Podcast by S&P analysing commodity market trends, Commodities Focus

Commodities Focus

Podcast by S&P analysing commodity market trends

S&P Global Commodity Insights analysis of key news and pricing issues from across the global shipping, natural gas, power, petrochemicals, agriculture, and coal markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The cattle cycle is a long-term cyclical fluctuation in cattle inventory driven by economic signals</li><li>Important metrics to consider include availability of female animals, profitability in feeding and cow-calf sectors</li><li>Brazil and Australia are the main suppliers of beef to the US, with a large portion of imports being lean trim beef</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

The cattle cycle is a long-term cyclical fluctuation in cattle inventory driven by economic signalsImportant metrics to consider include availability of female animals, profitability in feeding and cow-calf sectorsBrazil and Australia are the main suppliers of beef to the US, with a large portion of imports being lean trim beefThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Understanding the cattle cycle, why US beef prices are at record highs and the role of Australia ...

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>LatAm credit markets ended the week mixed as the LatAm Aggregate Index widened to 280 bps while EM spreads and U.S. yields remained stable.</li>
<li>In 2Q25 earnings, Vista, Minerva, and YPF delivered strong results supporting Overweight views, while Suzano, Cemex, and Telecom face spread constraints amid operational pressures.</li>
<li>MercadoLibre’s growth remains solid but limited spread compression, and Pemex benefits from government support.</li>
</ul>


LatAm credit markets ended the week mixed as the LatAm Aggregate Index widened to 280 bps while EM spreads and U.S. yields remained stable.
In 2Q25 earnings, Vista, Minerva, and YPF delivered strong results supporting Overweight views, while Suzano, Cemex, and Telecom face spread constraints amid operational pressures.
MercadoLibre’s growth remains solid but limited spread compression, and Pemex benefits from government support.


Weekly News & Views - 2Q25 Earnings Recap

<ul>
<li>U.S. Tariff Escalation: Credit Implications for Brazilian Companies in Our Coverage / MercadoLibre Achieves Full Investment Grade Status with S&amp;P Upgrade / Pemex Eyes US$8bn from Mixed Contracts</li>
<li>Initiating Coverage on Gerdau: IG Credit with US Exposure, Limited Spread Upside / Fitch Affirms Gerdau at BBB with Stable Outlook on Strong Fundamentals</li>
<li>Vista 2Q25: Results Reinforce Overweight, But Cash Burn and Liquidity Weaken Buffer / US Reinforces Argentina’s Appeal in YPF Expropriation Case</li>
</ul>


U.S. Tariff Escalation: Credit Implications for Brazilian Companies in Our Coverage / MercadoLibre Achieves Full Investment Grade Status with S&amp;P Upgrade / Pemex Eyes US$8bn from Mixed Contracts
Initiating Coverage on Gerdau: IG Credit with US Exposure, Limited Spread Upside / Fitch Affirms Gerdau at BBB with Stable Outlook on Strong Fundamentals
Vista 2Q25: Results Reinforce Overweight, But Cash Burn and Liquidity Weaken Buffer / US Reinforces Argentina’s Appeal in YPF Expropriation Case


<ul>
<li>Brazilian Credits in Our Coverage Show Resilience, as U.S. Tariffs Likely to Have a Modest Impact Despite Limited Macro Policy Flexibility</li>
<li>Suzano is most exposed to U.S. tariffs, but global scale, cost leadership, and FX tailwinds help cushion the impact. Gerdau could benefit from tighter U.S. supply conditions in the US. </li>
<li>CSN has just 4% U.S. exposure, with limited risk unless quotas tighten. Minerva’s 5% is manageable, supported by a diversified export base that enables flexible rerouting.</li>
</ul>


Brazilian Credits in Our Coverage Show Resilience, as U.S. Tariffs Likely to Have a Modest Impact Despite Limited Macro Policy Flexibility
Suzano is most exposed to U.S. tariffs, but global scale, cost leadership, and FX tailwinds help cushion the impact. Gerdau could benefit from tighter U.S. supply conditions in the US. 
CSN has just 4% U.S. exposure, with limited risk unless quotas tighten. Minerva’s 5% is manageable, supported by a diversified export base that enables flexible rerouting.


