Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Chubu Electric Power Co / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 12 additions to the S&amp;P Global Clean Energy Index for Asia. The changes were announced on 8 April and will be implemented at the close on 22 April.</li>
<li>Largest inflows are on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chubu-electric-power-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14574:1" rel="noopener">Chubu Electric Power</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-yangtze-power-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3210:1" rel="noopener">China Yangtze Power</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/energy-absolute-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10377:1" rel="noopener">Energy Absolute</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longi-green-energy-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12703:1" rel="noopener">LONGi Green Energy Technology</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ja-solar-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16597:1" rel="noopener">JA Solar Technology</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianjin-zhonghuan-semiconductor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6791:1" rel="noopener">Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sungrow-power-supply-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4255:1" rel="noopener">Sungrow Power Supply</a>.</li>
<li>The largest outflows are expected on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meridian-ener-partly-paid-sh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4327:1" rel="noopener">Meridian Energy (MEL NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contact-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13136:1" rel="noopener">Contact Energy (CEN NZ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinyi-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27808:1" rel="noopener">Xinyi Energy Holdings Ltd (3868 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


There are 12 additions to the S&amp;P Global Clean Energy Index for Asia. The changes were announced on 8 April and will be implemented at the close on 22 April.
Largest inflows are on Chubu Electric Power, China Yangtze Power, Adani Green Energy, Energy Absolute, LONGi Green Energy Technology, JA Solar Technology, Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor and Sungrow Power Supply.
The largest outflows are expected on Meridian Energy (MEL NZ), Contact Energy (CEN NZ) and Xinyi Energy Holdings Ltd (3868 HK). 


S&P Global Clean Energy Index: Changes for Asia & Impact

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<div>
<p>On the 14 March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tilt-renewables-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24371:1" rel="noopener">Tilt Renewables Ltd (TLT NZ)</a> <a href="http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TLT/369079/342312.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a binding agreement from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mighty-river-power" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9933:1" rel="noopener">Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY NZ)</a> and PowAR by way of a Scheme at NZ$7.80/share, or a 99% premium to the undisturbed price.  PowAR is a partnership between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agl-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:554:1" rel="noopener">AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)</a>, QIC, and Australia’s sovereign wealth fund.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Should the Scheme be approved, Tilt will sell its Australian assets to PowAR, and Mercury NZ would acquire the New Zealand assets. The Offer had the backing of Infratil and Mercury, holding 65.46% and 19.92% respectively.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>On the 16 April, Tilt <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02364436-3A565443?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it has amended the terms of the Scheme Implementation Agreement (SIA), such that PowAR/Mercury would now pay NZ$8.10/share. The SIA had also been amended to include the removal of provisions allowing Tilt to evaluate any competing proposal to the Scheme or to terminate the SIA if a superior proposal were to be received.</p>
<p>Given the SIA cannot be terminated in such circumstances, neither Mercury nor Infratil are released from their voting commitments. This means that the emergence of a superior alternative transaction is remote unless the SIA terminates due to reasons such as a condition not being fulfilled.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>The Scheme Booklet is now <a href="http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TLT/373692/348047.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>. The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 14 July, with an expected implementation date of the 3 August.</p>
<div>
<p>The Independent Advisor has concluded the Scheme was "reasonable". </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
</div>
</div>


On the 14 March, Tilt Renewables Ltd (TLT NZ) announced a binding agreement from Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY NZ) and PowAR by way of a Scheme at NZ$7.80/share, or a 99% premium to the undisturbed price.  PowAR is a partnership between AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU), QIC, and Australia’s sovereign wealth fund.


Should the Scheme be approved, Tilt will sell its Australian assets to PowAR, and Mercury NZ would acquire the New Zealand assets. The Offer had the backing of Infratil and Mercury, holding 65.46% and 19.92% respectively.


On the 16 April, Tilt announced it has amended the terms of the Scheme Implementation Agreement (SIA), such that PowAR/Mercury would now pay NZ$8.10/share. The SIA had also been amended to include the removal of provisions allowing Tilt to evaluate any competing proposal to the Scheme or to terminate the SIA if a superior proposal were to be received.
Given the SIA cannot be terminated in such circumstances, neither Mercury nor Infratil are released from their voting commitments. This means that the emergence of a superior alternative transaction is remote unless the SIA terminates due to reasons such as a condition not being fulfilled.


The Scheme Booklet is now out. The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 14 July, with an expected implementation date of the 3 August.

The Independent Advisor has concluded the Scheme was "reasonable". 


More below the fold.



