Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Revenue up 18% YoY. Cloud revenue up 26%. Commercial remaining obligation up 51%. Commercial bookings up 112%. AI capacity up 80% this year, will roughly double over next two years. </li>
<li>For a company with $300+bn revenue, that’s impressive. Slight irritant: $4bn loss on OpenAI in a quarter, 13% of net income gone. Is that the price of top line growth?</li>
<li>The stock is trading at 29x forward EPS, Cloud &amp; AI revenues are accelerating, but profits incl OpenAI loss are probably very thin. The cash cow will come years later. </li>
</ul>


Revenue up 18% YoY. Cloud revenue up 26%. Commercial remaining obligation up 51%. Commercial bookings up 112%. AI capacity up 80% this year, will roughly double over next two years. 
For a company with $300+bn revenue, that’s impressive. Slight irritant: $4bn loss on OpenAI in a quarter, 13% of net income gone. Is that the price of top line growth?
The stock is trading at 29x forward EPS, Cloud &amp; AI revenues are accelerating, but profits incl OpenAI loss are probably very thin. The cash cow will come years later. 


MSFT 1Q26 (Sept-25): A Huge Quarter. AI Demand Is Accelerating

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Samsung and SK hynix are projecting $263 billion in combined net cash by year-end, intensifying pressure to move beyond 50% free-cash-flow payout targets.</li>
<li>Customer deposits and price floors underwrite new capacity, significantly improving demand visibility and weakening the traditional cycle-risk argument for holding massive excess cash.</li>
<li>While LTAs de-risk memory, capital demands remain high. Samsung’s foundry requires heavy investment, and both firms face potential supply-chain contingencies at their Chinese fabs.</li>
</ul>


Samsung and SK hynix are projecting $263 billion in combined net cash by year-end, intensifying pressure to move beyond 50% free-cash-flow payout targets.
Customer deposits and price floors underwrite new capacity, significantly improving demand visibility and weakening the traditional cycle-risk argument for holding massive excess cash.
While LTAs de-risk memory, capital demands remain high. Samsung’s foundry requires heavy investment, and both firms face potential supply-chain contingencies at their Chinese fabs.


[Memory Q2: Part 2] The Contract-Backed Cycle and the Cash Mountain

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/space-exploration-technologies-corp-spacex" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33284:1" rel="noopener">SpaceX (SPCX US)</a> released its maiden earnings announcement, and the market is unimpressed.  Although there were some estimate beats, the focus remains on the enormous capex and cash-draining AI business.
</li>
<li>The company is due to release large tranches of shares to the market over the next few months, beginning on August 6th, posing a major risk to the share price.</li>
<li>SpaceX debt, although rated Investment Grade, trades like junk in the market, resulting in substantial losses for its investors since the IPO in June.</li>
</ul>



SpaceX (SPCX US) released its maiden earnings announcement, and the market is unimpressed.  Although there were some estimate beats, the focus remains on the enormous capex and cash-draining AI business.

The company is due to release large tranches of shares to the market over the next few months, beginning on August 6th, posing a major risk to the share price.
SpaceX debt, although rated Investment Grade, trades like junk in the market, resulting in substantial losses for its investors since the IPO in June.


Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

<ul>
<li>We tracked AI models, infrastructure, and M&amp;A this week as OpenAI cut Luna pricing and Chinese models kept cost pressure visible.</li>
<li>Zhipu returned GLM Coding Plan at higher prices. DeepSeek V4 Flash, Kimi K3 and MiniMax H3 carried the model-launch week.</li>
<li>Anthropic logged safety incidents and open-weight policy. Nvidia backed SSI and discussed OpenAI data-center financing.</li>
</ul>


We tracked AI models, infrastructure, and M&amp;A this week as OpenAI cut Luna pricing and Chinese models kept cost pressure visible.
Zhipu returned GLM Coding Plan at higher prices. DeepSeek V4 Flash, Kimi K3 and MiniMax H3 carried the model-launch week.
Anthropic logged safety incidents and open-weight policy. Nvidia backed SSI and discussed OpenAI data-center financing.


