Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Chinese AI model downloads have surpassed those of the U.S. putting at risk the valuations of the large hyperscalers in the U.S.</li>
<li>Chinese open-source AI models offer a more secure, efficient, and lower cost alternative to Chat GPT -5 , Claude 4.5 Sonnet, and other U.S. LLMs.  </li>
<li>We believe that there will be a turning point when investors will realize that the Chinese open-source AI models have undercut the premise of U.S. global dominance of AI.</li>
</ul>


Chinese AI model downloads have surpassed those of the U.S. putting at risk the valuations of the large hyperscalers in the U.S.
Chinese open-source AI models offer a more secure, efficient, and lower cost alternative to Chat GPT -5 , Claude 4.5 Sonnet, and other U.S. LLMs.  
We believe that there will be a turning point when investors will realize that the Chinese open-source AI models have undercut the premise of U.S. global dominance of AI.


CHINA'S AI COMMODITIZATION: Can Global AI Valuations Survive?

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>NVIDIA's has a strong position in the AI industry, but global trade policies introduce short-term uncertainties. Strong revenues and cash position buffer against policy-driven obstacles, particularly concerning its China revenues.</li>
<li>We highlight NVIDIA's technological leadership, including its full-stack computing infrastructure and rapid platform transitions. External pressures weigh on projected revenues, including export restrictions and increasing competition from major tech companies.</li>
<li>We see potentially overpriced implied volatility. This strategy aims to generate premium while managing risks associated with price movements, especially in the context of evolving geopolitical and competitive landscapes.</li>
</ul>


NVIDIA's has a strong position in the AI industry, but global trade policies introduce short-term uncertainties. Strong revenues and cash position buffer against policy-driven obstacles, particularly concerning its China revenues.
We highlight NVIDIA's technological leadership, including its full-stack computing infrastructure and rapid platform transitions. External pressures weigh on projected revenues, including export restrictions and increasing competition from major tech companies.
We see potentially overpriced implied volatility. This strategy aims to generate premium while managing risks associated with price movements, especially in the context of evolving geopolitical and competitive landscapes.


NVIDIA: An Options Strategy for Riding the AI Data Center Waves

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

<ul>
<li>In October FIIs bought US$2.36bn of Asian equities, sharply lower than US$8.42bn in September. They sold Taiwan (-US$3.2bn), bought Korea (US$4.2bn) and India (US$1.66bn). ASEAN continued to be sold.</li>
<li>FIIs' dampened sentiment was triggered by Asia's toppish valuations and a decline in probability of a Fed rate cut in December, which in turn led to a stronger US Dollar.</li>
<li>Going forward we expect flows to recover in Taiwan and stay healthy in Korea, as sentiment on AI capex recovers, driven by strong growth and robust capex targets of hyperscalers.</li>
</ul>


In October FIIs bought US$2.36bn of Asian equities, sharply lower than US$8.42bn in September. They sold Taiwan (-US$3.2bn), bought Korea (US$4.2bn) and India (US$1.66bn). ASEAN continued to be sold.
FIIs' dampened sentiment was triggered by Asia's toppish valuations and a decline in probability of a Fed rate cut in December, which in turn led to a stronger US Dollar.
Going forward we expect flows to recover in Taiwan and stay healthy in Korea, as sentiment on AI capex recovers, driven by strong growth and robust capex targets of hyperscalers.


Asian Equities: Foreign Flows Wobbled in October; Taiwan Sold, Korea Moderated; India Bounced Back

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nearly every comment on Japanese equities is focused on the half of the market that trades below book, but last week, Advantest, which trades at 18x book, exploded 30%.</li>
<li>Searches for “AI Bubble” on google are up 90%, but Advantest’s share price exploded because it became clear that investors were underestimating demand for AI related hardware.</li>
<li>Fear and Hype on both sides proved overdone. When I searched for the truth, I found only 1 red flag, 2 green, and 7 yellow.  </li>
</ul>


Nearly every comment on Japanese equities is focused on the half of the market that trades below book, but last week, Advantest, which trades at 18x book, exploded 30%.
Searches for “AI Bubble” on google are up 90%, but Advantest’s share price exploded because it became clear that investors were underestimating demand for AI related hardware.
Fear and Hype on both sides proved overdone. When I searched for the truth, I found only 1 red flag, 2 green, and 7 yellow.  


