Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>The LatAm Aggregate Index contracted by 17 bps to 315 bps in the week ending Friday, May 16, 2025, and is now trading 26 bps below its 3-month average.</li>
<li>MELI 1Q25: Impressive Growth, Little Room for Further Spread Compression / YPF 1Q25: Margin Expansion and Strategic Progress Back Outperformance View</li>
<li>Suzano 1Q25: Credit Metrics Improve Despite EBITDA Miss, Remain Outperform / Minerva 1Q25: Integration and Deleveraging Underpin Outperformance View</li>
</ul>


The LatAm Aggregate Index contracted by 17 bps to 315 bps in the week ending Friday, May 16, 2025, and is now trading 26 bps below its 3-month average.
MELI 1Q25: Impressive Growth, Little Room for Further Spread Compression / YPF 1Q25: Margin Expansion and Strategic Progress Back Outperformance View
Suzano 1Q25: Credit Metrics Improve Despite EBITDA Miss, Remain Outperform / Minerva 1Q25: Integration and Deleveraging Underpin Outperformance View


<ul>
<li>Argentina Secures US$20bn IMF Deal with Currency Controls Eased / Argentina: March CPI Surprise Adds Pressure</li>
<li>Initiating Coverage on Telecom Argentina: Solid Market Position but Uncertain Outlook / Mercado Libre Expands Regional Footprint with $9 Billion in 2025 Investments Across Brazil, Argentina, and Chile</li>
<li>Minerva Announces Capital increase Backed by Sponsors / Mercado Libre Expands Regional Footprint with $9 Billion in 2025 Investments Across Brazil, Argentina, and Chile</li>
</ul>


Argentina Secures US$20bn IMF Deal with Currency Controls Eased / Argentina: March CPI Surprise Adds Pressure
Initiating Coverage on Telecom Argentina: Solid Market Position but Uncertain Outlook / Mercado Libre Expands Regional Footprint with $9 Billion in 2025 Investments Across Brazil, Argentina, and Chile
Minerva Announces Capital increase Backed by Sponsors / Mercado Libre Expands Regional Footprint with $9 Billion in 2025 Investments Across Brazil, Argentina, and Chile


<ul>
<li>Argentina’s $20 Billion IMF Deal Could Calm Markets Ahead of Midterms</li>
<li>Pemex Monthly Report: February/Minerva Positioned to Benefit from China’s Shift in Protein Imports</li>
<li>Cemex: Stable Outlook Affirmed Despite Hybrid Reclassification Dragging Metrics/ YPF Launches “Vaca Muerta Institute” to Support Shale Growth</li>
</ul>


Argentina’s $20 Billion IMF Deal Could Calm Markets Ahead of Midterms
Pemex Monthly Report: February/Minerva Positioned to Benefit from China’s Shift in Protein Imports
Cemex: Stable Outlook Affirmed Despite Hybrid Reclassification Dragging Metrics/ YPF Launches “Vaca Muerta Institute” to Support Shale Growth


<ul>
<li>Stronger post-acquisition scale, healthy FCF outlook, and export momentum reinforce the deleveraging path and outperformance case</li>
<li>We upgrade Minerva to Outperform, reflecting greater confidence in the company’s deleveraging trajectory, supported by expected cash generation despite integration costs and higher interest expenses.</li>
<li>Minerva reported strong 4Q24 results, with revenue up 26.0% QoQ and 73.8% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA rose 16.1% QoQ and 55.8% YoY, though the margin narrowed to 8.8%</li>
</ul>


Stronger post-acquisition scale, healthy FCF outlook, and export momentum reinforce the deleveraging path and outperformance case
We upgrade Minerva to Outperform, reflecting greater confidence in the company’s deleveraging trajectory, supported by expected cash generation despite integration costs and higher interest expenses.
Minerva reported strong 4Q24 results, with revenue up 26.0% QoQ and 73.8% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA rose 16.1% QoQ and 55.8% YoY, though the margin narrowed to 8.8%


Minerva 4Q24: Acquisition Outlook and Market Tailwinds Support Credit Upgrade

<ul>
<li>4Q24 results: Minerva - acquisition outlook and market tailwinds support credit upgrade, YPF - strategic progress offset weak quarter, and Pemex - high carry but risk outweigh rewards. </li>
<li>Argentina 4Q24 GDP Beats Expectations, but Outlook Hinges on Policy and IMF Deal</li>
<li>Sheinbaum Restructures Pemex to Strengthen State Control - Pemex’s elevated leverage, continued E&amp;P underperformance, and exposure to refining losses remain key concerns.</li>
</ul>


4Q24 results: Minerva - acquisition outlook and market tailwinds support credit upgrade, YPF - strategic progress offset weak quarter, and Pemex - high carry but risk outweigh rewards. 
Argentina 4Q24 GDP Beats Expectations, but Outlook Hinges on Policy and IMF Deal
Sheinbaum Restructures Pemex to Strengthen State Control - Pemex’s elevated leverage, continued E&amp;P underperformance, and exposure to refining losses remain key concerns.


Brazil

Minerva S.A. is a leading Brazilian food company specializing in the production and sale of fresh beef, leather, derivatives, and the export of live cattle. The company also operates in the meat processing segment, selling its products to over 100 countries across five continents. Minerva S.A. was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Barretos, São Paulo, Brazil.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Minerva (BEEF3 BR)

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

LatAm Aggregate Index down to 315 bps, trading below 3-month average. MELI and YPF show growth, Suzano and Minerva credit metrics improve.

Leandro Gubler

Weekly News & Views

Argentina secures IMF deal with eased currency controls, Telecom Argentina has solid market position but uncertain outlook, Mercado Libre expands...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

Argentina secures $20 billion IMF deal to stabilize markets before midterms, while Pemex and Cemex navigate challenges and YPF launches institute...

Leandro Gubler

Minerva 4Q24: Acquisition Outlook and Market Tailwinds Support Credit Upgrade

Minerva's post-acquisition scale, solid cash flow, and export strength support deleveraging and outperformance, prompting an upgrade to Outperform...

Leandro Gubler

Weekly News & Views – Mar 21, 2025

4Q24 results show Minerva improving, YPF progressing, but Pemex remains high risk. Argentina's GDP beat estimates, but outlook depends on policy...

Leandro Gubler

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​LatAm Aggregate Index down to 315 bps, trading below 3-month average. MELI and YPF show growth, Suzano and Minerva credit metrics improve.

Leandro Gubler

Weekly News & Views

​Argentina secures IMF deal with eased currency controls, Telecom Argentina has solid market position but uncertain outlook, Mercado Libre expands...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​Argentina secures $20 billion IMF deal to stabilize markets before midterms, while Pemex and Cemex navigate challenges and YPF launches institute...

Leandro Gubler

Minerva 4Q24: Acquisition Outlook and Market Tailwinds Support Credit Upgrade

Minerva's post-acquisition scale, solid cash flow, and export strength support deleveraging and outperformance, prompting an upgrade to Outperform...

Leandro Gubler

Weekly News & Views – Mar 21, 2025

4Q24 results show Minerva improving, YPF progressing, but Pemex remains high risk. Argentina's GDP beat estimates, but outlook depends on policy...

Leandro Gubler

LatAm Aggregate Index down to 315 bps, trading below 3-month average. MELI and YPF show growth, Suzano and Minerva credit metrics improve.

Argentina secures IMF deal with eased currency controls, Telecom Argentina has solid market position but uncertain outlook, Mercado Libre expands...

Argentina secures $20 billion IMF deal to stabilize markets before midterms, while Pemex and Cemex navigate challenges and YPF launches institute...