Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Note: wins and losses are listed at the end of the piece.Transport has been on a roll. A month ago we saw crazy buying any which way with weak names rising more than better names. US Rail has done ok though not stellar. US Airlines have done better. Especially after Warren Buffett portfolio managers did the unthinkable and bought <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3663" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3663:1">American Airlines Group Inc (AAL US)</a>, DAL US and UAL US (announced mid Nov). But US airlines is a whole other turnaround story. Not your run of the mill core transport…

Note: wins and losses are listed at the end of the piece.Transport has been on a roll. A month ago we saw crazy buying any which way with weak names rising more than better names. US Rail has done ok though not stellar. US Airlines have done better. Especially after Warren Buffett portfolio managers did the unthinkable and bought American Airlines Group Inc (AAL US), DAL US and UAL US (announced mid Nov). But US airlines is a whole other turnaround story. Not your run of the mill core transport…

The Rally in Transport Continues in Twists and Turns

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>You'd only want to be long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> if you're very bullish <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellebrite-di-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37102:1" rel="noopener">Cellebrite (CLBT US)</a>and some of the other businesses inside Sun Corp which aren't making money.</li>
<li>It's never ideal shorting rocket ships on the way up. Best to short on the way down. At some juncture, there will be a magnificent correction in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia (285A JP)</a>.</li>
<li>On balance, the optics in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a> are looking attractive. </li>
</ul>


You'd only want to be long Sun Corp (6736 JP) if you're very bullish Cellebrite (CLBT US)and some of the other businesses inside Sun Corp which aren't making money.
It's never ideal shorting rocket ships on the way up. Best to short on the way down. At some juncture, there will be a magnificent correction in Kioxia (285A JP).
On balance, the optics in CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) are looking attractive. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Kioxia, CK Hutchison, Toshiba/ROHM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Results of listed terminal operators reveal a weakness in organic earnings as gearing increases. Stricter cost rationalisation and financial risk reduction will retain investment interest. Companies with growth plans command a significant market premium as profitability diminishes.

Results of listed terminal operators reveal a weakness in organic earnings as gearing increases. Stricter cost rationalisation and financial risk reduction will retain investment interest. Companies with growth plans command a significant market premium as profitability diminishes.

Global Port Operators - 3Q16 Profitability Trends Lower on Slackening Growth

Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

"Why Hold Japan?" is a question that recurs among foreign investors, now the greatest cohort of investors in Japanese stocks.  The question tends to arise much more during cyclical downturns, as investors reassess their holdings.  Japan's lukewarm economic expansion as well as uncertainty surrounding events overseas still compel investors to justify their Japan allocation with a sound investment thesis, even if there are no imminent plans for portfolio reallocation.  As in the first installment of the series, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/why-hold-japan-part-i-relative-tax-regimes" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:6854">Why Hold Japan, Part I: Relative Tax Regimes</a> , we once again focus on comparative metrics within the world's largest developed economies.  This time, we focus upon relative growth cycles and comparative valuation among G7 bourses.  On the macroeconomic side, we find Japan far less of an under-performer than it was at its cyclical trough in 2011-2012.  Aggregate index valuation metrics meanwhile show valuations in Japan to be far less inflated than in 2006 (mid expansion cycle) or 2011 (mid contraction cycle), while Return on Equity is much more in line with its G7 counterparts than in either of these historical periods.  There remain signals of greater longer-term under-valuation of smaller listed firms in particular among TOPIX constituents.

"Why Hold Japan?" is a question that recurs among foreign investors, now the greatest cohort of investors in Japanese stocks.  The question tends to arise much more during cyclical downturns, as investors reassess their holdings.  Japan's lukewarm economic expansion as well as uncertainty surrounding events overseas still compel investors to justify their Japan allocation with a sound investment thesis, even if there are no imminent plans for portfolio reallocation.  As in the first installment of the series, Why Hold Japan, Part I: Relative Tax Regimes , we once again focus on comparative metrics within the world's largest developed economies.  This time, we focus upon relative growth cycles and comparative valuation among G7 bourses.  On the macroeconomic side, we find Japan far less of an under-performer than it was at its cyclical trough in 2011-2012.  Aggregate index valuation metrics meanwhile show valuations in Japan to be far less inflated than in 2006 (mid expansion cycle) or 2011 (mid contraction cycle), while Return on Equity is much more in line with its G7 counterparts than in either of these historical periods.  There remain signals of greater longer-term under-valuation of smaller listed firms in particular among TOPIX constituents.

Why Hold Japan, Part II: Comparative Valuation Among G7 Economies

Independent, global risk consultancy, Control Risks

Aparajita Verma

Independent, global risk consultancy

Control Risks

Control Risks is an independent, global risk consultancy specialising in helping organisations manage political, integrity and security risks in complex and hostile environments. We support clients by providing strategic consultancy, expert analysis and in-depth investigations, handling sensitive political issues and providing practical on-the-ground protection and support.

Our unique combination of services, geographical reach and the trust our clients place in us ensure we can help them to effectively solve their problems and realise new opportunities across the world.

Donald Trump has been elected as the next US president. However, unlike Clinton, Trump did not comprehensively outline his domestic and foreign policies. As a result, there is considerable uncertainty about which policies he will pursue in office, and how aggressively he will do so. Based on the campaign, and the key issues in the global landscape, this note outlines six things companies need to know in the wake of the historic 2016 US presidential election.

Donald Trump has been elected as the next US president. However, unlike Clinton, Trump did not comprehensively outline his domestic and foreign policies. As a result, there is considerable uncertainty about which policies he will pursue in office, and how aggressively he will do so. Based on the campaign, and the key issues in the global landscape, this note outlines six things companies need to know in the wake of the historic 2016 US presidential election.

US Election Global Implications: Top Six Issues

Japan

Mitsubishi Electric Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets electronic equipment.  The Company's products include industrial machinery, heavy electric machinery, data communications systems, electronic devices, and consumer electronics.

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Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JP)

The Rally in Transport Continues in Twists and Turns

Note: wins and losses are listed at the end of the piece.Transport has been on a roll. A month ago we saw crazy buying any which way with weak...

Charles De Trenck

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Kioxia, CK Hutchison, Toshiba/ROHM

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Global Port Operators - 3Q16 Profitability Trends Lower on Slackening Growth

Results of listed terminal operators reveal a weakness in organic earnings as gearing increases. Stricter cost rationalisation and financial risk...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Why Hold Japan, Part II: Comparative Valuation Among G7 Economies

"Why Hold Japan?" is a question that recurs among foreign investors, now the greatest cohort of investors in Japanese stocks. The question tends...

Naomi Fink

US Election Global Implications: Top Six Issues

Donald Trump has been elected as the next US president. However, unlike Clinton, Trump did not comprehensively outline his domestic and foreign...

Control Risks

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