Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Three months ago, local media reported that Chinese lifestyle retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)</a> was considering spinning off its collectible toy unit TOP TOY on the Hong Kong exchange. </li>
<li>Reportedly, MINISO could raise ~US$300mn from an IPO. MINISO has now <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0606/2025060600787.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">confirmed</a> that a spin-off is being contemplated; although a proposal is only at a preliminary stage. </li>
<li>TOP TOY has been a growth engine. But its contribution to the group is still ~6%. Applying a holding company discount, post spin-off, MINISO's upside appears limited.</li>
</ul>


Three months ago, local media reported that Chinese lifestyle retailer MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK) was considering spinning off its collectible toy unit TOP TOY on the Hong Kong exchange. 
Reportedly, MINISO could raise ~US$300mn from an IPO. MINISO has now confirmed that a spin-off is being contemplated; although a proposal is only at a preliminary stage. 
TOP TOY has been a growth engine. But its contribution to the group is still ~6%. Applying a holding company discount, post spin-off, MINISO's upside appears limited.


MINISO (9896 HK)'s (Possible) TOP TOY Spin-Off Is Priced In

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We preliminarily estimate TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)</a>'s market capitalisation, though there are still a lot of moving parts.  </li>
<li>TOP TOY is doing well in FY24 with a 41.1% surge in GMV, and for 1Q25, its revenue grew by 58.9%, reflecting exciting growth prospects.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloks-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43648:1" rel="noopener">Bloks Group (325 HK)</a> is a better comparable as its revenue is 2.3x TOP TOY's, but its profit is 8x. A successful TOP TOY spin-off should benefit Miniso.</li>
</ul>


We preliminarily estimate TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)'s market capitalisation, though there are still a lot of moving parts.  
TOP TOY is doing well in FY24 with a 41.1% surge in GMV, and for 1Q25, its revenue grew by 58.9%, reflecting exciting growth prospects.

Bloks Group (325 HK) is a better comparable as its revenue is 2.3x TOP TOY's, but its profit is 8x. A successful TOP TOY spin-off should benefit Miniso.


MINISO Group (9896 HK): Assessing the TOP TOY Spin-Off

Equity Analyst, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO</a>  has confirmed that it is considering a possible spin-off listing of TOP TOY, its pop toy division, signalling its intent to unlock value from its collectible toy business.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK)</a>, the leading player in the pop toy retail segment, is trading at nearly 50x forward earnings compared to Miniso's 13.5x forward P/E.</li>
<li>TOP TOY is in an early stage of its growth curve compared to Pop Mart and could be valued at a discount given notably lower operating margins.</li>
</ul>



MINISO  has confirmed that it is considering a possible spin-off listing of TOP TOY, its pop toy division, signalling its intent to unlock value from its collectible toy business.

Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK), the leading player in the pop toy retail segment, is trading at nearly 50x forward earnings compared to Miniso's 13.5x forward P/E.
TOP TOY is in an early stage of its growth curve compared to Pop Mart and could be valued at a discount given notably lower operating margins.


Miniso: TOP TOY Spin-Off - Early Stage Pop Mart. Valuation Upside

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)</a> committed to expanding in the U.S. with plans in place to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods via its diversified supply chain strategy.</li>
<li>Key investor concern: Slower store expansion in Mainland China in 2025 may temper near-term sales and profit growth. Capital intensive overseas expansion could dilute potential returns.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29673:1" rel="noopener">Miniso (MNSO US)</a>’s accelerating shift toward higher-margin IP co-branded lifestyle products—a strategy poised to sustain double-digit revenue growth, makes it an attractive investment play in the lifestyle retail space.</li>
</ul>



MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK) committed to expanding in the U.S. with plans in place to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods via its diversified supply chain strategy.
Key investor concern: Slower store expansion in Mainland China in 2025 may temper near-term sales and profit growth. Capital intensive overseas expansion could dilute potential returns.

Miniso (MNSO US)’s accelerating shift toward higher-margin IP co-branded lifestyle products—a strategy poised to sustain double-digit revenue growth, makes it an attractive investment play in the lifestyle retail space.


