Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Expectations since late-September remain unchanged; if $SPX is above 4165-4200/200-day MA, we're bullish, as most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish trend in SPX.</li>
<li>As discussed last week (10/11/23), we have growing confidence that lows are likely in on the SPX, which made a low at 4216 (with 4200 hit exactly overnight 10/4/23).</li>
<li>We also discussed Russell 2000 breadth bottoming last week, and this has continued with bullish breadth divergences on Russell 2000 % of stocks above their 50- and 200-day MAs</li>
</ul>


Expectations since late-September remain unchanged; if $SPX is above 4165-4200/200-day MA, we're bullish, as most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish trend in SPX.
As discussed last week (10/11/23), we have growing confidence that lows are likely in on the SPX, which made a low at 4216 (with 4200 hit exactly overnight 10/4/23).
We also discussed Russell 2000 breadth bottoming last week, and this has continued with bullish breadth divergences on Russell 2000 % of stocks above their 50- and 200-day MAs


Russell 2000 With Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buys in Insurance and Health Care Distributors

<ul>
<li>We've expected to see 4300-4325 act as major support on SPX, while also expecting consolidation between 4300-4325 support and 4600 resistance until the end of September, and possibly longer.</li>
<li>Still possible this 4300-4325 support holds, but odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields </li>
<li>Also adding to concerns: 1+ year uptrend violations on $IWO/$IWP, and breakdowns below 34,280 on the Dow, $180 on IWM, $472 on SOXX, $81 on ITB, and $104-$105 on XLI</li>
</ul>


We've expected to see 4300-4325 act as major support on SPX, while also expecting consolidation between 4300-4325 support and 4600 resistance until the end of September, and possibly longer.
Still possible this 4300-4325 support holds, but odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields 
Also adding to concerns: 1+ year uptrend violations on $IWO/$IWP, and breakdowns below 34,280 on the Dow, $180 on IWM, $472 on SOXX, $81 on ITB, and $104-$105 on XLI


U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>MetLife delivered mixed results for the previous quarter, with revenues above analyst expectations but below-par earnings.</li><li>MetLife reported adjusted earnings of $1.5 billion or $1.94 per share, showcasing underlying momentum in its core businesses.</li><li>MetLife's prudent investment portfolio management and risk management were evident in the well-controlled underwriting results and effective expense management.</li></ul>

MetLife delivered mixed results for the previous quarter, with revenues above analyst expectations but below-par earnings.MetLife reported adjusted earnings of $1.5 billion or $1.94 per share, showcasing underlying momentum in its core businesses.MetLife's prudent investment portfolio management and risk management were evident in the well-controlled underwriting results and effective expense management.

MetLife Inc.: An Inside Look at Underwriting Mastery and Effective Expense Control! - Major Drivers

<ul><li>MetLife delivered a disappointing set of results as the company was unable to meet the revenue as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.</li><li>The company achieved substantial revenue growth in the majority of its main businesses and markets, including Group Benefits, Asia, and Latin America.</li><li>Furthermore, adjusted earnings for Retirement and Income Solutions was $400 million, a decrease from the previous year due to reduced variable investment income.</li></ul>

MetLife delivered a disappointing set of results as the company was unable to meet the revenue as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.The company achieved substantial revenue growth in the majority of its main businesses and markets, including Group Benefits, Asia, and Latin America.Furthermore, adjusted earnings for Retirement and Income Solutions was $400 million, a decrease from the previous year due to reduced variable investment income.

MetLife Inc.: Achieving Favorable Underwriting Results with Strict Price Discipline! – Key Drivers

<ul><li>This is our first report on insurance behemoth, MetLife.</li><li>The company’s business has been negatively impacted by various macroeconomic trends such as the equity market falling, the interest rate rise, and the rising probability of a recession.</li><li>However, MetLife continued to execute its Next Horizon Strategy which helps show some resilience in uncertainty.</li></ul>

This is our first report on insurance behemoth, MetLife.The company’s business has been negatively impacted by various macroeconomic trends such as the equity market falling, the interest rate rise, and the rising probability of a recession.However, MetLife continued to execute its Next Horizon Strategy which helps show some resilience in uncertainty.

MetLife: Initiation of Coverage – Financial Forecasts

United States

MetLife, Inc. provides individual insurance, employee benefits and financial services with operations throughout the United States and the regions of Latin America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. The Company's products include life insurance, annuities, automobile and homeowners insurance, retail banking and other financial services to individuals as well as group insurance.

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Metlife Inc (MET US)

Russell 2000 With Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buys in Insurance and Health Care Distributors

Our view since late Sept remains unchanged: if $SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish, as most signs point to this being a...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

Odds of a deeper pullback to $SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar $DXY and Treasury yields...

Vermilion Research

MetLife Inc.: An Inside Look at Underwriting Mastery and Effective Expense Control! - Major Drivers

MetLife delivered mixed results for the previous quarter, with revenues above analyst expectations but below-par earnings. MetLife reported...

Baptista Research

MetLife Inc.: Achieving Favorable Underwriting Results with Strict Price Discipline! – Key Drivers

MetLife delivered a disappointing set of results as the company was unable to meet the revenue as well as the earnings expectations of Wall...

Baptista Research

MetLife: Initiation of Coverage – Financial Forecasts

This is our first report on insurance behemoth, MetLife. The company’s business has been negatively impacted by various macroeconomic trends such...

Baptista Research

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