Tilt Renewables: Scheme Booklet Out. EGM Firmed

<p>Back on the 14 March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tilt-renewables-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24371:1" rel="noopener">Tilt Renewables Ltd (TLT NZ)</a> <a href="http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TLT/369079/342312.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a binding agreement from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mighty-river-power" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9933:1" rel="noopener">Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY NZ)</a> and PowAR by way of a Scheme at NZ$7.80/share, or a 99% premium to the undisturbed price.  PowAR is a partnership between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agl-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:554:1" rel="noopener">AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)</a>, QIC, and Australia’s sovereign wealth fund.</p>
<div>
<p>Should the Scheme be successful, Tilt will sell its Australian assets to PowAR, and Mercury NZ acquires the New Zealand assets, including all future development operations. The Offer has the backing of Infratil and Mercury, holding 65.5% and 19.92% respectively.</p>
<p>After entering a <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02363756_NPS-3A565326?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">trading halt</a> early last Friday, Tilt <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02364436-3A565443?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it has amended the terms of the Scheme Implementation Agreement (SIA), such that PowAR/Mercury will now pay NZ$8.10/share</p>
<p>In addition to the increased price, the SIA has been amended to remove provisions allowing Tilt to evaluate any “<em>competing proposal giving greater certainty to all parties and Tilt shareholders that the transaction will complete by August</em>."</p>
<p>AGL also <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02364591-2A1293172?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> Tilt had received a competing proposal from a third party. Reportedly Canadian pension fund CDPQ made a bid of NZ$8/share Offer, and that Tilt tapped the consortium to match or beat that proposal.</p>
<p>The prospect of a last-minute gate-crasher now appears diminished. More below the fold.</p>
</div>

Back on the 14 March, Tilt Renewables Ltd (TLT NZ) announced a binding agreement from Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY NZ) and PowAR by way of a Scheme at NZ$7.80/share, or a 99% premium to the undisturbed price.  PowAR is a partnership between AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU), QIC, and Australia’s sovereign wealth fund.

Should the Scheme be successful, Tilt will sell its Australian assets to PowAR, and Mercury NZ acquires the New Zealand assets, including all future development operations. The Offer has the backing of Infratil and Mercury, holding 65.5% and 19.92% respectively.
After entering a trading halt early last Friday, Tilt announced it has amended the terms of the Scheme Implementation Agreement (SIA), such that PowAR/Mercury will now pay NZ$8.10/share
In addition to the increased price, the SIA has been amended to remove provisions allowing Tilt to evaluate any “competing proposal giving greater certainty to all parties and Tilt shareholders that the transaction will complete by August."
AGL also said Tilt had received a competing proposal from a third party. Reportedly Canadian pension fund CDPQ made a bid of NZ$8/share Offer, and that Tilt tapped the consortium to match or beat that proposal.
The prospect of a last-minute gate-crasher now appears diminished. More below the fold.


Tilt Renewables: Mercury/PowAR's Bump Heads Off Third-Party Bidders

<div>
<p>After <a href="http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IFT/364532/336831.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcing</a> a strategic review of its 65.5% shareholding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tilt-renewables-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24371:1" rel="noopener">Tilt Renewables (TLT NZ)</a> on the 7 December, a day later, renewable energy specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infratil-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:596:1" rel="noopener">Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ)</a> received a non-binding Offer, by way of Scheme, from AustralianSuper, Australia's largest superannuation fund. The NZ$7.43/share Offer was a 22.2% premium to Infratil's last close, and a lifetime high. This was discussed in <em><a href="https://skr.ma/RKPFp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Infratil (IFT NZ): Big Super's Infrastructure Grab</a>.</em></p>
<p>On the 4 February, Tilt <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02337662-3A560626?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> it has received a number of non-binding indicative proposals.</p>
</div>
<div>
<h3>The New News</h3>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tilt-renewables-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24371:1" rel="noopener"></a>Tilt has <a href="http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TLT/369079/342312.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a binding agreement from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mighty-river-power" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9933:1" rel="noopener">Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY NZ)</a> and PowAR by way of a Scheme. PowAR is a partnership between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agl-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:554:1" rel="noopener">AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)</a> and QIC on behalf of its managed clients, the Queensland Government Insurance Fund and the Future Fund, Australia's sovereign wealth fund.</p>
<p>Under the proposal, Mercury will acquire Tilt’s New Zealand assets and, following that, PowAR will acquire 100% of the outstanding shares in Tilt for NZ$7.80/share, or a 99% premium to the undisturbed price. </p>
<p>Infratil and Mercury, holding 65.5% and 19.92% respectively, have agreed to vote in favour of the Scheme. Therefore the requisite Tilt shareholders’ approval is certain to be secured.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
</div>


After announcing a strategic review of its 65.5% shareholding in Tilt Renewables (TLT NZ) on the 7 December, a day later, renewable energy specialist Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ) received a non-binding Offer, by way of Scheme, from AustralianSuper, Australia's largest superannuation fund. The NZ$7.43/share Offer was a 22.2% premium to Infratil's last close, and a lifetime high. This was discussed in Infratil (IFT NZ): Big Super's Infrastructure Grab.
On the 4 February, Tilt said it has received a number of non-binding indicative proposals.


