New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>After almost two years of negotiation, the deal has been done, with NZAS set to be New Zealand's largest electricity consumer for the foreseeable future.</li><li>It is a positive for the sector in many different ways, with the primary upside being the certainty that the deal provides.</li><li>Relative to our expectations, CEN, MCY and MNW were the winners from the deal, with MEL and GNE slight losers. </li></ul>

After almost two years of negotiation, the deal has been done, with NZAS set to be New Zealand's largest electricity consumer for the foreseeable future.It is a positive for the sector in many different ways, with the primary upside being the certainty that the deal provides.Relative to our expectations, CEN, MCY and MNW were the winners from the deal, with MEL and GNE slight losers. 

Electricity Sector - NZAS Powers On — The Deal Is Done

<ul><li>Electricity demand growth has continued to surge, helping to keep wholesale electricity prices elevated despite the welcome top-up of hydro storage lakes that now sit close to average.</li><li>It was also a good month for NZAS, with the spike in aluminium prices a timely boost as Rio Tinto closes in on making a decision over the future of the smelter.</li><li>Following our report Demanding Some Attention — Sector Upgraded published 29 April 2024, which lifted sector target prices on average +18%, we upgraded the rating of three stocks. </li></ul>

Electricity demand growth has continued to surge, helping to keep wholesale electricity prices elevated despite the welcome top-up of hydro storage lakes that now sit close to average.It was also a good month for NZAS, with the spike in aluminium prices a timely boost as Rio Tinto closes in on making a decision over the future of the smelter.Following our report Demanding Some Attention — Sector Upgraded published 29 April 2024, which lifted sector target prices on average +18%, we upgraded the rating of three stocks. 

Power Points - Demand Powers On — May 2024

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Mercury's (MCY) 3Q24 operating metrics are best described as steady, with the benefits of its new wind farms evident as they offset softer (but still above average) hydro generation.</li><li>Pricing across all product categories remains strong and our upwards forecast movements is due to a combination of a higher forward wholesale electricity price, and gas and telco prices rising faster than expected.</li><li>We raise our target price +15cps (+2.9%) to NZ$5.35, but retain our UNDERPERFORM rating as MCY remains expensive. </li></ul>

Mercury's (MCY) 3Q24 operating metrics are best described as steady, with the benefits of its new wind farms evident as they offset softer (but still above average) hydro generation.Pricing across all product categories remains strong and our upwards forecast movements is due to a combination of a higher forward wholesale electricity price, and gas and telco prices rising faster than expected.We raise our target price +15cps (+2.9%) to NZ$5.35, but retain our UNDERPERFORM rating as MCY remains expensive. 

Mercury - 3Q24 Op Stats — Favourable Tailwinds External Inbox Updates

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a> has entered a transaction implementation deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/electric-power-development-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:292:1" rel="noopener">Electric Power Development C (9513 JP)</a> for a scheme (A$0.275) and an off-market takeover offer (A$0.270). </li>
<li>Skip could vote against the scheme due to the low 10% premium to its 2022 offer and Genex’s operational capacity rising by 2.7x by the end of 2024.</li>
<li>The likely scenario is that J-POWER succeeds with its takeover offer. At the last close, the gross spread of the scheme and takeover offer was 3.8% and 1.9%, respectively.   </li>
</ul>



Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU) has entered a transaction implementation deed with Electric Power Development C (9513 JP) for a scheme (A$0.275) and an off-market takeover offer (A$0.270). 
Skip could vote against the scheme due to the low 10% premium to its 2022 offer and Genex’s operational capacity rising by 2.7x by the end of 2024.
The likely scenario is that J-POWER succeeds with its takeover offer. At the last close, the gross spread of the scheme and takeover offer was 3.8% and 1.9%, respectively.   


Genex Power (GNX AU): J-Power’s Binding Proposal as Skip’s Intentions Remain Unknown

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>March 2024 was a good month for Manawa Energy (MNW), electricity demand, and solar developers. It wasn’t such a good month for EV dealers.</li><li>MNW was the strongest performing electricity stock in March 2024 following its guidance upgrade.</li><li>Strong electricity demand growth continues and now appears to be a trend which is positive for medium-term pricing, although continued big falls in solar panel prices will help offset some of those pricing effects. </li></ul></div></div></div></div>

March 2024 was a good month for Manawa Energy (MNW), electricity demand, and solar developers. It wasn’t such a good month for EV dealers.MNW was the strongest performing electricity stock in March 2024 following its guidance upgrade.Strong electricity demand growth continues and now appears to be a trend which is positive for medium-term pricing, although continued big falls in solar panel prices will help offset some of those pricing effects. 

Power Points - Demand Is Trending Upwards — April 2024

New Zealand

Mercury NZ Ltd provides utility services. The Company generates and supplies electricity from hydro, geothermal, gas-fired, and wind power stations, as well as owns and manages bio-energy power plants. Mighty River Power serves customers throughout New Zealand.

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Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY NZ)

Electricity Sector - NZAS Powers On — The Deal Is Done

After almost two years of negotiation, the deal has been done, with NZAS set to be New Zealand's largest electricity consumer for the foreseeable...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points - Demand Powers On — May 2024

Electricity demand growth has continued to surge, helping to keep wholesale electricity prices elevated despite the welcome top-up of hydro storage...

Forsyth Barr

Mercury - 3Q24 Op Stats — Favourable Tailwinds External Inbox Updates

Mercury's (MCY) 3Q24 operating metrics are best described as steady, with the benefits of its new wind farms evident as they offset softer (but...

Forsyth Barr

Genex Power (GNX AU): J-Power’s Binding Proposal as Skip’s Intentions Remain Unknown

Skip could derail the scheme vote. The likely scenario is that J-POWER succeeds with its takeover offer. At the last close, the gross spread of the...

Arun George

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