Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Mirae Asset TIGER Fn Semiconductor Top 10 ETF / Event-Driven

Mirae Asset TIGER Fn Semiconductor Top 10 ETF

<ul>
<li>KRW 5T fund—the public-participation slice of the KRW 35T joint vehicle—is the main conduit for flows into local equities.</li>
<li>The KRW 150T policy fund launches December, but pre-emptive flows could hit early, led by the KRW 5T ETF-heavy, retail-accessible Public Participation Fund.</li>
<li>The KRW 5T Public Participation Fund, ETF-heavy and thematic in AI, semis, Mobility, and Biotech, could drive concentrated, short-term rallies; position early ahead of year-end flows.</li>
</ul>


KRW 5T fund—the public-participation slice of the KRW 35T joint vehicle—is the main conduit for flows into local equities.
The KRW 150T policy fund launches December, but pre-emptive flows could hit early, led by the KRW 5T ETF-heavy, retail-accessible Public Participation Fund.
The KRW 5T Public Participation Fund, ETF-heavy and thematic in AI, semis, Mobility, and Biotech, could drive concentrated, short-term rallies; position early ahead of year-end flows.


KRW 150T Korea Policy Fund: Watch the Flow Play from the KRW 5T Retail/ETF-Heavy Slice

<ul>
<li>From a trading view, no confirmed new ETFs under the National Growth Fund yet; market expects existing ETFs to be the main liquidity and sector play tools instead.</li>
<li>Out of the KRW 150tn, ETF flows likely come from the 100tn private pool—conservative case: ~3% (KRW 4.5tn), base case: 5–7%, aggressive: up to 10% (KRW 15tn).</li>
<li>Even conservatively, about KRW 3 trillion could flow into sector ETFs, a signficant AUM boost, mainly concentrated in AI, defense, aerospace, and biotech—driving notable inflow impact.</li>
</ul>


From a trading view, no confirmed new ETFs under the National Growth Fund yet; market expects existing ETFs to be the main liquidity and sector play tools instead.
Out of the KRW 150tn, ETF flows likely come from the 100tn private pool—conservative case: ~3% (KRW 4.5tn), base case: 5–7%, aggressive: up to 10% (KRW 15tn).
Even conservatively, about KRW 3 trillion could flow into sector ETFs, a signficant AUM boost, mainly concentrated in AI, defense, aerospace, and biotech—driving notable inflow impact.


Korea’s Next Policy Momentum Play: Rapid Unfolding of the National Growth Fund

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>After the March avg daily market cap screen, Wonik IPS is swapped for Jusung Engineering. Big passive impact expected—Jusung gets 1x ADTV buy flow, Wonik faces 2.6x ADTV sell.</li>
<li>Watch for passive flow timing—last rebalance (Oct 11), ISC Co Ltd got kicked, Wonik IPS called up. TIGER split Wonik’s rebalance over two trading days to minimize price impact.</li>
<li>The long/short yield was 2.89% on Oct 11, 3.96% over two days. With bigger passive flow impact, TIGER may split the rebalance—enter near Thursday close, exit by Monday afternoon.</li>
</ul>


After the March avg daily market cap screen, Wonik IPS is swapped for Jusung Engineering. Big passive impact expected—Jusung gets 1x ADTV buy flow, Wonik faces 2.6x ADTV sell.
Watch for passive flow timing—last rebalance (Oct 11), ISC Co Ltd got kicked, Wonik IPS called up. TIGER split Wonik’s rebalance over two trading days to minimize price impact.
The long/short yield was 2.89% on Oct 11, 3.96% over two days. With bigger passive flow impact, TIGER may split the rebalance—enter near Thursday close, exit by Monday afternoon.


Watch This Friday's TIGER Top 10 Semicon Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Opposition's probable win in the election sparks concerns about Value-up initiative's momentum. However, market sentiment doesn't universally echo these worries.</li>
<li>Value-Up stocks' recent corrections likely stem from Q4 dividend arbitrage liquidation, rather than election result concerns.</li>
<li>Post-Election, even if the opposition wins, the left-leaning Value-up program might continue, limiting the opposition's influence, as seen in recent National Pension Service flows.</li>
</ul>


Opposition's probable win in the election sparks concerns about Value-up initiative's momentum. However, market sentiment doesn't universally echo these worries.
Value-Up stocks' recent corrections likely stem from Q4 dividend arbitrage liquidation, rather than election result concerns.
Post-Election, even if the opposition wins, the left-leaning Value-up program might continue, limiting the opposition's influence, as seen in recent National Pension Service flows.


Observations on Post-Election Flows of Value-Up Stocks, Based on Recent Local Institutional Trades

<ul>
<li>Will there be changes in April's rebalancing? With two weeks left, two names are likely. Wonik IPS may be replaced by ISC Co Ltd, given a ₩150B market cap difference.</li>
<li>In the previous rebalancing, constituent changes had a notable price impact. Despite a passive flow impact of +1.0x ADTV, HPSP and EO Technics saw about a 15% 3-day return.</li>
<li>Wonik IPS is estimated to receive -4.0x ADTV, while ISC is expected to receive +1.0x ADTV. This is also quite similar to the previous rebalancing.</li>
</ul>


Will there be changes in April's rebalancing? With two weeks left, two names are likely. Wonik IPS may be replaced by ISC Co Ltd, given a ₩150B market cap difference.
In the previous rebalancing, constituent changes had a notable price impact. Despite a passive flow impact of +1.0x ADTV, HPSP and EO Technics saw about a 15% 3-day return.
Wonik IPS is estimated to receive -4.0x ADTV, while ISC is expected to receive +1.0x ADTV. This is also quite similar to the previous rebalancing.


Sector ETF Rebalancing with Remarkable Price Impact History: ISC In, Wonik IPS Out

South Korea

Mirae Asset TIGER Fn Semiconductor TOP 10 ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorproated in South Korea. The objective of the fund is to provide investment return that corresponds closely to the performance of the FnGuide Semiconductor TOP10 Index.

Mirae Asset TIGER Fn Semiconductor Top 10 ETF (396500 KS)

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Mirae Asset TIGER Fn Semiconductor Top 10 ETF (396500 KS)

KRW 150T Korea Policy Fund: Watch the Flow Play from the KRW 5T Retail/ETF-Heavy Slice

This post dives into the KRW 150T Korea Policy Fund, highlighting the flow dynamics from the KRW 5T retail- and ETF-heavy slice.

Sanghyun Park

Korea’s Next Policy Momentum Play: Rapid Unfolding of the National Growth Fund

This post flags Korea’s upcoming policy driver—the swift activation of the National Growth Fund—which is set to be a major catalyst for market...

Sanghyun Park

Watch This Friday's TIGER Top 10 Semicon Rebalance

We should keep an eye on this Friday's local passive flow event: the TIGER Top 10 Semicon rebalance, which will bring some serious buy/sell action.

Sanghyun Park

Observations on Post-Election Flows of Value-Up Stocks, Based on Recent Local Institutional Trades

This post outlines my observations on the post-election flows of Value-up beneficiary stocks, derived from recent local institutional trades.

Sanghyun Park

Sector ETF Rebalancing with Remarkable Price Impact History: ISC In, Wonik IPS Out

ISC (095340) is still likely to be included, while Wonik IPS (240810) is expected to be excluded. The substantial market cap gap indicates an...

Sanghyun Park

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