Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<p>Decent 2021 interims and continual buybacks have not curbed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a>'s recent underperformance, with the market assigning US$300mn <em>less</em> for the stub ops than before.</p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on First Pac are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...



Decent 2021 interims and continual buybacks have not curbed First Pacific Co (142 HK)'s recent underperformance, with the market assigning US$300mn less for the stub ops than before.



Preceding my comments on First Pac are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


StubWorld: First Pac (142 HK)'s Correction After Year-Long Contraction

Pan-Asia Equity Bottom-up, Wickhams Hill

Lloyd Moffatt

Pan-Asia Equity Bottom-up

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We uncover a stake in post-merger Tokopedia-GoJek held by the Japanese e-commerce company Beenos (3328 JP) that, at the slated US$40bn IPO valuation for the Southeast Asian unicorn, would account for more than 80% of the US$270m enterprise value.</li><li>MM2 Asia (MM2 SP) has signed an SPA to dispose of their cinema business as part of an ongoing restructuring of the media and entertainment group</li><li>Metro Pacific (MPI PM) accelerated repurchases of a further 224.8m shares during the past week taking the 30-day tally to 1.71% shares out.</li></ul>

We uncover a stake in post-merger Tokopedia-GoJek held by the Japanese e-commerce company Beenos (3328 JP) that, at the slated US$40bn IPO valuation for the Southeast Asian unicorn, would account for more than 80% of the US$270m enterprise value.MM2 Asia (MM2 SP) has signed an SPA to dispose of their cinema business as part of an ongoing restructuring of the media and entertainment groupMetro Pacific (MPI PM) accelerated repurchases of a further 224.8m shares during the past week taking the 30-day tally to 1.71% shares out.

Wickhams Hill Research | Under-The-Radar Issue 6

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<li>The new third Philippine telco Ditto Telecom (DITO PM) is added to our list of fallen angels, down more than 60% from its March high. At just 10% of the market cap of incumbents there clearly some upside to getting this right.</li>
<li>Staying in the Phils, for a sending week running we’ve caught the start of a major buyback with Metro Pacific (MPI PM) commencing the second tranche of a program to repurchase 5% of outstanding shares</li>
<li>We noticed increased activity across the entire MNC Group of companies (MNC Investama - BHIT IJ) and discovered there's quite a bit of action there to cover.</li>
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The new third Philippine telco Ditto Telecom (DITO PM) is added to our list of fallen angels, down more than 60% from its March high. At just 10% of the market cap of incumbents there clearly some upside to getting this right.
Staying in the Phils, for a sending week running we’ve caught the start of a major buyback with Metro Pacific (MPI PM) commencing the second tranche of a program to repurchase 5% of outstanding shares
We noticed increased activity across the entire MNC Group of companies (MNC Investama - BHIT IJ) and discovered there's quite a bit of action there to cover.


Wickhams Hill Research | Under-The-Radar Issue 3

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<p>The Philippines has been of the worst-hit countries in South-East Asia by COVID-19, given its strict and lengthy lockdown. Its GDP growth declined by -16.5% in 2Q2020 versus an average growth rate of +6.4% between 2010 to 2019. Now the country is coming out of lockdown, we are seeing the first signs of recovery and look for a way to play this resurgence story. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gt-capital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:215:1" rel="noopener">GT Capital Holdings (GTCAP PM)</a> is an interesting proxy for post-COVID-19 recovery in the Philippines, as the distributor for Toyota vehicles in the country. It also has a controlling stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metropolitan-bank-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:326:1" rel="noopener">Metropolitan Bank &amp; Trust (MBT PM)</a>, one of the nation's best quality banks. </p>
<p>The most recent car sales numbers from the Philippines showed a slowing decline in auto sales in September of -22% versus a -44% decline YoY for 9M2020. Passenger cars saw a lesser decline of -12% YoY in September but saw a sharp rebound MoM of +54% in that month.</p>
<p>Subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metropolitan-bank-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:326:1" rel="noopener">Metropolitan Bank &amp; Trust (MBT PM)</a> continues to shift its customers to digital channels, with 79% of total transactions in 2Q2020 online versus 69% a year ago, and continues to see strong underlying growth in PPOP. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gt-capital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:215:1" rel="noopener">GT Capital Holdings (GTCAP PM)</a> property arm Federal Land has been increasingly successfully marketing properties by digital means, whilst AXA Philippines is already performing well with most of its policies now being sold through digital channels. </p>
<p>Its infrastructure exposure through <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-pacific-investments-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1054:1" rel="noopener">Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM)</a> is also seeing a much-improved performance, with a pick up in toll-road traffic and electricity consumption. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gt-capital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:215:1" rel="noopener">GT Capital Holdings (GTCAP PM)</a> trades on 7.4x FY21E PER versus a 3-year average of 11.7x forward PER, and 0.5x FY2020 PBV versus a 3-year average of 1.1x PBV.  Better numbers should lead to a re-rating of the company back toward historical levels. </p>

