TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>The headline for Amazon’s quarter was that its revenue growth decelerated 1700bps to 24% YoY , and appears set to decelerate another 1000bps in 3Q. Tough comps people. Tough comps.</p><p>The company has to invest more and more money to keep up with demand…historically, these are the times you invest in Amazon, when its going through capacity buildouts…its just never happened before that Amazon has had ongoing investment cycles for multiple years. In the end…the absolute size and profitability of the business will be larger. It might just take 2-3 quarters to prove out.</p><p>In the meantime, its higher margin AWS and Advertising businesses are ACCELERATING. AWS on a $59B runrate, growing 37% (500bps acceleration QoQ), Advertising on a $32B runrate, growing 87% (1400bps acceleration). We value these two businesses at ~2T….which is 30% ahead of the current market cap. We think retail is also worth ~$1T, which is what get us to our $3T valuation, which equates to $6,000 a share. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

The headline for Amazon’s quarter was that its revenue growth decelerated 1700bps to 24% YoY , and appears set to decelerate another 1000bps in 3Q. Tough comps people. Tough comps.The company has to invest more and more money to keep up with demand…historically, these are the times you invest in Amazon, when its going through capacity buildouts…its just never happened before that Amazon has had ongoing investment cycles for multiple years. In the end…the absolute size and profitability of the business will be larger. It might just take 2-3 quarters to prove out.In the meantime, its higher margin AWS and Advertising businesses are ACCELERATING. AWS on a $59B runrate, growing 37% (500bps acceleration QoQ), Advertising on a $32B runrate, growing 87% (1400bps acceleration). We value these two businesses at ~2T….which is 30% ahead of the current market cap. We think retail is also worth ~$1T, which is what get us to our $3T valuation, which equates to $6,000 a share. Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Amazon 2Q21: Pay Attention to AWS and Advertising

<p>Just a monster quarter. The type Facebook used to print in 2015. We've been pushing Snap as a core long since the beginning of the pandemic. We continue to push Snap as a core long...and are probably even more bullish today then we were a year ago. Facebook's market cap is 10x Snap's. We would bet that gap closes rapidly.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

Just a monster quarter. The type Facebook used to print in 2015. We've been pushing Snap as a core long since the beginning of the pandemic. We continue to push Snap as a core long...and are probably even more bullish today then we were a year ago. Facebook's market cap is 10x Snap's. We would bet that gap closes rapidly.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Latest News from the World’s Leading Innovators

Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Headline Developments: We can now modify DNA inside of a human body (in vivo), thanks to some groundbreaking work announced this week by Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) which saw the company’s share price surge 55%.  What this means is that we can now send precision therapeutics (based on CRISPR technology) to “seek and destroy” problematic genes.</p>

Headline Developments: We can now modify DNA inside of a human body (in vivo), thanks to some groundbreaking work announced this week by Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) which saw the company’s share price surge 55%.  What this means is that we can now send precision therapeutics (based on CRISPR technology) to “seek and destroy” problematic genes.

<p>Headline Developments Nassim Taleb, the celebrated Black Swan author and mathematician, has published a paper trashing bitcoin.  In the paper (excerpts below), Taleb claims the theoretical value of bitcoin is zero, saying it is not a currency, can be neither a short or long term store of value, cannot operate as a reliable inflation hedge and, “worst of all”, does not constitute “not even remotely” a tail protection vehicle for catastrophic episodes (i.</p>

Headline Developments Nassim Taleb, the celebrated Black Swan author and mathematician, has published a paper trashing bitcoin.  In the paper (excerpts below), Taleb claims the theoretical value of bitcoin is zero, saying it is not a currency, can be neither a short or long term store of value, cannot operate as a reliable inflation hedge and, “worst of all”, does not constitute “not even remotely” a tail protection vehicle for catastrophic episodes (i.

CEO, Rock and Turner

James Emanuel

Rock and Turner

investment advisory company Rock and Turner.

Investment Advisory Company

<ul>
<li>Visa and Mastercard, undoubtedly both great companies but are they good investments right now?</li>
<li>I analyse both Visa and Mastercard in detail and compare their businesses, their threats and opportunities, and of course their relative valuations.</li>
<li>In the course of this analysis, I identified one stock that looks like a far better bet than either Visa or Mastercard if you are seeking alpha for your portfolio.</li>
<li>In fact, Mastercard itself has just invested $100m in this other company due to its growth potential. You can too!</li>
<li>By the end of this article, you will fully understand all three of these businesses and be well positioned to make an informed investment decision for yourself.</li>
</ul>


Visa and Mastercard, undoubtedly both great companies but are they good investments right now?
I analyse both Visa and Mastercard in detail and compare their businesses, their threats and opportunities, and of course their relative valuations.
In the course of this analysis, I identified one stock that looks like a far better bet than either Visa or Mastercard if you are seeking alpha for your portfolio.
In fact, Mastercard itself has just invested $100m in this other company due to its growth potential. You can too!
By the end of this article, you will fully understand all three of these businesses and be well positioned to make an informed investment decision for yourself.


Airtel Africa Is The Solution For Investors Worried About Visa And Mastercard Valuations

United States

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

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Meta Platforms (Facebook) (META US)

Amazon 2Q21: Pay Attention to AWS and Advertising

Retail decelerated ALOT. In the meantime, its higher margin AWS and Advertising businesses are ACCELERATING. We value these two businesses at...

Aaron Gabin

Snap: Forget Twitter, Look Out Facebook

We continue to push Snap as a core long...and are probably even more bullish today then we were a year ago. Facebook's market cap is 10x Snap's. We...

Aaron Gabin

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #38

Headline Developments: We can now modify DNA inside of a human body (in vivo), thanks to some groundbreaking work announced this week

Granite Bay Capital

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #37

Nassim Taleb, the celebrated Black Swan author and mathematician, has published a paper trashing bitcoin. In the paper, Taleb claims the...

Granite Bay Capital

Airtel Africa Is The Solution For Investors Worried About Visa And Mastercard Valuations

Visa and Mastercard, undoubtedly both great companies but are they good investments right now? I analyse both Visa and Mastercard in detail.

James Emanuel

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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