Miniso: Undeterred by Tariffs. IP-Strategy, Global Expansion on Track. Value Buy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)</a> has surged 34% since announcing strong 9M24 results, backed by robust revenue growth, in end November, 2024.</li>
<li>With strong growth prospects, the stock could scale further in 2025, driven by rapid store expansion, blind box toys, ACG goods, and collaborations with top IPs like Harry Potter.</li>
<li>MINISO’s evolution from a value retailer into a lifestyle brand with trademarked IP goods, innovative blind boxes, and creative retail formats enhances its competitive edge and drives growth.</li>
</ul>



MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK) has surged 34% since announcing strong 9M24 results, backed by robust revenue growth, in end November, 2024.
With strong growth prospects, the stock could scale further in 2025, driven by rapid store expansion, blind box toys, ACG goods, and collaborations with top IPs like Harry Potter.
MINISO’s evolution from a value retailer into a lifestyle brand with trademarked IP goods, innovative blind boxes, and creative retail formats enhances its competitive edge and drives growth.


MINISO (9896 HK): From Blind Boxes to ACG Hits—Growth Magic Continues in 2025!

China

MINISO Group Holding Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, retails home decor, small electronics, textile, accessories, beauty tools, toys, cosmetics, personal care, snacks, fragrance and perfumes, and stationery and gifts. MINISO Group Holding serves customers worldwide.

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MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)

MINISO (9896 HK)'s (Possible) TOP TOY Spin-Off Is Priced In

TOP TOY’s been a standout in MINISO’s portfolio. A separate listing enables MINIDO to focus on its lifestyle goods. Yet, I see MINISO at a 21%...

David Blennerhassett

MINISO Group (9896 HK): Assessing the TOP TOY Spin-Off

Preliminary estimates suggest TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of Miniso's market capitalisation, with strong growth prospects and potential...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Miniso: TOP TOY Spin-Off - Early Stage Pop Mart. Valuation Upside

Expect a 25% uplift in Miniso’s overall valuation from the TOP TOY spin-off listing, which could be benchmarked with Pop Mart and valued at around...

Devi Subhakesan

Miniso: Undeterred by Tariffs. IP-Strategy, Global Expansion on Track. Value Buy

Miniso presents compelling relative value versus Pop Mart (9992 HK) ’s premium valuation. Expect this valuation gap to narrow as investors gain...

Devi Subhakesan

MINISO (9896 HK): From Blind Boxes to ACG Hits—Growth Magic Continues in 2025!

Growth in 2025 could pick up pace as MINISO accelerates its transformation from a value retailer into a lifestyle brand with more trademarked IP...

Devi Subhakesan

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MINISO (9896 HK)'s (Possible) TOP TOY Spin-Off Is Priced In

TOP TOY’s been a standout in MINISO’s portfolio. A separate listing enables MINIDO to focus on its lifestyle goods. Yet, I see MINISO at a 21%...

David Blennerhassett

MINISO Group (9896 HK): Assessing the TOP TOY Spin-Off

​Preliminary estimates suggest TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of Miniso's market capitalisation, with strong growth prospects and potential...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Miniso: TOP TOY Spin-Off - Early Stage Pop Mart. Valuation Upside

Expect a 25% uplift in Miniso’s overall valuation from the TOP TOY spin-off listing, which could be benchmarked with Pop Mart and valued at around...

Devi Subhakesan

Miniso: Undeterred by Tariffs. IP-Strategy, Global Expansion on Track. Value Buy

Miniso presents compelling relative value versus Pop Mart (9992 HK) ’s premium valuation. Expect this valuation gap to narrow as investors gain...

Devi Subhakesan

MINISO (9896 HK): From Blind Boxes to ACG Hits—Growth Magic Continues in 2025!

Growth in 2025 could pick up pace as MINISO accelerates its transformation from a value retailer into a lifestyle brand with more trademarked IP...

Devi Subhakesan

Preliminary estimates suggest TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of Miniso's market capitalisation, with strong growth prospects and potential...