IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>To no one's surprise, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a> scheme vote comfortably passed. The scheme remains conditional on FIRB approval and no material adverse change (which Cosette alleges).  </li>
<li>The Mayne/Cosette court case wades into uncharted territory as it brings many firsts, such as the first MAC-related dispute to be heard in Australian courts with a qualified MAC threshold.</li>
<li>While Western case law burdens the buyer with establishing a MAC breach, it is unclear whether Mayne will get a favourable ruling, as Cosette could have a case. Tread carefully. </li>
</ul>


To no one's surprise, the Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) scheme vote comfortably passed. The scheme remains conditional on FIRB approval and no material adverse change (which Cosette alleges).  
The Mayne/Cosette court case wades into uncharted territory as it brings many firsts, such as the first MAC-related dispute to be heard in Australian courts with a qualified MAC threshold.
While Western case law burdens the buyer with establishing a MAC breach, it is unclear whether Mayne will get a favourable ruling, as Cosette could have a case. Tread carefully. 


Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Entering Uncharted Territory as the Scheme Vote Passes

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
I have no clue. Given this is unchartered territory, in Australia, I don't believe anyone has a perfect handle on the situation</li>
<li>What do we know? The Second Court meeting has been pushed out to the 18th September from 20th June initially, to "enable the dispute with Cosette". </li>
<li>This date may be further delayed as a court hearing will commence on the 9th September to hear the validity of Cosette's termination notice.</li>
</ul>



I have no clue. Given this is unchartered territory, in Australia, I don't believe anyone has a perfect handle on the situation
What do we know? The Second Court meeting has been pushed out to the 18th September from 20th June initially, to "enable the dispute with Cosette". 
This date may be further delayed as a court hearing will commence on the 9th September to hear the validity of Cosette's termination notice.


Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): The Vote Gets Up. Now What?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a> disclosed that Cosette asserts that a material adverse change has occurred due to its trading performance, litigation and FDA untitled letter. </li>
<li>Cosette has not quantified the impact, and Mayne disputes the assertion. Mayne’s trading performance is likely the largest contributor to Cosette’s MAC-related claims. </li>
<li>Precedent schemes suggest a lower offer is the best-case scenario. An unwilling bidder looking for angles, contractually, to exit suggests the likely outcome is a scheme termination.</li>
</ul>



Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) disclosed that Cosette asserts that a material adverse change has occurred due to its trading performance, litigation and FDA untitled letter. 
Cosette has not quantified the impact, and Mayne disputes the assertion. Mayne’s trading performance is likely the largest contributor to Cosette’s MAC-related claims. 
Precedent schemes suggest a lower offer is the best-case scenario. An unwilling bidder looking for angles, contractually, to exit suggests the likely outcome is a scheme termination.


Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): A Case of Buyer’s Remorse

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arvida-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14485:1" rel="noopener">Arvida (ARV NZ)</a> IE considers Stonepeak’s NZ$1.70 offer fair and reasonable as it is within the NZ$1.63 to A$1.94 valuation range. </li>
<li>The transaction will require OIO approval, statutory supervisors' consent and shareholder approval. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metlifecare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19219:1" rel="noopener">Metlifecare Ltd (MET NZ)</a> precedent suggests that the OIO and statutory supervisor should be forthcoming.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive and recent changes in substantial shareholders are benign. At the last close and for the 13 November payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.0%/15.2%. </li>
</ul>


The Arvida (ARV NZ) IE considers Stonepeak’s NZ$1.70 offer fair and reasonable as it is within the NZ$1.63 to A$1.94 valuation range. 
The transaction will require OIO approval, statutory supervisors' consent and shareholder approval. The Metlifecare Ltd (MET NZ) precedent suggests that the OIO and statutory supervisor should be forthcoming.
The offer is attractive and recent changes in substantial shareholders are benign. At the last close and for the 13 November payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.0%/15.2%. 


Arvida Group (ARV NZ): Scheme Vote on 25 September

<ul>
<li>Back in April 2022, Australia's largest private hospital operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a> announced an unsolicited, non-binding Offer from KKR at A$88.00/share. Arguably, KKR dodged a bullet.</li>
<li>RHC's share price took another leg down last week after RHC announced weaker-than-expected FY24 earnings; plus a write-down of its European/UK ops. RHC is now ~50% adrift of KKR's NBIO.</li>
<li>Not altogether surprisingly, various media sources are reporting private equity outfits are (again) running a diagnostic check on RHC. </li>
</ul>


Back in April 2022, Australia's largest private hospital operator Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU) announced an unsolicited, non-binding Offer from KKR at A$88.00/share. Arguably, KKR dodged a bullet.
RHC's share price took another leg down last week after RHC announced weaker-than-expected FY24 earnings; plus a write-down of its European/UK ops. RHC is now ~50% adrift of KKR's NBIO.
Not altogether surprisingly, various media sources are reporting private equity outfits are (again) running a diagnostic check on RHC. 


Private Equity Examining Ramsay Health (RMC AU). Again.

New Zealand

Metlifecare Limited provides private health care services through its ownership, operation and management of retirement villages, nursing homes and geriatric hospitals along with the marketing of services allied to these facilities throughout New Zealand.

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Metlifecare Ltd (MET NZ)

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Entering Uncharted Territory as the Scheme Vote Passes

While Western case law burdens the buyer with establishing a MAC breach, the Mayne/Cosette court case wades into uncharted territory, bringing many...

Arun George

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): The Vote Gets Up. Now What?

The possibility of an agreed price reduction has reduced; but arguably, so has the MAC threat. Only the facts presented during the court hearing...

David Blennerhassett

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): A Case of Buyer’s Remorse

Precedent schemes suggest a lower offer is the best-case scenario. An unwilling bidder looking for angles, contractually, to exit suggests the...

Arun George

Arvida Group (ARV NZ): Scheme Vote on 25 September

The offer is attractive and recent changes in substantial shareholders are benign. At the last close and for the 13 November payment, the gross...

Arun George

Private Equity Examining Ramsay Health (RMC AU). Again.

Ramsay's share price is pretty beaten up. FY24 earnings are expected to be roughly in line with FY22 figures. And KKR was still willing to pay...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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