AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Token costs no longer drop meaningfully with scale, and inference remains a fixed, expensive burden.</li>
<li>Rather than delivering major performance gains, GPT-5 appears to be a cost-routing shell, underperforming in several benchmarks.</li>
<li>With $115B in projected losses and hardly any visible scale-based leverage, OpenAI's only path forward is monetisation.</li>
</ul>


Token costs no longer drop meaningfully with scale, and inference remains a fixed, expensive burden.
Rather than delivering major performance gains, GPT-5 appears to be a cost-routing shell, underperforming in several benchmarks.
With $115B in projected losses and hardly any visible scale-based leverage, OpenAI's only path forward is monetisation.


OpenAI’s Path to Profitability Is Blocked by a $115B Compute Burden

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 3 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> in September. There are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index too.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade is US$19.6bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/communication-services-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27534:1" rel="noopener">Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US)</a>. </li>
<li>The largest flows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robinhood-markets-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33532:1" rel="noopener">Robinhood Markets (HOOD)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trade-desk-inc-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26467:1" rel="noopener">Trade Desk (TTD)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA (NVDA)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33361:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOGL)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft (MSFT US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil (XOM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chevron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11091:1" rel="noopener">Chevron (CVX)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 constituent changes for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) in September. There are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index too.
The round-trip trade is US$19.6bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) and Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US). 
The largest flows are expected in AppLovin (APP), Robinhood Markets (HOOD), Trade Desk (TTD), NVIDIA (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT US), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX).


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: Changes to Drive US$19.6bn Flow

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OpenAI CEO Sam Altman caused quite a stir with his recent comments about an AI bubble, people getting burned and someone on track to lose a phenomenal amount of money</li>
<li>However, his message would appear to be directed at other AI startups, not OpenAI, which he says plans to spend trillions on data centers in the not very distant future
</li>
<li>Meta's no-cost-spared talent grab &amp; Palantir's valuation are bubbly red flags but the AI infrastructure build out currently underway is real &amp; rational, assuming the ROI can follow expeditiously</li>
</ul>


OpenAI CEO Sam Altman caused quite a stir with his recent comments about an AI bubble, people getting burned and someone on track to lose a phenomenal amount of money
However, his message would appear to be directed at other AI startups, not OpenAI, which he says plans to spend trillions on data centers in the not very distant future

Meta's no-cost-spared talent grab &amp; Palantir's valuation are bubbly red flags but the AI infrastructure build out currently underway is real &amp; rational, assuming the ROI can follow expeditiously


@Sama Says There's An AI Bubble. What's Going On?

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss the sharp capital flight out of Korea into major stocks in the US in the past several years, especially into the MAG7 stocks.</li>
<li>We provide seven major reasons why Koreans' investments in the US stocks (especially MAG7) have been surging in the past several years. </li>
<li>When will they sell? We provide some clues on this.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss the sharp capital flight out of Korea into major stocks in the US in the past several years, especially into the MAG7 stocks.
We provide seven major reasons why Koreans' investments in the US stocks (especially MAG7) have been surging in the past several years. 
When will they sell? We provide some clues on this.


7 Main Reasons Driving Surging Ownership into MAG7 Stocks by Korean Investors: When Will They Sell?

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Netskope Inc., a VC-backed cybersecurity leader and provider of enterprise network security platform that helps customers apply zero trust principles to protect sensitive data, filed to go public.</li>
<li>The Santa Clara-based Netskope has raised a significant amount of equity and debt. According to Crunchbase, the company has raised ~$1B in equity across many rounds of funding.</li>
<li>With 30%+ ARR growth, improving profitability and leadership position, I expect a strong interest around high-profile Netskope IPO.</li>
</ul>


Netskope Inc., a VC-backed cybersecurity leader and provider of enterprise network security platform that helps customers apply zero trust principles to protect sensitive data, filed to go public.
The Santa Clara-based Netskope has raised a significant amount of equity and debt. According to Crunchbase, the company has raised ~$1B in equity across many rounds of funding.
With 30%+ ARR growth, improving profitability and leadership position, I expect a strong interest around high-profile Netskope IPO.


Netskope IPO Preview: A Hot Cybersecurity Play Is On Deck

United States

Microsoft Corporation operates as a software company. The Company offers applications, extra cloud storage, and advanced security solutions. Microsoft serves customers worldwide.

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Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)

OpenAI’s Path to Profitability Is Blocked by a $115B Compute Burden

As GPT-5 gets an underwhelming reception, token costs for OpenAI remain high even at scale. The company is looking at $115B in projected losses...

Mint Finance

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: Changes to Drive US$19.6bn Flow

Constituent changes to the S&P500 Index and capping changes result in a round-trip trade of US$19.6bn. AppLovin, Robinhood and Emcor will have more...

Brian Freitas

@Sama Says There's An AI Bubble. What's Going On?

Meta's no-cost-spared talent grab & Palantir's valuation are bubbly red flags but the AI infrastructure build out currently underway is real &...

William Keating

7 Main Reasons Driving Surging Ownership into MAG7 Stocks by Korean Investors: When Will They Sell?

In this insight, we discuss the sharp capital flight out of Korea into major stocks in the US in the past several years, especially into the MAG7...

Douglas Kim

Netskope IPO Preview: A Hot Cybersecurity Play Is On Deck

VC-backed cybersecurity company Netskope Inc. is expected to IPO in September. I have a positive view of upcoming offering and expect a strong...

Andrei Zakharov

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

OpenAI’s Path to Profitability Is Blocked by a $115B Compute Burden

​As GPT-5 gets an underwhelming reception, token costs for OpenAI remain high even at scale. The company is looking at $115B in projected losses...

Mint Finance

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: Changes to Drive US$19.6bn Flow

Constituent changes to the S&P500 Index and capping changes result in a round-trip trade of US$19.6bn. AppLovin, Robinhood and Emcor will have more...

Brian Freitas

@Sama Says There's An AI Bubble. What's Going On?

Meta's no-cost-spared talent grab & Palantir's valuation are bubbly red flags but the AI infrastructure build out currently underway is real &...

William Keating

7 Main Reasons Driving Surging Ownership into MAG7 Stocks by Korean Investors: When Will They Sell?

In this insight, we discuss the sharp capital flight out of Korea into major stocks in the US in the past several years, especially into the MAG7...

Douglas Kim

Netskope IPO Preview: A Hot Cybersecurity Play Is On Deck

​VC-backed cybersecurity company Netskope Inc. is expected to IPO in September. I have a positive view of upcoming offering and expect a strong...

Andrei Zakharov

As GPT-5 gets an underwhelming reception, token costs for OpenAI remain high even at scale. The company is looking at $115B in projected losses...

VC-backed cybersecurity company Netskope Inc. is expected to IPO in September. I have a positive view of upcoming offering and expect a strong...