Managing Director, Leaf & Ledger Limited

Evan Campbell, CFA

Managing Director

Leaf & Ledger Limited

Formed in 2024, Leaf & Ledger is a European advisory and research firm serving institutional investors and managers. We focus on real assets and private markets, with public-market read-throughs where material. Our work emphasises valuation signals, market structure, and execution topics that translate technical assessment into underwriting and strategy.

Insight That Moves Capital

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
 Release sparks sell-off: Vietnam’s government inspectorate released findings October 17th. Despite widespread anticipation of the findings, Vietnamese equities were down sharply following the release.</li>
<li>
 Fault lines and risk nodes: 5 listed banks, Masan entities, T&amp;T Group, project vehicles, and Novaland affiliates. Issues include disclosure failures, off-plan proceeds use, arrears, and single-buyer concentrations.</li>
<li>
 Signal and policy path: Expect a stricter rulebook and more active supervision. The core system remains intact, but governance discounts rise, and issuance windows narrow as controls are rebuilt.</li>
</ul>



 Release sparks sell-off: Vietnam’s government inspectorate released findings October 17th. Despite widespread anticipation of the findings, Vietnamese equities were down sharply following the release.

 Fault lines and risk nodes: 5 listed banks, Masan entities, T&amp;T Group, project vehicles, and Novaland affiliates. Issues include disclosure failures, off-plan proceeds use, arrears, and single-buyer concentrations.

 Signal and policy path: Expect a stricter rulebook and more active supervision. The core system remains intact, but governance discounts rise, and issuance windows narrow as controls are rebuilt.


Vietnam Equities: GI Bond Probe Triggers 8% Index Slide

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our focus on earnings delivery continues, this time turning to ASEAN. We screen stocks with consistent EPS estimate upgrades, strong EPS growth forecasts, net debt/equity below 1 and PEG&lt;1.3x.</li>
<li>In the six ASEAN markets, 10 stocks satisfy our criteria - four from Vietnam, two each from Indonesia and Thailand and one each from Singapore and Malaysia.</li>
<li>Nine of the ten stocks appreciated sharply over the past 3 and 6 months. Over the past 12 months 7 stocks appreciated and three declined.</li>
</ul>


Our focus on earnings delivery continues, this time turning to ASEAN. We screen stocks with consistent EPS estimate upgrades, strong EPS growth forecasts, net debt/equity below 1 and PEG&lt;1.3x.
In the six ASEAN markets, 10 stocks satisfy our criteria - four from Vietnam, two each from Indonesia and Thailand and one each from Singapore and Malaysia.
Nine of the ten stocks appreciated sharply over the past 3 and 6 months. Over the past 12 months 7 stocks appreciated and three declined.


Earnings Delivery, Reasonable Valuations, Healthy Balance Sheet - Ten Stocks in ASEAN

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Vietnam Technological & Commer / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We maintain Techcombank as our top pick in the Vietnamese banks, given its attractive valuations, solid pre and post provision returns and its fortress balance sheet</li>
<li>We add MBBank to the buy list with its attractive valuations, premium ROE and sound balance sheet metrics; we are neutral on Vietcombank</li>
<li>VP Bank remains one to watch; its NPL ratio has worsened further to March 2023 and it is the negative outlier of the peer group on credit quality</li>
</ul>


We maintain Techcombank as our top pick in the Vietnamese banks, given its attractive valuations, solid pre and post provision returns and its fortress balance sheet
We add MBBank to the buy list with its attractive valuations, premium ROE and sound balance sheet metrics; we are neutral on Vietcombank
VP Bank remains one to watch; its NPL ratio has worsened further to March 2023 and it is the negative outlier of the peer group on credit quality


Vietnamese Banks Screener; Adding MBBank to Our Core Pick Techcombank

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>ROA appears to be understated dramatically, with expansion likely in coming quarters</li>
<li>Credit costs have been rising even in FY21, and this is unusual for most banks</li>
<li>Funding cost improvement can be biggest surprise, as term deposits mature</li>
</ul>


ROA appears to be understated dramatically, with expansion likely in coming quarters
Credit costs have been rising even in FY21, and this is unusual for most banks
Funding cost improvement can be biggest surprise, as term deposits mature


Vietnam Maritime Commercial Joint Stock Bank / Equity Bottom-Up

Vietnam Maritime Commercial Joint Stock Bank

There are few banks anywhere reporting strong margins or better net interest income, with Vietnam as the most stand out exception. One bank that is relatively unknown, is seeing some of the best profit expansion, and it does not appear to have run its course.

There are few banks anywhere reporting strong margins or better net interest income, with Vietnam as the most stand out exception. One bank that is relatively unknown, is seeing some of the best profit expansion, and it does not appear to have run its course.

Vietnam

Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank offers commercial banking services.  The Bank provides services in the areas of personal banking, corporate banking, financial banking, and e-banking.  Military Commercial's services include savings accounts, money lending, money transfers, foreign exchange, and money markets.

Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank (MBB VN)

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Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank (MBB VN)

Vietnam Equities: GI Bond Probe Triggers 8% Index Slide

Vietnam's government inspectorate private debt probe release sparks equity sell-off, as governance concerns in listed banks and companies signal...

Evan Campbell, CFA

Earnings Delivery, Reasonable Valuations, Healthy Balance Sheet - Ten Stocks in ASEAN

We identify stocks in ASEAN with consistent EPS est upgrades, strong growth forecasts, low debt/equity, and PEG<1.3x. Ten stocks meet the...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Vietnamese Banks Screener; Adding MBBank to Our Core Pick Techcombank

We maintain value play TCB as our top pick in the Vietnamese banks, adding MBBank to the buy list with its attractive valuations and premium ROE;...

Victor Galliano

HDB - ROA Expansion Can Surprise

HDB's ROA can expand dramatically in coming quarters, with lowering credit costs, lowering funding costs from maturing fixed deposits, and with...

Daniel Tabbush

Vietnam – Transformational Profit

Ongoing transformation at this bank, away from term deposits, toward consumer loans, with better ALM and improved credit metrics, can see an...

Daniel Tabbush

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Vietnam Equities: GI Bond Probe Triggers 8% Index Slide

​Vietnam's government inspectorate private debt probe release sparks equity sell-off, as governance concerns in listed banks and companies signal...

Evan Campbell, CFA

Earnings Delivery, Reasonable Valuations, Healthy Balance Sheet - Ten Stocks in ASEAN

​We identify stocks in ASEAN with consistent EPS est upgrades, strong growth forecasts, low debt/equity, and PEG<1.3x. Ten stocks meet the...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Vietnamese Banks Screener; Adding MBBank to Our Core Pick Techcombank

We maintain value play TCB as our top pick in the Vietnamese banks, adding MBBank to the buy list with its attractive valuations and premium ROE;...

Victor Galliano

HDB - ROA Expansion Can Surprise

HDB's ROA can expand dramatically in coming quarters, with lowering credit costs, lowering funding costs from maturing fixed deposits, and with...

Daniel Tabbush

Vietnam – Transformational Profit

Ongoing transformation at this bank, away from term deposits, toward consumer loans, with better ALM and improved credit metrics, can see an...

Daniel Tabbush

Vietnam's government inspectorate private debt probe release sparks equity sell-off, as governance concerns in listed banks and companies signal...

We identify stocks in ASEAN with consistent EPS est upgrades, strong growth forecasts, low debt/equity, and PEG<1.3x. Ten stocks meet the...