to commence a Phase 3 trial of Ryoncil in adults and adolescents, which has larger market size.
FDA approval enhances conviction on the commercial prospect of the other late-stage product candidates of the company, including Revascor for advanced chronic heart failure and rexlemestrocel-L for inflammatory pain indications.


Mesoblast (MSB AU): What Lies Ahead After FDA Approval

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Nearing the end of the review period, there could be 36 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in March.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and S&amp;P/ASX 300.</li>
<li>Completion of the merger with Chemist Warehouse in February will set off huge passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a> over the February to June period.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the end of the review period, there could be 36 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in March.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and S&amp;P/ASX 300.
Completion of the merger with Chemist Warehouse in February will set off huge passive buying in Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) over the February to June period.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Change; Could Be More with Sigma/CWG Merger

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two changes for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and seven changes for ASX 200. Separately we see 10 ADDs and 8 DELs for ASX 300.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a> is likely to experience major index inflows in March 2025 if the merger completes as planned.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two changes for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and seven changes for ASX 200. Separately we see 10 ADDs and 8 DELs for ASX 300.

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) is likely to experience major index inflows in March 2025 if the merger completes as planned.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 25: Several Changes Likely; Major Inflows for Sigma Healthcare

Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/clinuvel-pharmaceuticals-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17714:1" rel="noopener">Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU)</a> released positive update from its CUV151 study, which was evaluating the DNA-repair capacity of afamelanotide on skin of healthy volunteers exposed to UV radiation.</li>
<li>Riding on high trajectory of lead therapy, Scenesse, thanks to the prescriber network growth, treatment demand, and number of prescriptions, Clinuvel has been consistently reporting profitable revenue growth.</li>
<li>Greater patient outreach to be facilitated by more specialty centers able to administer Scenesse in the U.S., expanding geographic footprint, and future label expansions are future growth engines.</li>
</ul>



Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU) released positive update from its CUV151 study, which was evaluating the DNA-repair capacity of afamelanotide on skin of healthy volunteers exposed to UV radiation.
Riding on high trajectory of lead therapy, Scenesse, thanks to the prescriber network growth, treatment demand, and number of prescriptions, Clinuvel has been consistently reporting profitable revenue growth.
Greater patient outreach to be facilitated by more specialty centers able to administer Scenesse in the U.S., expanding geographic footprint, and future label expansions are future growth engines.


Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU): Positive Clinical Trial Result; Base Business Going Strong

Australia

Mesoblast Limited provides biomedical services. The Company develops drugs for cardiovascular diseases, oncology, hematology, and spine orthopedic disorders treatment. Mesoblast conducts its business worldwide.

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Mesoblast Ltd (MSB AU)

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 25: LONGs up ~10% Vs SHORTs in a Month; More to Come

There are multiple names with significant impact (10x ADV or more) expected during the March 2025 rebalance. Expected ADDs could continue to...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Mesoblast (MSB AU): What Lies Ahead After FDA Approval

Mesoblast receives FDA approval for Ryoncil in pediatric patients with acute graft versus host disease. FDA approval enhances conviction on the...

Tina Banerjee

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Change; Could Be More with Sigma/CWG Merger

There could be 36 changes for the ASX indices in March. There is big flow and impact. The Sigma merger with CWG will result in over A$2bn of...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 25: Several Changes Likely; Major Inflows for Sigma Healthcare

We expect there to be a total of 650mn shares to buy from the ASX family during the March 2025 index rebal event. This is roughly US$1.1bn in flow...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU): Positive Clinical Trial Result; Base Business Going Strong

Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals reported positive results from CUV151 study on DNA-repair capacity of afamelanotide. Expanding patient reach of Scenesse...

Tina Banerjee

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 25: LONGs up ~10% Vs SHORTs in a Month; More to Come

There are multiple names with significant impact (10x ADV or more) expected during the March 2025 rebalance. Expected ADDs could continue to...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Mesoblast (MSB AU): What Lies Ahead After FDA Approval

​Mesoblast receives FDA approval for Ryoncil in pediatric patients with acute graft versus host disease. FDA approval enhances conviction on the...

Tina Banerjee

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Change; Could Be More with Sigma/CWG Merger

There could be 36 changes for the ASX indices in March. There is big flow and impact. The Sigma merger with CWG will result in over A$2bn of...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 25: Several Changes Likely; Major Inflows for Sigma Healthcare

We expect there to be a total of 650mn shares to buy from the ASX family during the March 2025 index rebal event. This is roughly US$1.1bn in flow...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU): Positive Clinical Trial Result; Base Business Going Strong

​Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals reported positive results from CUV151 study on DNA-repair capacity of afamelanotide. Expanding patient reach of Scenesse...

Tina Banerjee

Mesoblast receives FDA approval for Ryoncil in pediatric patients with acute graft versus host disease. FDA approval enhances conviction on the...

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Change; Could Be More with Sigma/CWG Merger

Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals reported positive results from CUV151 study on DNA-repair capacity of afamelanotide. Expanding patient reach of Scenesse...