Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Revenue: $82.9B, +18% YoY, +2% QoQ, and a beat against the ~$81.4B consensus estimate. Microsoft guided to a Q3 midpoint of $81.2B on the Q2 call; they cleared it comfortably.</li>
<li>Azure grew: 40% year-over-year, 39% in constant currency. The Q2 call guided 37-38% constant currency for Q3. A year ago it was 35%. The re-acceleration is real.</li>
<li>Hood’s FY2026 full-year capex guidance: $190 billion. The prior consensus was around $154.6 billion. The guidance represented a 23% upward revision in a single quarter. Oh my!</li>
</ul>


Revenue: $82.9B, +18% YoY, +2% QoQ, and a beat against the ~$81.4B consensus estimate. Microsoft guided to a Q3 midpoint of $81.2B on the Q2 call; they cleared it comfortably.
Azure grew: 40% year-over-year, 39% in constant currency. The Q2 call guided 37-38% constant currency for Q3. A year ago it was 35%. The re-acceleration is real.
Hood’s FY2026 full-year capex guidance: $190 billion. The prior consensus was around $154.6 billion. The guidance represented a 23% upward revision in a single quarter. Oh my!


Microsoft Q3 FY2026. The $190 Billion CapEx Bombshell

<ul>
<li>On April 27, 2026, Microsoft &amp; OpenAI jointly announcing what they are calling the <em><strong>next phase</strong></em> of their partnership. </li>
<li>Under the terms of the deal, Microsoft no longer pay a revenue share to OpenAI, while the latter continues to pay its a revenue share to Microsoft through 2030</li>
<li>Microsoft also loses its exclusivity agreement on hosting OpenAI's APIs. That's a big deal, albeit it was the inevitable outcome as OpenAI spreads it wings and embraces other infrastructure partners...</li>
</ul>


On April 27, 2026, Microsoft &amp; OpenAI jointly announcing what they are calling the next phase of their partnership. 
Under the terms of the deal, Microsoft no longer pay a revenue share to OpenAI, while the latter continues to pay its a revenue share to Microsoft through 2030
Microsoft also loses its exclusivity agreement on hosting OpenAI's APIs. That's a big deal, albeit it was the inevitable outcome as OpenAI spreads it wings and embraces other infrastructure partners...


Microsoft and OpenAI Relationship Transitions From Next Chapter To Next Phase

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ChipAgents is moving agentic EDA into production, with Andes Tech reporting major cycle-time reductions and ChipAgents reaching 120+ semiconductor customers after roughly 6x ARR growth in H12026.</li>
<li>EDA-Maxxing depends on agents creating more paid design activity through additional projects and deeper exploration than they eliminate through fewer expensive tool runs.</li>
<li>Cadence and Synopsys have early monetisation advantages, but investors still need evidence that higher agent-driven tool usage translates into larger EDA budgets and incremental revenue.</li>
</ul>


ChipAgents is moving agentic EDA into production, with Andes Tech reporting major cycle-time reductions and ChipAgents reaching 120+ semiconductor customers after roughly 6x ARR growth in H12026.
EDA-Maxxing depends on agents creating more paid design activity through additional projects and deeper exploration than they eliminate through fewer expensive tool runs.
Cadence and Synopsys have early monetisation advantages, but investors still need evidence that higher agent-driven tool usage translates into larger EDA budgets and incremental revenue.


[EDA-Maxxing] AI Agents Are Designing Faster; Will EDA Spending Follow?

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

<ul>
<li>We tracked AI models, infrastructure, and M&amp;A this week: OpenAI and Anthropic refreshed frontier models while Moonshot started its Hong Kong IPO process.</li>
<li>MiniMax powered HUMAIN's Arabic sovereign model, Alibaba refreshed Qwen, and Artificial Analysis kept new US frontier releases at the top of the ranking.</li>
<li>Nvidia agreed to buy Hugging Face, Anthropic expanded compute financing, and AI infrastructure demand flowed through hyperscalers, hardware vendors, chips and memory.</li>
</ul>


We tracked AI models, infrastructure, and M&amp;A this week: OpenAI and Anthropic refreshed frontier models while Moonshot started its Hong Kong IPO process.
MiniMax powered HUMAIN's Arabic sovereign model, Alibaba refreshed Qwen, and Artificial Analysis kept new US frontier releases at the top of the ranking.
Nvidia agreed to buy Hugging Face, Anthropic expanded compute financing, and AI infrastructure demand flowed through hyperscalers, hardware vendors, chips and memory.


This Week in AI (Aug 30-Sep 5): GPT-6 Astra and Fable 5.1 in Same Week; Moonshot Files IPO

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Microsoft is still widely discussed as a software, cloud, and artificial intelligence leader, but its latest moves suggest a broader strategic transformation that is easier to miss if one looks only at products and not at the physical systems underneath them.</li><li>The company is in exclusive talks with Chevron and Engine No. 1 around a long-term arrangement tied to a proposed roughly $7 billion natural gas-fired power plant in West Texas that could initially generate 2,500 megawatts for a large data center campus, with the project potentially expanding further over time.</li><li>At the same time, management’s latest earnings call made clear that the company is thinking about AI infrastructure in intensely physical terms, emphasizing capacity additions, land, facilities, power availability, and an optimization metric based on “tokens per watt per dollar.</li></ul>

Microsoft is still widely discussed as a software, cloud, and artificial intelligence leader, but its latest moves suggest a broader strategic transformation that is easier to miss if one looks only at products and not at the physical systems underneath them.The company is in exclusive talks with Chevron and Engine No. 1 around a long-term arrangement tied to a proposed roughly $7 billion natural gas-fired power plant in West Texas that could initially generate 2,500 megawatts for a large data center campus, with the project potentially expanding further over time.At the same time, management’s latest earnings call made clear that the company is thinking about AI infrastructure in intensely physical terms, emphasizing capacity additions, land, facilities, power availability, and an optimization metric based on “tokens per watt per dollar.

Microsoft Is Rewriting The Rules Of AI With A $7B Chevron Deal—But What’s The Endgame?

United States

Microsoft Corporation operates as a software company. The Company offers applications, extra cloud storage, and advanced security solutions. Microsoft serves customers worldwide.

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Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)

Microsoft Q3 FY2026. The $190 Billion CapEx Bombshell

Hood’s FY2026 full-year capex guidance: $190 billion. The prior consensus was around $154.6 billion. The guidance represented a 23% upward revision...

William Keating

Microsoft and OpenAI Relationship Transitions From Next Chapter To Next Phase

Microsoft loses its exclusivity agreement on hosting OpenAI's APIs. That's a big deal, albeit it was the inevitable outcome as OpenAI spreads it...

William Keating

[EDA-Maxxing] AI Agents Are Designing Faster; Will EDA Spending Follow?

AI agents are making chip design faster, but will they make EDA more valuable? We examine whether agentic workflows expand paid demand for Cadence...

Mint Finance

This Week in AI (Aug 30-Sep 5): GPT-6 Astra and Fable 5.1 in Same Week; Moonshot Files IPO

This week in AI: GPT-6 Astra and Claude Fable 5.1 arrive together; Nvidia buys Hugging Face for USD 12.93bn; Moonshot files for a Hong Kong IPO.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Microsoft Is Rewriting The Rules Of AI With A $7B Chevron Deal—But What’s The Endgame?

Microsoft is still widely discussed as a software, cloud, and artificial intelligence leader, but its latest moves suggest a broader strategic...

Baptista Research

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