Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At end-September, the Nikkei 225 semi-annual review imposed a "cap" on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> in the Average, applying a 0.9 coefficient to the Price Adjustment Factor.</li>
<li>At its current weight, Fast Retailing will be capped again in March 2025. If the stock outperforms Nikkei 225 by another 3% before 31 January 2025, it could be double-capped.</li>
<li>And an additional 16% would mean ¥1.1trln of sales in March. But like last time, this is a rubber band which stretches. Too far, and selling pressure is obvious.</li>
</ul>


At end-September, the Nikkei 225 semi-annual review imposed a "cap" on Fast Retailing (9983 JP) in the Average, applying a 0.9 coefficient to the Price Adjustment Factor.
At its current weight, Fast Retailing will be capped again in March 2025. If the stock outperforms Nikkei 225 by another 3% before 31 January 2025, it could be double-capped.
And an additional 16% would mean ¥1.1trln of sales in March. But like last time, this is a rubber band which stretches. Too far, and selling pressure is obvious.


Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Considering Fast Retailing Capping.... Again...

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Just two weeks ago, I wrote about how I thought this was a mid-memory cycle.</li><li>I mainly supported the memory companies if you didn’t read between the lines (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chatgpt-o1-strawberry-and-memory" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ChatGPT o1 (Strawberry) and Memory)</a></li><li>Fast-forward a week, and it seems that the calls for the end of memory were a bit premature.</li></ul>

Just two weeks ago, I wrote about how I thought this was a mid-memory cycle.I mainly supported the memory companies if you didn’t read between the lines (ChatGPT o1 (Strawberry) and Memory)Fast-forward a week, and it seems that the calls for the end of memory were a bit premature.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Memory stocks underperformed the market, falling sharply with the recent overall market rout and failing to rebound sufficiently with the latest market rally.</li>
<li>Leading Memory names Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung are all substantially below their 52-week highs after market reports of slowing memory demand from PC and mobile industries and inventory liquidation.</li>
<li>Taiwan names Nanya Tech, Silicon Motion, Phison are all we below their highs. Micron results on September 25th MT will provide a major outlook update for the market.</li>
</ul>


Memory stocks underperformed the market, falling sharply with the recent overall market rout and failing to rebound sufficiently with the latest market rally.
Leading Memory names Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung are all substantially below their 52-week highs after market reports of slowing memory demand from PC and mobile industries and inventory liquidation.
Taiwan names Nanya Tech, Silicon Motion, Phison are all we below their highs. Micron results on September 25th MT will provide a major outlook update for the market.


Memory Monitor: Upcoming Micron Results & Outlook Key Amid Reports of Inventory Liquidation

Global TMT Analyst, Ex-PM, 30 years experience

Neil Campling

<ul>
<li>Significant peer price performance declines leaves IPO valuation stretched, the desired discount multiple to attract interest has suddenly become a premium</li>
<li>Investor interest in memory semiconductors, AI derivative stocks has cooled</li>
<li>Peer price sell-offs are extreme but could quickly change, reflecting the highly cyclical nature of the sector</li>
</ul>


Significant peer price performance declines leaves IPO valuation stretched, the desired discount multiple to attract interest has suddenly become a premium
Investor interest in memory semiconductors, AI derivative stocks has cooled
Peer price sell-offs are extreme but could quickly change, reflecting the highly cyclical nature of the sector


Tech: Japan's Biggest IPO in 6 Years, Kioxia, Is Off. Here Is the Likely Reason

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Qualcomm Eyes Bold, Friendly Intel Acquisition Amid Intel's Existential Crisis</li>
<li>Global Semi Sales Strength Continues In July. How Long Can It Last? </li>
<li>Asustek Soars, Uniquely Making Fresh 52-Week Highs Within PC Makers</li>
</ul>


Qualcomm Eyes Bold, Friendly Intel Acquisition Amid Intel's Existential Crisis
Global Semi Sales Strength Continues In July. How Long Can It Last? 
Asustek Soars, Uniquely Making Fresh 52-Week Highs Within PC Makers


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Qualcomm Eyes Bold Intel Acquisition; Global Semi Sales Strength Continues

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Considering Fast Retailing Capping.... Again...

Fast Retailing is the first Nikkei 225 stock to be capped. That meant nearly ¥400bn of selling yesterday. Now it is due to be capped again in 6...

Travis Lundy

Micron and WFE

Just two weeks ago, I wrote about how I thought this was a mid-memory cycle. I mainly supported the memory companies if you didn’t read between...

Fabricated Knowledge

Memory Monitor: Upcoming Micron Results & Outlook Key Amid Reports of Inventory Liquidation

Stay Long Micron, SK Hynix, and Silicon Motion into upcoming Micron results on September 25th Mountain Time. Memory outlook unlikely to be overly...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tech: Japan's Biggest IPO in 6 Years, Kioxia, Is Off. Here Is the Likely Reason

IPO valuation stretched as peer price declines leave desired discount turning into a premium. investor interest in memory semiconductors and AI...

Neil Campling

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Qualcomm Eyes Bold Intel Acquisition; Global Semi Sales Strength Continues

Qualcomm considers acquiring struggling Intel, global semiconductor sales remain strong in July, Asustek achieves new highs among PC makers.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Considering Fast Retailing Capping.... Again...

Fast Retailing is the first Nikkei 225 stock to be capped. That meant nearly ¥400bn of selling yesterday. Now it is due to be capped again in 6...

Travis Lundy

Micron and WFE

Just two weeks ago, I wrote about how I thought this was a mid-memory cycle. I mainly supported the memory companies if you didn’t read between...

Fabricated Knowledge

Memory Monitor: Upcoming Micron Results & Outlook Key Amid Reports of Inventory Liquidation

Stay Long Micron, SK Hynix, and Silicon Motion into upcoming Micron results on September 25th Mountain Time. Memory outlook unlikely to be overly...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tech: Japan's Biggest IPO in 6 Years, Kioxia, Is Off. Here Is the Likely Reason

​IPO valuation stretched as peer price declines leave desired discount turning into a premium. investor interest in memory semiconductors and AI...

Neil Campling

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Qualcomm Eyes Bold Intel Acquisition; Global Semi Sales Strength Continues

​Qualcomm considers acquiring struggling Intel, global semiconductor sales remain strong in July, Asustek achieves new highs among PC makers.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

IPO valuation stretched as peer price declines leave desired discount turning into a premium. investor interest in memory semiconductors and AI...

Qualcomm considers acquiring struggling Intel, global semiconductor sales remain strong in July, Asustek achieves new highs among PC makers.