U.S. Tariff Escalation: Credit Implications for Brazilian Companies in Our Coverage

Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (CSNA3 BR)

<ul>
<li>EM spreads hold steady, while LatAm spreads expand 5 bps. </li>
<li>Brazil’s economic growth is expected to slow after four years above 3%, as persistent inflation, tight monetary policy, and limited fiscal adjustment weigh on the outlook. </li>
<li>Minerva Announces Divestment of Uruguayan Asset to Allana / YPF Advances Divestment Strategy to Prioritize Vaca Muerta Development / CSN Cimentos Brasil Finalizes Terms of R$550 Million Debenture Offering</li>
</ul>


EM spreads hold steady, while LatAm spreads expand 5 bps. 
Brazil’s economic growth is expected to slow after four years above 3%, as persistent inflation, tight monetary policy, and limited fiscal adjustment weigh on the outlook. 
Minerva Announces Divestment of Uruguayan Asset to Allana / YPF Advances Divestment Strategy to Prioritize Vaca Muerta Development / CSN Cimentos Brasil Finalizes Terms of R$550 Million Debenture Offering


Brazil

Minerva S.A. is a leading Brazilian food company specializing in the production and sale of fresh beef, leather, derivatives, and the export of live cattle. The company also operates in the meat processing segment, selling its products to over 100 countries across five continents. Minerva S.A. was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Barretos, São Paulo, Brazil.

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Minerva (BEEF3 BR)

Understanding the cattle cycle, why US beef prices are at record highs and the role of Australia ...

The cattle cycle and biological cycle of beef animals, in relation to key metrics and global suppliers, are impacted by factors such as dry weather...

Commodities Focus

Weekly News & Views - 2Q25 Earnings Recap

LatAm credit markets show mixed results, with some companies delivering strong earnings while others face operational pressures.

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

US tariffs impact Brazilian companies, MercadoLibre achieves investment grade, Pemex eyes $8bn, Gerdau coverage initiated, Vista 2Q25 results, US...

Leandro Gubler

U.S. Tariff Escalation: Credit Implications for Brazilian Companies in Our Coverage

Brazilian companies like Suzano, Gerdau, CSN, and Minerva show resilience against U.S. tariffs, with limited impact due to global scale, cost...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

EM spreads hold steady, Brazil macro update, YPF advances shale pivot, Minerva finalizes Uruguay asset sale, and CSN Cimentos prices R$550mn issue.

Leandro Gubler

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Understanding the cattle cycle, why US beef prices are at record highs and the role of Australia ...

The cattle cycle and biological cycle of beef animals, in relation to key metrics and global suppliers, are impacted by factors such as dry weather...

Commodities Focus

Weekly News & Views - 2Q25 Earnings Recap

​LatAm credit markets show mixed results, with some companies delivering strong earnings while others face operational pressures.

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​US tariffs impact Brazilian companies, MercadoLibre achieves investment grade, Pemex eyes $8bn, Gerdau coverage initiated, Vista 2Q25 results, US...

Leandro Gubler

U.S. Tariff Escalation: Credit Implications for Brazilian Companies in Our Coverage

​Brazilian companies like Suzano, Gerdau, CSN, and Minerva show resilience against U.S. tariffs, with limited impact due to global scale, cost...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

EM spreads hold steady, Brazil macro update, YPF advances shale pivot, Minerva finalizes Uruguay asset sale, and CSN Cimentos prices R$550mn issue.

Leandro Gubler

LatAm credit markets show mixed results, with some companies delivering strong earnings while others face operational pressures.

US tariffs impact Brazilian companies, MercadoLibre achieves investment grade, Pemex eyes $8bn, Gerdau coverage initiated, Vista 2Q25 results, US...

Brazilian companies like Suzano, Gerdau, CSN, and Minerva show resilience against U.S. tariffs, with limited impact due to global scale, cost...