Advantest (6857) Bubble Watch: 1 Red Flag, 2 Green, 7 Yellow. You Decide.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>First 3 hyperscalers to report (GOOG, META, MSFT). GOOG and META increase 2025 Capex. GOOG and META mention “significant increase” or “larger increase” in 2026.</li>
<li>MSFT is in 1Q26, ending June-27. In FY25 Capex increased by 58% YoY. FY 26 capex will increase more than in FY25.</li>
<li>Altogether it looks like a ~50% Capex increase in 2026.</li>
</ul>


First 3 hyperscalers to report (GOOG, META, MSFT). GOOG and META increase 2025 Capex. GOOG and META mention “significant increase” or “larger increase” in 2026.
MSFT is in 1Q26, ending June-27. In FY25 Capex increased by 58% YoY. FY 26 capex will increase more than in FY25.
Altogether it looks like a ~50% Capex increase in 2026.


Hyperscalers’ Capex Update. Remember Jensen’s $500bn Yesterday ?

United States

Microsoft Corporation operates as a software company. The Company offers applications, extra cloud storage, and advanced security solutions. Microsoft serves customers worldwide.

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Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)

CHINA'S AI COMMODITIZATION: Can Global AI Valuations Survive?

Chinese AI model downloads have surpassed those of the U.S. putting at risk the valuations of the large hyperscalers in the U.S.

David Mudd

NVIDIA: An Options Strategy for Riding the AI Data Center Waves

NVIDIA 3Q26 results November 19, 2025 (CFO commentary to be posted at ~1:20 p.m. PT, followed by a limited Q&A). What to watch on earnings that...

Jay Cameron

Asian Equities: Foreign Flows Wobbled in October; Taiwan Sold, Korea Moderated; India Bounced Back

FIIs cut Asian equity purchases in October due to high valuations & lower Fed rate cut probability driving a stronger USD. Expect flow revival in...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Advantest (6857) Bubble Watch: 1 Red Flag, 2 Green, 7 Yellow. You Decide.

Half of Japan’s stocks trade below book value, while google searches for “AI bubble” have increased 90%, so Advantest, trading at 18x book just...

Michael Allen

Hyperscalers’ Capex Update. Remember Jensen’s $500bn Yesterday ?

GOOG and META plan significant Capex increase in 2026, while MSFT saw a 58% YoY increase in FY25 and expects more in FY26. Overall, a ~50% Capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

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CHINA'S AI COMMODITIZATION: Can Global AI Valuations Survive?

Chinese AI model downloads have surpassed those of the U.S. putting at risk the valuations of the large hyperscalers in the U.S.

David Mudd

NVIDIA: An Options Strategy for Riding the AI Data Center Waves

NVIDIA 3Q26 results November 19, 2025 (CFO commentary to be posted at ~1:20 p.m. PT, followed by a limited Q&A). What to watch on earnings that...

Jay Cameron

Asian Equities: Foreign Flows Wobbled in October; Taiwan Sold, Korea Moderated; India Bounced Back

​FIIs cut Asian equity purchases in October due to high valuations & lower Fed rate cut probability driving a stronger USD. Expect flow revival in...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Advantest (6857) Bubble Watch: 1 Red Flag, 2 Green, 7 Yellow. You Decide.

Half of Japan’s stocks trade below book value, while google searches for “AI bubble” have increased 90%, so Advantest, trading at 18x book just...

Michael Allen

Hyperscalers’ Capex Update. Remember Jensen’s $500bn Yesterday ?

​GOOG and META plan significant Capex increase in 2026, while MSFT saw a 58% YoY increase in FY25 and expects more in FY26. Overall, a ~50% Capex...

Nicolas Baratte

FIIs cut Asian equity purchases in October due to high valuations & lower Fed rate cut probability driving a stronger USD. Expect flow revival in...

GOOG and META plan significant Capex increase in 2026, while MSFT saw a 58% YoY increase in FY25 and expects more in FY26. Overall, a ~50% Capex...