Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Japan’s breakout adds to an attractive global trendJapan’s base breakout, Europe’s rebound at the 200-day, and EM’s advance to all-time highs – it’s this technical panorama that confirms a risk-on environment, and supports a bullish outlook. Ignore the daily charts—the source of noise—and stick with the weeklies—they tell the true story: up and to the right.In today’s report, we highlight actionable themes in two countries (Japan and Norway) and one sector (energy).

Japan’s breakout adds to an attractive global trendJapan’s base breakout, Europe’s rebound at the 200-day, and EM’s advance to all-time highs – it’s this technical panorama that confirms a risk-on environment, and supports a bullish outlook. Ignore the daily charts—the source of noise—and stick with the weeklies—they tell the true story: up and to the right.In today’s report, we highlight actionable themes in two countries (Japan and Norway) and one sector (energy).

Int'l Compass: Japan Is Breaking Out; Energy Stocks Are Bottoming; Norway Is Emerging as Leadership

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Macroeconomics

The non-consensus end Q2 growth into value switch focused on short MSCI tech versus long 50:50 mining and energy position is now almost 6% onside.Oil has joined the rally seen in industrial metals, with US inventories now down 10% from their March peak and the market shifting into backwardation.Shorting the USD and volatility have become one-way bets but both look likely to reverse into the autumn, undermining carry trades and cross market correlations.With plunging approval ratings, the…

The non-consensus end Q2 growth into value switch focused on short MSCI tech versus long 50:50 mining and energy position is now almost 6% onside.Oil has joined the rally seen in industrial metals, with US inventories now down 10% from their March peak and the market shifting into backwardation.Shorting the USD and volatility have become one-way bets but both look likely to reverse into the autumn, undermining carry trades and cross market correlations.With plunging approval ratings, the…

Oil Joins 'Surprise' Resource Rally, as Japan Looks Past Abe Era…

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Headlines</h2><ul><li>Refrigeration appliances sees 5% volume growth in 2016 to reach 4.2 million units.</li><li>Demand for refrigeration appliances rebounds following declines caused by VAT increase in April 2014.</li><li>Fridge freezers is the fastest-growing category, with a 6% volume increase in 2016.</li><li>Premiumisation continues to play a key role in raising unit prices in refrigeration appliances in Japan.</li><li>Panasonic retains the lead in 2016, though Hitachi gains ground.</li><li>Refrigeration appliances’ performance over 2016-2021 is set to echo the declining number of households, with a -1% CAGR forecast in volume terms.</li></ul>

HeadlinesRefrigeration appliances sees 5% volume growth in 2016 to reach 4.2 million units.Demand for refrigeration appliances rebounds following declines caused by VAT increase in April 2014.Fridge freezers is the fastest-growing category, with a 6% volume increase in 2016.Premiumisation continues to play a key role in raising unit prices in refrigeration appliances in Japan.Panasonic retains the lead in 2016, though Hitachi gains ground.Refrigeration appliances’ performance over 2016-2021 is set to echo the declining number of households, with a -1% CAGR forecast in volume terms.

Sector Capsule: Refrigeration Appliances in Japan

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Japanese and Asian equity long/short strategies

Uzabase

Specialising in Japanese and Asian equity long/short strategies with a focus on rigorous, but targeted quantitative analysis to temper evaluations of company strategy, potential and vision. At Uzabase, our team of analysts provides coverage of industry dynamics with a local Asian flavour on Speeda, our financial information platform. Going forward we are aiming to channel our focus toward thematic research on emerging industries and company research.

Equity Bottom-Up

We visited <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2458" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2458:1">Yaskawa Electric Corp (6506 JP)</a> on Friday to delve into current market shares for their various products, assess the company's stance on the long-term opportunity for Cobots and understand their products better. We would further note positive <a href="http://www.nikkei.com/nkd/company/article/?DisplayType=1&amp;n_cid=DSMMAA13&amp;ng=DGXLZO17860660Z10C17A6TJ2000&amp;scode=6954&amp;ba=1" target="_blank">news on capacity expansion</a> from the Japanese Nikkei. The article says that Yaskawa could raise global monthly robot production capacity from 3,000 units to 5,000 units by 2019, doubling capacity in China to more than 1,200 units per month.Since…

We visited Yaskawa Electric Corp (6506 JP) on Friday to delve into current market shares for their various products, assess the company's stance on the long-term opportunity for Cobots and understand their products better. We would further note positive news on capacity expansion from the Japanese Nikkei. The article says that Yaskawa could raise global monthly robot production capacity from 3,000 units to 5,000 units by 2019, doubling capacity in China to more than 1,200 units per month.Since…

Yaskawa Electric Visit: Steady Performance but Time to Tilt Long Yaskawa/Short Fanuc Pair Shorter

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

I have always known that Japanese companies change around their segments in order to make it more difficult for investors. I know this because when I was in Panasonic's IR department a lifetime ago it is exactly what we did. However, we have always wondered if the lack of transparency translated into poor price performance.That is not the case. In fact over the last 10 years the group with the most changes in segments significantly outperformed the group with the least changes. However they both…

I have always known that Japanese companies change around their segments in order to make it more difficult for investors. I know this because when I was in Panasonic's IR department a lifetime ago it is exactly what we did. However, we have always wondered if the lack of transparency translated into poor price performance.That is not the case. In fact over the last 10 years the group with the most changes in segments significantly outperformed the group with the least changes. However they both…

Companies that Change Segment Names Do Not Get Punished....

Japan

Mitsubishi Electric Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets electronic equipment.  The Company's products include industrial machinery, heavy electric machinery, data communications systems, electronic devices, and consumer electronics.

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Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JP)

Int'l Compass: Japan Is Breaking Out; Energy Stocks Are Bottoming; Norway Is Emerging as Leadership

Japan’s breakout adds to an attractive global trendJapan’s base breakout, Europe’s rebound at the 200-day, and EM’s advance to all-time highs –...

Vermilion Research

Oil Joins 'Surprise' Resource Rally, as Japan Looks Past Abe Era…

The non-consensus end Q2 growth into value switch focused on short MSCI tech versus long 50:50 mining and energy position is now almost 6%...

Sean Maher

Sector Capsule: Refrigeration Appliances in Japan

Headlines Refrigeration appliances sees 5% volume growth in 2016 to reach 4.2 million units. Demand for refrigeration appliances rebounds following...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yaskawa Electric Visit: Steady Performance but Time to Tilt Long Yaskawa/Short Fanuc Pair Shorter

We visited Yaskawa Electric Corp (6506 JP) on Friday to delve into current market shares for their various products, assess the company's stance on...

Mio Kato

Companies that Change Segment Names Do Not Get Punished....

I have always known that Japanese companies change around their segments in order to make it more difficult for investors. I know this because when...

Custom Products Group

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