Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish and we see the market in the midst of a significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October.</li>
<li>We continue to expect support at 20-day MAs on $SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), while support at current levels or the 50-day MA is likely on the Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>Market dynamics continue to improve, giving us confidence that this bull run is likely to go at least another month into mid-January, and quite likely beyond.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish and we see the market in the midst of a significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October.
We continue to expect support at 20-day MAs on $SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), while support at current levels or the 50-day MA is likely on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
Market dynamics continue to improve, giving us confidence that this bull run is likely to go at least another month into mid-January, and quite likely beyond.


Growth Leading This EOY Rally; Expect More Upside. PHLX Semis $SOXX With a Bullish 5-Month Reversal

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avepoint-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37131:1" rel="noopener">AvePoint (AVPT US)</a> , a global provider of data security, governance, and resilience, aims to raise around US$300m in its Singapore secondary listing.</li>
<li>As of FY24, AP had over 25,000 customers who rely on its Confidence Platform to prepare, secure, and optimize their critical data across environments.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.</li>
</ul>



AvePoint (AVPT US) , a global provider of data security, governance, and resilience, aims to raise around US$300m in its Singapore secondary listing.
As of FY24, AP had over 25,000 customers who rely on its Confidence Platform to prepare, secure, and optimize their critical data across environments.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.


AvePoint SGX Secondary Listing - Strong Growth and Large Client Base but Unclear Metrics

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We hosted a conference call with Elan Microelectronics management; We view the company as a Structural Long position for the AI PC upgrade cycle.</li>
<li>From the company's perspective, significant impact from AI PC demand will come but not until 4Q24E or 1H25E. However, supply chain excess inventory improved and prepping for upcycle.</li>
<li>An estimated 90% of AI PC models launched at CES 2024 use Elan's products in their design; Elan well positioned for the upcycle and entrenching its position. Maintain Structural Long.</li>
</ul>


We hosted a conference call with Elan Microelectronics management; We view the company as a Structural Long position for the AI PC upgrade cycle.
From the company's perspective, significant impact from AI PC demand will come but not until 4Q24E or 1H25E. However, supply chain excess inventory improved and prepping for upcycle.
An estimated 90% of AI PC models launched at CES 2024 use Elan's products in their design; Elan well positioned for the upcycle and entrenching its position. Maintain Structural Long.


TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

<ul>
<li>Branded PC makers' shares have been mostly lower in April, however Intel and Microsoft developments are providing strong signals for a future PC upgrade cycle into AI PCs.</li>
<li>Over 60% of Fortune 500 companies are now using Microsoft's CoPilot AI assistant; Intel expects the industry to exceed its prior forecast for AI PC shipments in 2024E.</li>
<li>CoPilot is the killer app that will trigger a global enterprise PC upgrade cycle; The next generation of CoPilot will be an edge AI app that will require powerful hardware.</li>
</ul>


Branded PC makers' shares have been mostly lower in April, however Intel and Microsoft developments are providing strong signals for a future PC upgrade cycle into AI PCs.
Over 60% of Fortune 500 companies are now using Microsoft's CoPilot AI assistant; Intel expects the industry to exceed its prior forecast for AI PC shipments in 2024E.
CoPilot is the killer app that will trigger a global enterprise PC upgrade cycle; The next generation of CoPilot will be an edge AI app that will require powerful hardware.


PC Monitor: The Next Version of MSFT CoPilot Will Be the Killer App for a Global AI PC Upgrade Cycle

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul>
<li>"It is so much cheaper to do simulations than real experiments, so much more flexible in testing...we can even do things which cannot be done in any lab… So it’s inevitable this trend will continue for some time." - Richard Hamming, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Art-Doing-Science-Engineering-Learning/dp/1732265178" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Art of Doing Science and Engineering</a>.</li>
<li>Richard Hamming said this to the President of Bell Labs in the 1950s. And I think this insight rings more accurate than ever. Simulations of reality are much more flexible and cheaper than observing and interacting with reality.</li>
<li>I will assert that LLMs and “AI” are effectively the logical conclusion of this trend. A large language model is trained on the largest amount of data possible, often the entire crawlable Internet<a href="https://kili-technology.com/large-language-models-llms/9-open-sourced-datasets-for-training-large-language-models" target="_blank" rel="noopener">, all the books ever written, and so much more</a>.</li>
</ul>


"It is so much cheaper to do simulations than real experiments, so much more flexible in testing...we can even do things which cannot be done in any lab… So it’s inevitable this trend will continue for some time." - Richard Hamming, The Art of Doing Science and Engineering.
Richard Hamming said this to the President of Bell Labs in the 1950s. And I think this insight rings more accurate than ever. Simulations of reality are much more flexible and cheaper than observing and interacting with reality.
I will assert that LLMs and “AI” are effectively the logical conclusion of this trend. A large language model is trained on the largest amount of data possible, often the entire crawlable Internet, all the books ever written, and so much more.


United States

Microsoft Corporation operates as a software company. The Company offers applications, extra cloud storage, and advanced security solutions. Microsoft serves customers worldwide.

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Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)

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Vermilion Research

AvePoint SGX Secondary Listing - Strong Growth and Large Client Base but Unclear Metrics

AvePoint (AVPT US) , a global provider of data security, governance, and resilience, aims to raise around US$300m in its Singapore secondary listing.

Sumeet Singh

TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

PC Monitor: The Next Version of MSFT CoPilot Will Be the Killer App for a Global AI PC Upgrade Cycle

CoPilot, as an edge AI app, will drive a global PC upgrade cycle with its next-gen version requiring advanced hardware.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Jensen's World: Compressing Reality

Nvidia is pursuing a strategy of broadening its software distribution on one of the largest installed bases in the world.

Fabricated Knowledge

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Growth Leading This EOY Rally; Expect More Upside. PHLX Semis $SOXX With a Bullish 5-Month Reversal

Growth Leading This EOY Rally $MSFT $AAPL as Tech $XLK Breaks Out; Expect More Upside $ARKK $ARKW $ARKF $BITQ $WGMI. PHLX Semiconductor $SOXX With...

Vermilion Research

AvePoint SGX Secondary Listing - Strong Growth and Large Client Base but Unclear Metrics

AvePoint (AVPT US) , a global provider of data security, governance, and resilience, aims to raise around US$300m in its Singapore secondary listing.

Sumeet Singh

TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

​Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

PC Monitor: The Next Version of MSFT CoPilot Will Be the Killer App for a Global AI PC Upgrade Cycle

​CoPilot, as an edge AI app, will drive a global PC upgrade cycle with its next-gen version requiring advanced hardware.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Jensen's World: Compressing Reality

Nvidia is pursuing a strategy of broadening its software distribution on one of the largest installed bases in the world.

Fabricated Knowledge

Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...

CoPilot, as an edge AI app, will drive a global PC upgrade cycle with its next-gen version requiring advanced hardware.