Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>FY2025 GGR reached a record MOP247.4bn (+9.1% YoY), yet Macau casinos trade at just ~6.8x FY2027E EV/EBITDA, well below pre-COVID levels. The recovery is real; the re-rating has not happened.</li>
<li>The cheapest share price is not the cheapest company. SJM is the sector's most expensive stock at 9.1x FY2027E EV/EBITDA, while MGM is among the cheapest at 4.6x.</li>
<li>Bullish on MGM China (top pick), Melco, Sands China and Galaxy. Neutral on Wynn Macau and SJM, where balance-sheet constraints limit upside potential.</li>
</ul>


FY2025 GGR reached a record MOP247.4bn (+9.1% YoY), yet Macau casinos trade at just ~6.8x FY2027E EV/EBITDA, well below pre-COVID levels. The recovery is real; the re-rating has not happened.
The cheapest share price is not the cheapest company. SJM is the sector's most expensive stock at 9.1x FY2027E EV/EBITDA, while MGM is among the cheapest at 4.6x.
Bullish on MGM China (top pick), Melco, Sands China and Galaxy. Neutral on Wynn Macau and SJM, where balance-sheet constraints limit upside potential.


Macau Gaming Handbook 2026: One Market, Six Concessionaires, One Yardstick

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China has announced that it will significantly boost the share of domestic consumption in its next five years, while maintaining tech and manufacturing as top priorities.</li>
<li>The nation's banks will be instrumental in providing consumption financing to spur a virtual growth driver for the economy.  Easing monetary policies will be in addition to the trade-in programs.</li>
<li>Consumer in service sectors like e-commerce, travel &amp; tourism, healthcare, elderly care and AI will benefit from increasing consumption.  Local brands stand to gain market share against foreign competitors.</li>
</ul>


China has announced that it will significantly boost the share of domestic consumption in its next five years, while maintaining tech and manufacturing as top priorities.
The nation's banks will be instrumental in providing consumption financing to spur a virtual growth driver for the economy.  Easing monetary policies will be in addition to the trade-in programs.
Consumer in service sectors like e-commerce, travel &amp; tourism, healthcare, elderly care and AI will benefit from increasing consumption.  Local brands stand to gain market share against foreign competitors.


CHINA HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION: Unlocking Growth Potential in Five-Year Plan

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/resonac-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1496:1" rel="noopener">Resonac Holdings (4004 JP)</a> is worth more than ¥200/share over the medium-term. But expect this <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crasus-chemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:58630:1" rel="noopener">Crasus Chemical (646A JP)</a> spinoff to create trading and accumulation opportunities in the near future.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokio-marine-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7591:1" rel="noopener">Tokio Marine (8766 JP)</a> reportedly identified <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suncorp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4218:1" rel="noopener">Suncorp (SUN AU)</a>. It's a clean play after selling Suncorp Bank to ANZ. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insurance-australia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:712:1" rel="noopener">IAG (IAG AU)</a> is now cleaner after settling the Greensill litigation.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/legend-holdings-corporation-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:517:1" rel="noopener">Legend Holdings (3396 HK)</a> remains deeply valued. It is now seeking to offload its 90% stake in Banque Internationale à Luxembourg for ~HK$23bn. </li>
</ul>



Resonac Holdings (4004 JP) is worth more than ¥200/share over the medium-term. But expect this Crasus Chemical (646A JP) spinoff to create trading and accumulation opportunities in the near future.

Tokio Marine (8766 JP) reportedly identified Suncorp (SUN AU). It's a clean play after selling Suncorp Bank to ANZ. IAG (IAG AU) is now cleaner after settling the Greensill litigation.

Legend Holdings (3396 HK) remains deeply valued. It is now seeking to offload its 90% stake in Banque Internationale à Luxembourg for ~HK$23bn. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Resonac, Tokio Marine/Suncorp/IAG, Legend, Chery Automobile

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.</li>
<li>Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.</li>
<li>As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
</ul>


We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.
Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.
As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).


Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

<ul>
<li>In the US, the October nonfarm payrolls came in significantly below expectations at 12 k (100 k e / 223 k revised p). In addition, payrolls for the preceding two months were revised downwards by 112 k (+72 k p).</li>
<li>Payrolls in October were impacted by Hurricanes Milton and Helene, as well as a major strike at Boeing.</li>
<li>The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1% (4.1% e), while the average hourly earnings stood at 0.4% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.3% revised p) and 4.0% y-o-y (4.0% e / 3.9% revised p). </li>
</ul>


In the US, the October nonfarm payrolls came in significantly below expectations at 12 k (100 k e / 223 k revised p). In addition, payrolls for the preceding two months were revised downwards by 112 k (+72 k p).
Payrolls in October were impacted by Hurricanes Milton and Helene, as well as a major strike at Boeing.
The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1% (4.1% e), while the average hourly earnings stood at 0.4% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.3% revised p) and 4.0% y-o-y (4.0% e / 3.9% revised p). 


Macau

MGM China Holdings Limited is an investment holding company that develops, owns, and operates gaming and lodging resorts in the Greater China region. The company operates casino games of chance, hotel, and resort facilities, and provides hotel management services, notably through its MGM Macau and MGM Cotai properties. It was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Macau.

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MGM China (2282 HK)

Macau Gaming Handbook 2026: One Market, Six Concessionaires, One Yardstick

The complete guide to Macau gaming — industry, regulation, Beijing risk and all six concessionaires ranked and valued on one yardstick. Read this...

Mo Aziz

CHINA HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION: Unlocking Growth Potential in Five-Year Plan

China has announced that it will significantly boost the share of domestic consumption in its next five years, while maintaining tech and...

David Mudd

Last Week In Event SPACE: Resonac, Tokio Marine/Suncorp/IAG, Legend, Chery Automobile

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1% (4.1% e), while the average hourly earnings stood at 0.4% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.3% revised p) and 4.0% y-o...

Lucror Analytics

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