IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Mimasu Semiconductor Industry / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mimasu-semiconductor-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5531:1" rel="noopener">Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP)</a> recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-etsu-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4481:1" rel="noopener">Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)</a> at JPY3,700, a 14.4% and 35.4% premium to the last close and undisturbed price, respectively. </li>
<li>The pre-condition, which cannot be waived, is approval under the competition laws of Japan and Taiwan. The tender offer is expected to start in late July.</li>
<li>While the offer is below the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range and the requested price, it is 7.7% higher than the all-time high of JPY3,435. This is done. </li>
</ul>



Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP) recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) at JPY3,700, a 14.4% and 35.4% premium to the last close and undisturbed price, respectively. 
The pre-condition, which cannot be waived, is approval under the competition laws of Japan and Taiwan. The tender offer is expected to start in late July.
While the offer is below the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range and the requested price, it is 7.7% higher than the all-time high of JPY3,435. This is done. 


Mimasu Semiconductor (8155 JP): Shin-Etsu (4063 JP)’s Pre-Conditional Tender Offer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The CSRC has announced five capital market cooperation measures for the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs including  RMB dual counters and REITs. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s current implied stub value and simple ratio are both highly elevated.</li>
<li>A simple <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>model says "this doesn't present me with enough upside to warrant it unless I am also really bullish <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>."</li>
</ul>


The CSRC has announced five capital market cooperation measures for the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs including  RMB dual counters and REITs. 

Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s current implied stub value and simple ratio are both highly elevated.
A simple Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)model says "this doesn't present me with enough upside to warrant it unless I am also really bullish Oriental Land (4661 JP)."


Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

<ul>
<li>Tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this week, being <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mimasu-semiconductor-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5531:1" rel="noopener">Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP)</a>'s Tender Offer. There's also <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a>'s unsolicited Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anglo-american-plc-04f6cda9-c726-4c33-8544-c5046bc74b29" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28603:1" rel="noopener">Anglo American (NGLOY US)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/roland-dg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10653:1" rel="noopener">Roland DG Corp (6789 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iclick-interactive-asia-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27314:1" rel="noopener">iClick Interactive Asia Group (ICLK US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this week, being Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP)'s Tender Offer. There's also BHP Group (BHP AU)'s unsolicited Offer for Anglo American (NGLOY US).
Key updates took place on: Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), CSR Ltd (CSR AU), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), Roland DG Corp (6789 JP), and iClick Interactive Asia Group (ICLK US).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Mimasu Semi, Tietto Minerals, CSR, CPMC, Roland DG, IClick Interactive

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-etsu-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4481:1" rel="noopener">Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)</a>, owner of a 44% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mimasu-semiconductor-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5531:1" rel="noopener">Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP)</a>, has announced a Tender Offer to take out minorities in Mimasu. </li>
<li>This is not surprising. They bought in 19 years ago, raised to 40+% 18yrs ago, then waited. Finally, we have a deal. But it's too cheap. </li>
<li>Shin-Etsu starts with ~45%, and crossholders and the chairman get it to 52%. Then they need a bit to get them to 67% but it should be straightforward.</li>
</ul>



Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP), owner of a 44% stake in Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP), has announced a Tender Offer to take out minorities in Mimasu. 
This is not surprising. They bought in 19 years ago, raised to 40+% 18yrs ago, then waited. Finally, we have a deal. But it's too cheap. 
Shin-Etsu starts with ~45%, and crossholders and the chairman get it to 52%. Then they need a bit to get them to 67% but it should be straightforward.


18yrs Later, Shin-Etsu Chem Takes Out Sub Mimasu Semi (8155) - Cheap But Whatchagonnado?

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/161/859/original/2020-09-27_06-54-19.png?1601157286" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="161859"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; Tables: Japan Analytics</div>BOTTOMING OUT? - The Japanese markets were only open for three days this week, however, of the manufacturing companies that reported several, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hirose-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13513:1" rel="noopener">Hirose Electric (6806 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngk-insulators-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12580:1" rel="noopener">NGK Insulators (5333 JP)</a> showed signs of a bottoming out in earnings momentum. While some domestic consumer-facing companies are seeing 'boomtown' conditions (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori (9843 JP)</a> below) a broader recovery is dependent on the manufacturing sectors of the economy. Although it is early in the reporting cycle, our three metrics that track results and revisions have improved in the last seven days. As the retail-dominated Febru0ry/May/August/November year-end cohort report over the next two week, we shall see further upticks.     • BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pair from Friday's announcements is home furnishing retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori (9843 JP)</a> and the leisure and travel company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h-i-s-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19311:1" rel="noopener">H.I.S. (9603 JP)</a> with a maximum-negative-scoring full-year forecast operating loss of ¥37 billion.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/161/862/original/2020-09-27_07-19-01.png?1601158772" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="161862"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/161/863/original/2020-09-27_07-20-58.png?1601158948" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="161863"></figure><hr>DAILY STATS<hr><div>9 Quarterly Results</div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
Results Score: 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative</li>
<li>
Average Results Score Change: -3.4 points</li>
<li>
Average % Change in Revenue: -24.6% Quarter YoY / -12.6% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -5.0ppt</li>
<li>
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 67%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div>17 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 55% Positive / 0% Neutral / 45% Negative</li>
<li>
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 53% Positive / 12% Neutral / 35% Negative</li>
<li>
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: +0.5 points</li>
</ul></div>

Source for all charts &amp; Tables: Japan AnalyticsBOTTOMING OUT? - The Japanese markets were only open for three days this week, however, of the manufacturing companies that reported several, such as Hirose Electric (6806 JP) and NGK Insulators (5333 JP) showed signs of a bottoming out in earnings momentum. While some domestic consumer-facing companies are seeing 'boomtown' conditions (see Nitori (9843 JP) below) a broader recovery is dependent on the manufacturing sectors of the economy. Although it is early in the reporting cycle, our three metrics that track results and revisions have improved in the last seven days. As the retail-dominated Febru0ry/May/August/November year-end cohort report over the next two week, we shall see further upticks.     • BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pair from Friday's announcements is home furnishing retailer Nitori (9843 JP) and the leisure and travel company H.I.S. (9603 JP) with a maximum-negative-scoring full-year forecast operating loss of ¥37 billion.DAILY STATS9 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative

Average Results Score Change: -3.4 points

Average % Change in Revenue: -24.6% Quarter YoY / -12.6% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -5.0ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 67%
17 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 55% Positive / 0% Neutral / 45% Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 53% Positive / 12% Neutral / 35% Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: +0.5 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/25 - HIS, Mimasu (& SUMCO), Nitori, SG, & Alps Alpine Revises▲!

Japan

MIMASU SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CO., LTD. processes semiconductor materials such as silicon and gallium.  The Company also designs, manufactures, and sells semiconductor material processing machinery and sells various kinds of measuring and testing devices.

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Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP)

Mimasu Semiconductor (8155 JP): Shin-Etsu (4063 JP)’s Pre-Conditional Tender Offer

While the offer is below the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range and the Board requested price, it is 7.7% higher than the all-time high. This...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Mimasu Semi, Tietto Minerals, CSR, CPMC, Roland DG, IClick Interactive

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

18yrs Later, Shin-Etsu Chem Takes Out Sub Mimasu Semi (8155) - Cheap But Whatchagonnado?

Shin-Etsu Chem is buying out sub Mimasu Semi 19yrs after buying in. It's too cheap, but it's an all-time high, and this company hasn't had activist...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/25 - HIS, Mimasu (& SUMCO), Nitori, SG, & Alps Alpine Revises▲!

• BEST WORST •

Campbell Gunn

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