AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.</li>
<li>While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the pricing boom may be peaking.</li>
<li>Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.</li>
</ul>


Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.
While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the pricing boom may be peaking.
Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.


Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

Podcast on In-depth Business Talks, Speedwell Research

The Synopsis

Podcast on In-depth Business Talks

Speedwell Research

Speedwell Research spends hundreds of hours researching public businesses each month and in "The Synopsis" they share their key learnings. Most business podcasts are superficial and assume their listeners are unsophisticated. In contrast, The Synopsis trusts listeners are interested in learning about complex, industry-specific issues, so long as they are explained clearly. We cover businesses from inception to current day, coupling business analysis and an investors lens. Start listening today to become a better analyst and investor.

<ul><li>US Government shutdown delays September jobs report, impacting Fed policy decisions</li><li>Markets largely unfazed by shutdown, focusing on structural drivers such as interest rates and earnings forecast</li><li>OpenAI's ChatGPT integration with Shopify and Etsy may signal a shift in marketplace model, impacting revenue and customer touchpoints</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

US Government shutdown delays September jobs report, impacting Fed policy decisionsMarkets largely unfazed by shutdown, focusing on structural drivers such as interest rates and earnings forecastOpenAI's ChatGPT integration with Shopify and Etsy may signal a shift in marketplace model, impacting revenue and customer touchpointsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Briefing. Why AI Could Mean the End of the Marketplace Model, Meta's Paranoid "Vibe", Coupang's D...

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>OpenAI, Samsung &amp; SK Hynix Lock In Memory Pact — Taiwan Next Stop</li>
<li>MediaTek’s Major ASIC Ambitions Face Delays from Some Key Clients</li>
<li>TSMC: New Signals Underscore N2’s Rise as a Blockbuster Node </li>
</ul>


OpenAI, Samsung &amp; SK Hynix Lock In Memory Pact — Taiwan Next Stop
MediaTek’s Major ASIC Ambitions Face Delays from Some Key Clients
TSMC: New Signals Underscore N2’s Rise as a Blockbuster Node 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: OpenAI to Consume Nearly Half of Global DRAM; Why TSMC 2nm Will Be A Blockbuster

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Victory Giant Technology -A / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/victory-giant-technology-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25395:1" rel="noopener">Victory Giant Technology -A (300476 CH)</a> (VG) aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>VG is one of the global leaders in advanced printed circuit boards (PCB) products for AI and high-performance computing.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.</li>
</ul>



Victory Giant Technology -A (300476 CH) (VG) aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
VG is one of the global leaders in advanced printed circuit boards (PCB) products for AI and high-performance computing.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.


Victory Giant A/H Listing - Riding the AI Wave

<ul><li>The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4 to 4.25%, citing a shift in risk and uncertainty in the economy.</li><li>Tensions within the Fed committee highlight divisions on future rate cuts, with projections ranging from 2.9% to 4.4% by year end.</li><li>Stagflation concerns have emerged as inflation rises, complicating the Fed's ability to support the job market with aggressive rate cuts.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4 to 4.25%, citing a shift in risk and uncertainty in the economy.Tensions within the Fed committee highlight divisions on future rate cuts, with projections ranging from 2.9% to 4.4% by year end.Stagflation concerns have emerged as inflation rises, complicating the Fed's ability to support the job market with aggressive rate cuts.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Briefing. Nvidia Invests in Intel, Factset at 4 Year Lows, Fed Cuts Rates, Meta Neural Band

United States

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

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Meta (META US)

Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Mint Finance

Briefing. Why AI Could Mean the End of the Marketplace Model, Meta's Paranoid "Vibe", Coupang's D...

The US Government shutdown delays September jobs report, but markets climb with limited economic consequences, as investors focus on interest...

The Synopsis

Taiwan Tech Weekly: OpenAI to Consume Nearly Half of Global DRAM; Why TSMC 2nm Will Be A Blockbuster

OpenAI, Samsung, and SK Hynix are forming alliances in the memory industry, while MediaTek faces delays in its ASIC ambitions and TSMC's N2 node is...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Victory Giant A/H Listing - Riding the AI Wave

Victory Giant Technology -A (300476 CH) (VG) aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing. In this note, we look at the company's past...

Sumeet Singh

Briefing. Nvidia Invests in Intel, Factset at 4 Year Lows, Fed Cuts Rates, Meta Neural Band

The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, Powell emphasizes risk management, concerns of stagflation arise, Trump administration pushes for...

The Synopsis

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

​Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Mint Finance

Briefing. Why AI Could Mean the End of the Marketplace Model, Meta's Paranoid "Vibe", Coupang's D...

The US Government shutdown delays September jobs report, but markets climb with limited economic consequences, as investors focus on interest...

The Synopsis

Taiwan Tech Weekly: OpenAI to Consume Nearly Half of Global DRAM; Why TSMC 2nm Will Be A Blockbuster

OpenAI, Samsung, and SK Hynix are forming alliances in the memory industry, while MediaTek faces delays in its ASIC ambitions and TSMC's N2 node is...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Victory Giant A/H Listing - Riding the AI Wave

Victory Giant Technology -A (300476 CH) (VG) aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing. In this note, we look at the company's past...

Sumeet Singh

Briefing. Nvidia Invests in Intel, Factset at 4 Year Lows, Fed Cuts Rates, Meta Neural Band

The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, Powell emphasizes risk management, concerns of stagflation arise, Trump administration pushes for...

The Synopsis

Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...