Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASML has been underperforming for 18 months. Recent downgrades are a delayed recognition of reality. ASML’s management goals for 2030 (10% revenue growth Cagr) are ok (plausible) </li>
<li>But growth is slowing fast in 2H25-1H26. Growth should re-accelerate in 2H26 as the impact of China and  Mature node lower spending, multiple delays (Intel, Samsung) is fading away. </li>
<li>The stock is getting cheaper, but lacks catalysts for another 2-3 quarters. Trading at 25x forward PEx, that’s reasonable given the firm’s intrinsic qualities.</li>
</ul>


ASML has been underperforming for 18 months. Recent downgrades are a delayed recognition of reality. ASML’s management goals for 2030 (10% revenue growth Cagr) are ok (plausible) 
But growth is slowing fast in 2H25-1H26. Growth should re-accelerate in 2H26 as the impact of China and  Mature node lower spending, multiple delays (Intel, Samsung) is fading away. 
The stock is getting cheaper, but lacks catalysts for another 2-3 quarters. Trading at 25x forward PEx, that’s reasonable given the firm’s intrinsic qualities.


ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

<ul>
<li>April 2025, the US Gvt extended restrictions on Nvidia’s China-specific H20 chip. Restriction also apply to H20’s memory bandwidth. This means SK Hynix HBM and TSMC CoWoS.   </li>
<li>Nvidia new China-specific chip derive from this: a downgraded chip, half a Blackwell, without HBM-CoWoS packaging. Time to design, manufacture, could lead to ~15% downside risk to FY26 Consensus?   </li>
<li>FY26 revenues could land at US$175bn or  -12% below Consensus at 199bn. $175bn implies 35% growth YoY, Consensus expects 52%. The stock trades at “low” 30x FY26 and 24x FY27.</li>
</ul>


April 2025, the US Gvt extended restrictions on Nvidia’s China-specific H20 chip. Restriction also apply to H20’s memory bandwidth. This means SK Hynix HBM and TSMC CoWoS.   
Nvidia new China-specific chip derive from this: a downgraded chip, half a Blackwell, without HBM-CoWoS packaging. Time to design, manufacture, could lead to ~15% downside risk to FY26 Consensus?   
FY26 revenues could land at US$175bn or  -12% below Consensus at 199bn. $175bn implies 35% growth YoY, Consensus expects 52%. The stock trades at “low” 30x FY26 and 24x FY27.


Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

<ul>
<li>Tier-2 commodity Memory is a lousy business, which requires high Capex and R&amp;D, generates very low Free Cash Flows. DRAM is more sustainable than NAND as peak margins are higher. </li>
<li>Kioxia only makes NAND, has a high market share (16%) but is a Tier-2 supplier with a roadmap lagging SK Hynix by ~2 years, and a high exposure to Consumer. </li>
<li>The Memory cycle has recovered, probably close to peak earnings. That’s why stocks have been declining (Micron, Hynix).  Part 2 will cover financials (there's a bad surprise) and valuations. </li>
</ul>


Tier-2 commodity Memory is a lousy business, which requires high Capex and R&amp;D, generates very low Free Cash Flows. DRAM is more sustainable than NAND as peak margins are higher. 
Kioxia only makes NAND, has a high market share (16%) but is a Tier-2 supplier with a roadmap lagging SK Hynix by ~2 years, and a high exposure to Consumer. 
The Memory cycle has recovered, probably close to peak earnings. That’s why stocks have been declining (Micron, Hynix).  Part 2 will cover financials (there's a bad surprise) and valuations. 