The New News
Tilt has announced a binding agreement from Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY NZ) and PowAR by way of a Scheme. PowAR is a partnership between AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU) and QIC on behalf of its managed clients, the Queensland Government Insurance Fund and the Future Fund, Australia's sovereign wealth fund.
Under the proposal, Mercury will acquire Tilt’s New Zealand assets and, following that, PowAR will acquire 100% of the outstanding shares in Tilt for NZ$7.80/share, or a 99% premium to the undisturbed price. 
Infratil and Mercury, holding 65.5% and 19.92% respectively, have agreed to vote in favour of the Scheme. Therefore the requisite Tilt shareholders’ approval is certain to be secured.


More below the fold.


Tilt Renewables: Mercury/PowAr's Big Blow

Director | Exposing Creative Accounting, Bucephalus Research Partnership

Robert Medd

Director | Exposing Creative Accounting

Exposing Creative Accounting

Bucephalus Research Partnership

Bucephalus Research Partnership Limited. Exposing Creative Accounting.

At the Bucephalus Research Partnership (BRP) we analyse financial statements using our accountant's practical experience and our own quantitative algorithms for corporate governance, accounting risk and peer performance.

Our thematic research refines our unique algorithms while our single stock research focuses on examples where we discover a significant gap between published accounts and business reality.

​Bucephalus Research Partnership:
- Is an independent fee-based research service
- Does not take proprietary positions, long or short
- Does not solicit business or fees from the corporates we review

Forensic Accounting

<p>The Bucephalus Idea Generator (BIG) picks stocks by combining our work on<strong> </strong><strong>Creative Accounting</strong> and our work on <strong>capex and valuation cycles</strong> to see which companies are forecast to generate extreme returns and/or are on extreme valuations. The model then creates performance outcomes to search for absolute and relative investment ideas.</p><p>We run the model every month to see what has changed and which companies are worthy of further investigation.</p><p></p><p><a href="https://www.buceph.com/bucephalus-idea-model-604975.html" target="_blank">Click here </a>to download a sample company overview from the Bucephalus Idea Generator.</p>

The Bucephalus Idea Generator (BIG) picks stocks by combining our work on Creative Accounting and our work on capex and valuation cycles to see which companies are forecast to generate extreme returns and/or are on extreme valuations. The model then creates performance outcomes to search for absolute and relative investment ideas.We run the model every month to see what has changed and which companies are worthy of further investigation.Click here to download a sample company overview from the Bucephalus Idea Generator.

Extreme Valuations: Global Stock Ideas Using the BORUC Yield

New Zealand

Mercury NZ Ltd provides utility services. The Company generates and supplies electricity from hydro, geothermal, gas-fired, and wind power stations, as well as owns and manages bio-energy power plants. Mighty River Power serves customers throughout New Zealand.

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Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY NZ)

S&P Global Clean Energy Index: Changes for Asia & Impact

There are 12 adds for Asia as a part of the S&P Global Clean Energy Index rebal, plus other changes. There have not been any big price moves since...

Brian Freitas

Tilt Renewables: Scheme Booklet Out. EGM Firmed

Done deal and trading tight at a 1.0%/7.2% gross/annualised spread. Given the spread and Tilt's low liquidity, this insight is bearish.

David Blennerhassett

Tilt Renewables: Mercury/PowAR's Bump Heads Off Third-Party Bidders

Trading tight at a 1.8%/6.0% gross/annualised spread. You could buy here for the spread, and the outside chance a superior Offer does indeed emerge.

David Blennerhassett

Tilt Renewables: Mercury/PowAr's Big Blow

This is a done deal, and trading tight at a 2.5%/6.1% gross/annualised spread, assuming five months to complete. Given the low float - ~14% - Tilt...

David Blennerhassett

Extreme Valuations: Global Stock Ideas Using the BORUC Yield

The Bucephalus Idea Generator (BIG) picks stocks by combining our work on Creative Accounting and our work on capex and valuation cycles to see...

Bucephalus Research Partnership

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