This Week in AI (Jul 26-Aug 1): DeepSeek V4 Flash, OpenAI Cuts Luna Prices

<ul>
<li>Anthropic faces a potential "Down Round" in its IPO slated for later this year.  The dynamics of the AI sector have deteriorated substantially since the company announced its IPO filing.</li>
<li>The private market valuation, based on funding rounds, tripled between February and May this year, adding roughly $600 billion to its market value. The company participates in AI circular financing.</li>
<li>Valuation compression, competition from Chinese open-source models, regulatory challenges, slowing token usage, and market share loss are pre-IPO challenges for the company.</li>
</ul>


Anthropic faces a potential "Down Round" in its IPO slated for later this year.  The dynamics of the AI sector have deteriorated substantially since the company announced its IPO filing.
The private market valuation, based on funding rounds, tripled between February and May this year, adding roughly $600 billion to its market value. The company participates in AI circular financing.
Valuation compression, competition from Chinese open-source models, regulatory challenges, slowing token usage, and market share loss are pre-IPO challenges for the company.


ANTHROPIC IPO: Will Investors Accept a Down Round?

United States

Microsoft Corporation operates as a software company. The Company offers applications, extra cloud storage, and advanced security solutions. Microsoft serves customers worldwide.

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Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)

MSFT 1Q26 (Sept-25): A Huge Quarter. AI Demand Is Accelerating

Company sees impressive revenue growth, particularly in cloud and AI sectors. $4bn loss on OpenAI. Profitability and future cash flow will come...

Nicolas Baratte

[Memory Q2: Part 2] The Contract-Backed Cycle and the Cash Mountain

As AI changes memory contracting via LTAs, the traditional cyclical excuse for hoarding cash is weakening among investors, especially as Samsung...

Mint Finance

SpaceX Hits the Moon.... Literally !!

SpaceX released its maiden earnings announcement, and the market is unimpressed. Although there were some estimate beats, the focus remains on the...

David Mudd

This Week in AI (Jul 26-Aug 1): DeepSeek V4 Flash, OpenAI Cuts Luna Prices

This week in AI: GPT-5.6 Luna price -80%; DeepSeek V4 Flash beta ships; Zhipu GLM returns at higher prices; Kimi K3 opens weights.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ANTHROPIC IPO: Will Investors Accept a Down Round?

Anthropic faces a potential "Down Round" in its IPO slated for later this year. The dynamics of the AI sector have deteriorated substantially...

David Mudd

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Market Cap (USDm)

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MSFT 1Q26 (Sept-25): A Huge Quarter. AI Demand Is Accelerating

​Company sees impressive revenue growth, particularly in cloud and AI sectors. $4bn loss on OpenAI. Profitability and future cash flow will come...

Nicolas Baratte

[Memory Q2: Part 2] The Contract-Backed Cycle and the Cash Mountain

As AI changes memory contracting via LTAs, the traditional cyclical excuse for hoarding cash is weakening among investors, especially as Samsung...

Mint Finance

SpaceX Hits the Moon.... Literally !!

SpaceX released its maiden earnings announcement, and the market is unimpressed. Although there were some estimate beats, the focus remains on the...

David Mudd

This Week in AI (Jul 26-Aug 1): DeepSeek V4 Flash, OpenAI Cuts Luna Prices

This week in AI: GPT-5.6 Luna price -80%; DeepSeek V4 Flash beta ships; Zhipu GLM returns at higher prices; Kimi K3 opens weights.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ANTHROPIC IPO: Will Investors Accept a Down Round?

Anthropic faces a potential "Down Round" in its IPO slated for later this year. The dynamics of the AI sector have deteriorated substantially...

David Mudd

Company sees impressive revenue growth, particularly in cloud and AI sectors. $4bn loss on OpenAI. Profitability and future cash flow will come...