What Is Kioxia? And Should You Bother? Part 1: Why NAND Is so Hard (And Not Attractive)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Following AMD AI conference on 10 Oct, many question AMD's estimate of the AI Accelerators market reaching US$500bn by 2028 (from $45bn in 2023).  </li>
<li>AI Accelerators market value is increasing by 150% in 2024, reaching US$113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS capacity, we  think reasonable to expect 115% growth over 2025-26 or US$276bn in 2026.</li>
<li>TSMC makes all the chips. HBM is dominated by Hynix. Nvidia should remain the dominant vendor for years. AMD and Broadcom should grow faster than NVDA. Outsourcing: Alchip, Marvel, Mediatek. </li>
</ul>


Following AMD AI conference on 10 Oct, many question AMD's estimate of the AI Accelerators market reaching US$500bn by 2028 (from $45bn in 2023).  
AI Accelerators market value is increasing by 150% in 2024, reaching US$113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS capacity, we  think reasonable to expect 115% growth over 2025-26 or US$276bn in 2026.
TSMC makes all the chips. HBM is dominated by Hynix. Nvidia should remain the dominant vendor for years. AMD and Broadcom should grow faster than NVDA. Outsourcing: Alchip, Marvel, Mediatek. 


How Big Is the AI Accelerator Market? AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Micron's latest results show a clear improvement in the Memory cycle. The company's gross margin increased and guided for a further strong margin increase next quarter.</li>
<li>Micron increased its overall DRAM industry growth forecast while maintaining its NAND flash forecast. Micron reiterated expectations for FY2025E to deliver record revenue for the company, with improving profitability.</li>
<li>Positive news for fallen Memory industry shares -- Within our Memory universe we have Structural Long ratings for Micron Technology (MU US), SK Hynix (000660 KS), and Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO US).</li>
</ul>


Micron's latest results show a clear improvement in the Memory cycle. The company's gross margin increased and guided for a further strong margin increase next quarter.
Micron increased its overall DRAM industry growth forecast while maintaining its NAND flash forecast. Micron reiterated expectations for FY2025E to deliver record revenue for the company, with improving profitability.
Positive news for fallen Memory industry shares -- Within our Memory universe we have Structural Long ratings for Micron Technology (MU US), SK Hynix (000660 KS), and Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO US).


Memory Monitor: Micron Results Show Clear Signs of Memory Market Upswing; DRAM Growth Upgraded

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

ASML's underperformance is a delayed reality check, but management's 2030 goals are plausible. Growth is slowing but will re-accelerate in 2H26....

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples

Nicolas Baratte

What Is Kioxia? And Should You Bother? Part 1: Why NAND Is so Hard (And Not Attractive)

Tier-2 NAND memory supplier Kioxia faces challenges with high Capex and R&D costs, low Free Cash Flows, and lagging behind technology leader SK...

Nicolas Baratte

How Big Is the AI Accelerator Market? AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC

AMD estimates AI Accelerators will reach US$500bn by 2028 ($45bn in 2023). Accelerators increased by 150% in 2024, $113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS,...

Nicolas Baratte

Memory Monitor: Micron Results Show Clear Signs of Memory Market Upswing; DRAM Growth Upgraded

Micron's latest results show improved margins and growth forecasts, signaling positive news for Memory industry shares.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

​ASML's underperformance is a delayed reality check, but management's 2030 goals are plausible. Growth is slowing but will re-accelerate in 2H26....

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

​Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples

Nicolas Baratte

What Is Kioxia? And Should You Bother? Part 1: Why NAND Is so Hard (And Not Attractive)

​Tier-2 NAND memory supplier Kioxia faces challenges with high Capex and R&D costs, low Free Cash Flows, and lagging behind technology leader SK...

Nicolas Baratte

How Big Is the AI Accelerator Market? AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC

AMD estimates AI Accelerators will reach US$500bn by 2028 ($45bn in 2023). Accelerators increased by 150% in 2024, $113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS,...

Nicolas Baratte

Memory Monitor: Micron Results Show Clear Signs of Memory Market Upswing; DRAM Growth Upgraded

​Micron's latest results show improved margins and growth forecasts, signaling positive news for Memory industry shares.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASML's underperformance is a delayed reality check, but management's 2030 goals are plausible. Growth is slowing but will re-accelerate in 2H26....

Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples

Tier-2 NAND memory supplier Kioxia faces challenges with high Capex and R&D costs, low Free Cash Flows, and lagging behind technology leader SK...

Micron's latest results show improved margins and growth forecasts, signaling positive news for Memory industry shares.