Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a> and other shareholders voted against the Tianqi Lithium JV transaction for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/essential-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9645:1" rel="noopener">Essential Metals (ESS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/develop-global-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19413:1" rel="noopener">Develop Global (DVP AU)</a> swooped and announced a binding Scheme.</li>
<li>The all-scrip Scheme transaction has the backing of MinRes, who also owns a ~12.8% stake in Develop.</li>
<li>The Scheme Booklet is now out. Essential shareholders vote on the transaction on the 18 October, with implementation on the 6 November. The IE opines "not fair but reasonable". </li>
</ul>


After Mineral Resources (MIN AU) and other shareholders voted against the Tianqi Lithium JV transaction for Essential Metals (ESS AU), Develop Global (DVP AU) swooped and announced a binding Scheme.
The all-scrip Scheme transaction has the backing of MinRes, who also owns a ~12.8% stake in Develop.
The Scheme Booklet is now out. Essential shareholders vote on the transaction on the 18 October, with implementation on the 6 November. The IE opines "not fair but reasonable". 


Essential Metal: Shareholder Vote On 18th Oct. The IE Says Not Fair

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX</a> has been stuck in the 7000-7600 range for the past 2 years, with a brief dive to 6500 during the summer of 2022. </li>
<li>If we consider the bottom at 6411 in October 2022, the index may have started to build an uptrend since then, but failed repeatedly to breach past the 7600 barrier.</li>
<li>After a brief correction in August 2023, the index is currently rising, but soon it will encounter WEEKLY resistance that could hamper its chances of breaking out of its range.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX has been stuck in the 7000-7600 range for the past 2 years, with a brief dive to 6500 during the summer of 2022. 
If we consider the bottom at 6411 in October 2022, the index may have started to build an uptrend since then, but failed repeatedly to breach past the 7600 barrier.
After a brief correction in August 2023, the index is currently rising, but soon it will encounter WEEKLY resistance that could hamper its chances of breaking out of its range.


EQD | SP/ASX200 Index: Will It Break Out of Its Range?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a> has received a revised non-binding privatisation proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albemarle-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7678:1" rel="noopener">Albemarle Corp (ALB US)</a> at A$3.00 per share, a 20.0% premium to the previously rejected offer of A$2.50.</li>
<li>The revised offer is attractive compared to the Kathleen Valley Lithium Project’s NPV range, peer multiples and historical share prices. The offer price is final, barring a superior proposal.</li>
<li>Liontown has granted Albemarle a limited period of exclusive due diligence. The Board intends to recommend a binding proposal at A$3.00 per share. The retail vote could be a risk.</li>
</ul>



Liontown Resources (LTR AU) has received a revised non-binding privatisation proposal from Albemarle Corp (ALB US) at A$3.00 per share, a 20.0% premium to the previously rejected offer of A$2.50.
The revised offer is attractive compared to the Kathleen Valley Lithium Project’s NPV range, peer multiples and historical share prices. The offer price is final, barring a superior proposal.
Liontown has granted Albemarle a limited period of exclusive due diligence. The Board intends to recommend a binding proposal at A$3.00 per share. The retail vote could be a risk.


Liontown Resources (LTR AU): Albemarle’s Final A$3.00 Offer

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index ended 31 August. The changes will be announced on 8 September and implemented at the close on 15 September.</li>
<li>Coming in around the 85% cutoff, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rising-nonferrous-metals-share-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14860:1" rel="noopener">Rising Nonferrous Metals Share (600259 CH)</a> is a potential inclusion. There are two stocks that are very close to the 98% deletion threshold.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lake-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14597:1" rel="noopener">Lake Resources Nl (LKE AU)</a> is a deletion from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the September rebalance and there could be more to sell if deleted from this index.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index ended 31 August. The changes will be announced on 8 September and implemented at the close on 15 September.
Coming in around the 85% cutoff, Rising Nonferrous Metals Share (600259 CH) is a potential inclusion. There are two stocks that are very close to the 98% deletion threshold.

Lake Resources Nl (LKE AU) is a deletion from the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the September rebalance and there could be more to sell if deleted from this index.


MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Complete

<ul>
<li>The JPX Nikkei 400 index rebalance will take place on Wednesday, MSIC on Thursday and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI on Friday.</li>
<li>There are review cutoffs for the MVIS family of indices, and multiple announcements of changes to various indices during the week.</li>
<li>There were inflows to mainland China ETFs, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-india-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:282:1" rel="noopener">iShares India ETF (INDA)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-india-small-cap" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32064:1" rel="noopener">Ishares India Small-Cap (SMIN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares EmergingMarkets ex China (EMXC)</a> while there were outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:438:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets (EEM)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The JPX Nikkei 400 index rebalance will take place on Wednesday, MSIC on Thursday and HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI on Friday.
There are review cutoffs for the MVIS family of indices, and multiple announcements of changes to various indices during the week.
There were inflows to mainland China ETFs, iShares India ETF (INDA), Ishares India Small-Cap (SMIN) and iShares EmergingMarkets ex China (EMXC) while there were outflows for iShares Emerging Markets (EEM).


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSI, HSTECH, Yuanta ETFs, China ETFs, REMX, KOSPI

Australia

Mineral Resources Ltd. offers contract crushing services to the mining industry in Australia.  The Company serves gold, iron ore, tantalum, and coal companies.

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Mineral Resources (MIN AU)

Essential Metal: Shareholder Vote On 18th Oct. The IE Says Not Fair

This is done. MinRes's support - and holding in both companies - all but blocks a competing Offer. I'd be long Essential, short Develop here....

David Blennerhassett

EQD | SP/ASX200 Index: Will It Break Out of Its Range?

The ASX 200 INDEX has repeatedly failed its attempts to breach the 7600 barrier for the past 2 years. Currently rising, but will face strong...

Nico Rosti

Liontown Resources (LTR AU): Albemarle’s Final A$3.00 Offer

The revised offer is attractive compared to the Kathleen Valley Lithium Project’s NPV range, peer multiples and historical share prices. At the...

Arun George

MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Complete

With the review period complete, there is 1 potential add and 2 potential deletes. LKE is a potential delete and will also be deleted from the...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSI, HSTECH, Yuanta ETFs, China ETFs, REMX, KOSPI

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Essential Metal: Shareholder Vote On 18th Oct. The IE Says Not Fair

This is done. MinRes's support - and holding in both companies - all but blocks a competing Offer. I'd be long Essential, short Develop here....

David Blennerhassett

EQD | SP/ASX200 Index: Will It Break Out of Its Range?

​The ASX 200 INDEX has repeatedly failed its attempts to breach the 7600 barrier for the past 2 years. Currently rising, but will face strong...

Nico Rosti

Liontown Resources (LTR AU): Albemarle’s Final A$3.00 Offer

The revised offer is attractive compared to the Kathleen Valley Lithium Project’s NPV range, peer multiples and historical share prices. At the...

Arun George

MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Complete

With the review period complete, there is 1 potential add and 2 potential deletes. LKE is a potential delete and will also be deleted from the...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSI, HSTECH, Yuanta ETFs, China ETFs, REMX, KOSPI

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

The ASX 200 INDEX has repeatedly failed its attempts to breach the 7600 barrier for the past 2 years. Currently rising, but will face strong...

MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Complete