The Philippines has been of the worst-hit countries in South-East Asia by COVID-19, given its strict and lengthy lockdown. Its GDP growth declined by -16.5% in 2Q2020 versus an average growth rate of +6.4% between 2010 to 2019. Now the country is coming out of lockdown, we are seeing the first signs of recovery and look for a way to play this resurgence story. 
GT Capital Holdings (GTCAP PM) is an interesting proxy for post-COVID-19 recovery in the Philippines, as the distributor for Toyota vehicles in the country. It also has a controlling stake in Metropolitan Bank &amp; Trust (MBT PM), one of the nation's best quality banks. 
The most recent car sales numbers from the Philippines showed a slowing decline in auto sales in September of -22% versus a -44% decline YoY for 9M2020. Passenger cars saw a lesser decline of -12% YoY in September but saw a sharp rebound MoM of +54% in that month.
Subsidiary Metropolitan Bank &amp; Trust (MBT PM) continues to shift its customers to digital channels, with 79% of total transactions in 2Q2020 online versus 69% a year ago, and continues to see strong underlying growth in PPOP. 
GT Capital Holdings (GTCAP PM) property arm Federal Land has been increasingly successfully marketing properties by digital means, whilst AXA Philippines is already performing well with most of its policies now being sold through digital channels. 
Its infrastructure exposure through Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM) is also seeing a much-improved performance, with a pick up in toll-road traffic and electricity consumption. 
GT Capital Holdings (GTCAP PM) trades on 7.4x FY21E PER versus a 3-year average of 11.7x forward PER, and 0.5x FY2020 PBV versus a 3-year average of 1.1x PBV.  Better numbers should lead to a re-rating of the company back toward historical levels. 

GT Capital Holdings (GTCAP PM) - A Philippines Recovery Prospect

Melco International Development / Event-Driven

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<p>This week in <strong>StubWorld</strong> ...</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International Development (200 HK)</a>'s 54.88% subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-crown-entertainme-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:810:1" rel="noopener">Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US)</a> <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0206/2020020601305.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it will no longer acquire an additional 9.99% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a>. But the reasons behind the decision go beyond that stated.</p>
<p>Having recently acquired a 25% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/manila-water-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22789:1" rel="noopener">Manila Water Co (MWC PM)</a>, Enrique Razon will now take control of the water utility from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ayala-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1474:1" rel="noopener">Ayala Corporation (AC PM)</a>.</p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Melco and Ayala are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...


Melco International Development (200 HK)'s 54.88% subsidiary Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US) announced it will no longer acquire an additional 9.99% in Crown Resorts (CWN AU). But the reasons behind the decision go beyond that stated.
Having recently acquired a 25% in Manila Water Co (MWC PM), Enrique Razon will now take control of the water utility from Ayala Corporation (AC PM).


Preceding my comments on Melco and Ayala are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.




These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.




StubWorld: Melco Steps Back From Crown; Ayala Hands Over Control Of Manila Water

Philippines

Metro Pacific Investments Corporation (MPIC) is a Philippine-based investment and management company focused on infrastructure. It holds diverse assets in water utilities, toll roads, electricity distribution, hospital operations, light rail, and agribusiness. MPIC was incorporated in the Philippines and registered with the SEC on March 20, 2006, and is headquartered in Pasig City, Philippines.

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Metro Pacific Investments (MPI PM)

StubWorld: First Pac (142 HK)'s Correction After Year-Long Contraction

in the short term, absent a major catalyst, I'd like to see the share price settle a bit. Longer-term, this appears a decent entry point, with a...

David Blennerhassett

Wickhams Hill Research | Under-The-Radar Issue 6

We uncover a stake in post-merger Tokopedia-GoJek held by the Japanese e-commerce company Beenos (3328 JP) that at the slated...

Lloyd Moffatt

Wickhams Hill Research | Under-The-Radar Issue 3

The new third Philippine telco Ditto Telecom (DITO PM) is added to our list of fallen angels, down more than 60% from its March high.

Lloyd Moffatt

GT Capital Holdings (GTCAP PM) - A Philippines Recovery Prospect

GT Capital provides high-quality, yet high beta exposure to the Philippines recovery though banking, autos, utilities, and property

Angus Mackintosh

StubWorld: Melco Steps Back From Crown; Ayala Hands Over Control Of Manila Water

This week in StubWorld ... Melco International Development (200 HK)'s 54.88% subsidiary Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO US) announced it...

David Blennerhassett

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