Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>The U.S. is reportedly working to implement China semiconductor restrictions with South Korean firms, after doing the same with Japanese and Dutch firms.</li>
<li>Nanya management sees a bottom for Memory prices in 1Q23E; we look at Long Micron vs. Short Nanya.</li>
<li>Firms are significantly expanding semiconductor capacity in Singapore, with the latest being Applied Materials and French firm Soitec.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. is reportedly working to implement China semiconductor restrictions with South Korean firms, after doing the same with Japanese and Dutch firms.
Nanya management sees a bottom for Memory prices in 1Q23E; we look at Long Micron vs. Short Nanya.
Firms are significantly expanding semiconductor capacity in Singapore, with the latest being Applied Materials and French firm Soitec.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: U.S. Pushing South Korea China Restrictions, Nanya Says Memory Bottom in 1Q23E

<ul>
<li>Long Micron vs. Short Nanya - We remain biased to Long Micron vs. Nanya Technology based on multiple factors.</li>
<li>Relative valuation and inventory management appears to favor Micron. Nanya Technology's inventory days blow-out increases risk of write-downs impacting its next earnings.</li>
<li>Potential news flow also appears to favor Micron as the US CHIPS Act rolls out.</li>
</ul>


Long Micron vs. Short Nanya - We remain biased to Long Micron vs. Nanya Technology based on multiple factors.
Relative valuation and inventory management appears to favor Micron. Nanya Technology's inventory days blow-out increases risk of write-downs impacting its next earnings.
Potential news flow also appears to favor Micron as the US CHIPS Act rolls out.


Memory Monitor: Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya Technology; Nanya Relatively Over-Valued

<ul>
<li>Berkshire's TSMC U-Turn. Berkshire's TSMC stake was sold down by 86.2% just months after acquiring it. One had to wonder what the about-face on the investment was based on.</li>
<li>Applied Materials results well received by the market, however provided some caveates in terms of how fast the Memory chip industry recovery will come. (Readthrough: Nanya Tech, Micron, SK hynix)</li>
<li>TSMC believes that the automotive chip crunch is now easing, which should be good news for the auto industry, especially EV.</li>
</ul>


Berkshire's TSMC U-Turn. Berkshire's TSMC stake was sold down by 86.2% just months after acquiring it. One had to wonder what the about-face on the investment was based on.
Applied Materials results well received by the market, however provided some caveates in terms of how fast the Memory chip industry recovery will come. (Readthrough: Nanya Tech, Micron, SK hynix)
TSMC believes that the automotive chip crunch is now easing, which should be good news for the auto industry, especially EV.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: AMAT Results Imply Longer Memory Weakness, Berkshire's U-Turn on TSMC

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

<ul>
<li>This week we digest key takeaways from some of the latest key industry results that came out (ASE Technologies (TW), Novatek (TW), and Tokyo Electron (JP)).</li>
<li>ASE and Tokyo Electron exhibited their insulated positions during the current inventory corrections happening, delivering decent margins and beating expectations. Novatek also beat expectations.</li>
<li>Forward expectations are generally for a worse 1Q23E ahead followed by the beginning of a recovery in 2Q23E. Is this becoming simply the consensus view, however?</li>
</ul>


This week we digest key takeaways from some of the latest key industry results that came out (ASE Technologies (TW), Novatek (TW), and Tokyo Electron (JP)).
ASE and Tokyo Electron exhibited their insulated positions during the current inventory corrections happening, delivering decent margins and beating expectations. Novatek also beat expectations.
Forward expectations are generally for a worse 1Q23E ahead followed by the beginning of a recovery in 2Q23E. Is this becoming simply the consensus view, however?


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Latest Key Results Add More Expectations for a 2H23E Turnaround

<ul>
<li>Samsung reported 4Q22 detailed results - Semiconductor earnings evaporated and its memory subsegment likely lost money.</li>
<li>Samsung re-iterated that it would NOT cut capex despite the market downturn - Samsung appears ready to endure losses which is negative for Nanya Tech, SK Hynix, and Micron.</li>
<li>Japan and the Netherlands have joined the U.S. with chip technology restrictions for China - Hon Hai is a net winner.</li>
</ul>


Samsung reported 4Q22 detailed results - Semiconductor earnings evaporated and its memory subsegment likely lost money.
Samsung re-iterated that it would NOT cut capex despite the market downturn - Samsung appears ready to endure losses which is negative for Nanya Tech, SK Hynix, and Micron.
Japan and the Netherlands have joined the U.S. with chip technology restrictions for China - Hon Hai is a net winner.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Samsung Results; Will Bleed Competitors; Japan & Holland Join China Chip Ban

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: U.S. Pushing South Korea China Restrictions, Nanya Says Memory Bottom in 1Q23E

Firms are also significantly expanding semiconductor capacity in Singapore, with the latest being Applied Materials and French firm Soitec.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Monitor: Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya Technology; Nanya Relatively Over-Valued

Relative valuation and inventory management appears to favor Micron. Nanya Technology's inventory days blow-out increases risk of write-downs...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: AMAT Results Imply Longer Memory Weakness, Berkshire's U-Turn on TSMC

Applied Materials results well received by the market, however provided some caveates in terms of how fast the Memory chip industry recovery will...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Latest Key Results Add More Expectations for a 2H23E Turnaround

Forward expectations are generally for a worse 1Q23E ahead followed by the beginning of a recovery in 2Q23E. Is this becoming simply the consensus...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Samsung Results; Will Bleed Competitors; Japan & Holland Join China Chip Ban

Samsung re-iterated that it would NOT cut capex despite the market downturn - Samsung appears ready to endure losses which is negative for Nanya...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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